GD's Political Animal: November 2024

Saturday, November 30, 2024

Canada's in a "vibecession" says Finance Minister

Deputy PM and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says that Canada is experiencing a "vibecession".

Freeland's 'Vibecession' economics are TikTok nonsense | National Post | Terry Newman:

November 27, 2024 - "This week, while promoting the universally-panned Liberal government’s two-month GST tax holiday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told Canadians that they are simply experiencing a 'disconnect' between her Liberal government’s messaging on the state of the economy and their own practical day-to-day economic realities. The fact we aren’t 'feeling' the messaging ... is 'not great' for our economy, we are told. It affects our economic behaviour. It’s so bad, in fact, that 'a lot of economists' have gone so far as to diagnose the rejection of the Liberals’ economic outlook as a 'vibecession.'

"If this ridiculous diagnostic term sounds like it came from a 25-year-old TikTok influencer — that’s because it did. Kyla Scanlon, a resident of Louisville, Ky., has been described as an American financial content creator.... Her coined term 'vibecession' appeared on her Summer 2022 Substack where she asked her readers at the time, 'Are we manifesting a recession?'

"The post appears exactly as you might expect. It rambles in the pseudo-psychological self-help tone we’ve come to expect from Gen-Z: 'I know that there is too much going on to even begin to process what is happening, and I am hoping to talk about *why* some of the stuff feels so weird and bad in this piece. I sincerely hope that you are doing okay.' Its opening stickman graphic suggests that, to solve our 'vibecession,' we simply need to dam up the “discourse” from our river of bad vibes to prevent it from washing over our reality. It even includes a Charles Bukowski poem.

"The same year, Scanlon’s theory that we are manifesting a poor economy rather than the more obvious explanation that we are suffering through one, somehow made it all the way to the New York Times as a guest essay titled, 'The Vibes in the Economy Are … Weird. Really Weird.' Interestingly, the link to the study that purports to prove her theory that it is vibes and not our economic realities that affect our spending behaviours has since been 'unalived.' The link is dead.

"In 2024, Scanlon’s theory made its way to its proper home in 'Cultural Vibrations: New Paradigms 2024,' a journal published by 'thesis-led venture capital firm' Hannah Grey. One page of the journal titled, 'Navigating the Vibecession,' is dedicated to Scanlon’s TikTok page. In fact, the entire page is screenshots of Kyla’s face on TikTok with topic thought bubbles including 'Zuck goggles,' 'confusing data,' and 'Tswift nostalgia' — which I can only assume has something to do with Taylor Swift.

"As of September this year, the Biden White House and Federal Reserve starting taking her musings as serious economic advice. So, directly or indirectly, a 25-year-old Kyla Scanlon was the 'economist' Freeland was referring to when she claimed the vibecession is on us. But it’s not the fault, by any means, of a 25-year-old TikTok star that a major media outlet and governments have used her cultural musings as economic advice. That’s on them....

"Occam’s razor states the simplest explanation is usually the best, and here it is: People are not spending. And it isn’t because we have bad vibes. Forgive me the personal anecdote, but groceries to feed my family of four cost $1,000 a month not that long ago. Now, they cost over $1,400.... Likewise, gas prices have risen. None of this has to do with 'feelings.' None of it has been manifested into existence by myself or other Canadians.

"Don’t let the Liberal government gaslight you into accepting the cultural theories of a TikTok influencer as an explanation for your economic realities — what you’re experiencing is the very real effects of nine years of Liberal governance and poor polices. You did not bring this on yourselves."

No, Canada Is NOT Suffering From A Vibecession | IceCap Canadian Market Wrap Episode 14 | November 28, 2024:

Friday, November 29, 2024

New York state senator calls for secession

New York state senator Liz Kreuger is calling for New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont to secede from the United States and ask to join Canada.

NY Official Proposes New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, And Vermont Join Canada As New Province | International Business Times | Sarah Ian:

November 28, 2024 - "As tensions rise over President-elect Donald Trump's impending second term, a Democratic state senator from New York has suggested a drastic solution: secession. Liz Krueger, chair of the New York State Senate Finance Committee, has proposed that New York leave the United States and join Canada, arguing that Trump's policies threaten the state's progressive values and federal funding, according to Washington Examiner.

Liz Krueger in 2019. Photo by New York Senate.

CC BY 2.0, Wikimedia Commons.

"Krueger, a prominent Democrat from Manhattan, has gained attention for her unconventional proposals to counter Trump's administration. Among these are withholding federal taxes and a call for New York, along with other liberal states like Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont, to secede and become a province of Canada....

"'It's not unreasonable to think outside of the box,' Krueger stated during an interview with Politico. She cited Trump's planned mass deportations and his threats to withhold federal funding from sanctuary states as reasons for her proposals.

"Krueger highlighted the financial stakes involved. New York contributes approximately $362 billion annually in tax revenue to the federal government but relies on $85 billion in federal aid, much of it earmarked for Medicaid. She argued that withholding tax payments could serve as leverage if Trump follows through on his threats to cut funding....

"Krueger's vision of New York joining Canada stems from her frustration with federal policies she perceives as harmful. She first proposed the idea in September, before Trump's election victory.

"'Why do I have to leave this country? I love this country,' she said. 'But if Trump wins a second term, it's not actually my fault or the fault of people in New York. I thought I'd suggest to Canada that, instead of us all trying to illegally cross the border at night, they let us become a new southeast province.' According to Krueger, New York's progressive values align more closely with Canada's political philosophy than with Trump's America.

Thursday, November 28, 2024

Canadian jailed in Dubai for medical cannabis

Canadian Maurice Kevin O'Rourke has been sentenced to life in prison for possession of medical cannabis and CBD oil, after his luggage was searched during a flight layover in Dubai.

Canadian man, 64, sentenced to life in Dubai prison for medical marijuana possession | Western Standard | Jen Hodgson:

November 27, 2024 - "Maurice Kevin O'Rourke, a 64-year-old carpenter from Mississauga, ON, with Addison’s disease, was caught with CBD oil and medical cannabis in Dubai and sentenced to life in prison. O'Rourke was prescribed the CBD oil and cannabis, which are legal in Canada, to manage chronic pain from the disease. While travelling from Canada to South Africa, he had a layover in Dubai — where the CBD and cannabis were discovered in his luggage.

"O’Rourke was detained and taken to prison in Al Awir, United Arab Emirates on July 3, where he was handed down a life sentence. He is appealing the sentence and has a trial scheduled to start on Christmas Day.

O'Rourke before and after arrest. Western Standard.

“'Our world fell apart. Our daughter Maegan and I are shattered. We're in disbelief,” said his wife Pamela O'Rourke after the ruling, according to the Daily Mail. 'Kevin accepts that he shouldn't have travelled while on medication but he doesn't deserve to spend the rest of his life in prison'....

"Mrs. O'Rourke said her husband developed an 'open wound' in prison. 'In three months he went from being strong and healthy to being in a wheelchair. It's been incredibly distressing and life threatening for him,' she said.

"The O’Rourke family has some help from Radha Stirling, crisis manager and CEO of human rights organization Detained in Dubai, but she worries 'Kevin will not survive.... Dubai's prison system will not provide adequate medical care and he will be deprived of necessary medication and care,' Stirling told the Mail. 'The suffering of prisoners is not of concern to authorities in the UAE'....

"Stirling called on the Canadian government and Mississauga MP Peter Fonseca to help get O’Rourke home, noting neither country would want a foreign death while in custody. 'We have seen rapists and murderers sentenced to just a few years in jail. How can the courts sentence an older man to life in prison for possessing medication for personal use?'...

'“Dubai needs to be sensible here. He was just in transit and did not intentionally put himself in harm's way. He is ill and in need of ongoing and constant medical care.... [W]e hope the government of Dubai will understand and allow him to come home.'”

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Minnesota gov't sends trans rapists to women's prisons

The office of Minnesota governor Tim Walz gave nearly $500,000 to a lobby suing the state to have trans-identified convicts sent to women's prisons.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, 2024. Office of Gov. Tim Walz / Wikimedia Commons.

At Least FIVE Male Inmates Transferred To Minnesota Women’s Prison, Including Two Convicted Pedophiles | Reduxx | Genevieve Gluck:

September 11, 2024 - "A total of five male convicts were transferred to a Minnesota’s women-only prison following the adoption of a gender identity policy by the Department of Corrections in January of 2023. Two of the men who are now being held at MCF-Shakopee, a female correctional center, are sexual predators serving sentences related to the abuse of children.

"Among them are Elijah Thomas Berryman, 26, who was first arrested in April 2022 and accused of sexually abusing a minor multiple times. He pleaded guilty to four counts of first-degree criminal sexual conduct in March of this year, and according to the Minnesota DOC website, is currently serving his 25-year sentence at the women’s prison.

"Another, Sean Windingland, 35, sexually assaulted two 6-year-old relatives and posted videos of the abuse and grooming on pornography and pro-pedophile websites. Windingland admitted to engaging in sexual contact with the young girls when questioned by investigators, but claimed that the children had consented. He pleaded guilty to two counts of first-degree criminal sexual conduct in 2019. Windingland is now serving his 36-year prison sentence among women at MCF-Shakopee.

"[A] third, Bradley Richard Sirvio, is a convicted murderer who is serving a life sentence. Sirvio, 52, beat a man to death with a hammer before setting his house on fire in November of 1995. A repeat offender, Sirvio... was quietly transferred to MCF-Shakopee in November 2023, a full five months ahead of the date that a newly-drafted gender identity policy was set to take effect.

"The two remaining men confirmed by Reduxx to have been transferred into the women’s prison are Nathan Charles Johnson, ... and a trans-identified male who uses the name Christina Suzanne Lusk, but was born Craig Lusk. In June 2022, Lusk launched a discrimination lawsuit against the Minnesota Department of Corrections which ultimately resulted in the implementation of measures permitting male convicts to be housed in the female estate.

"Lusk ... was backed by the trans activist non-profit organization Gender Justice – which was recently revealed to have received nearly $500,000 in taxpayer funds from the administration of Governor Tim Walz. The Democratic vice presidential nominee’s office handed out $448,904 to Gender Justice just one year after the organization filed the sex discrimination complaint against Minnesota’s DOC on behalf of Lusk, according to a review of public records published by the taxpayer watchdog group OpenTheBooks.com.""

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Lessons from Canada's Randy Scandal

Canada's Randy Scandal illustrates why DEI politics and government contracting should be kept separate.

The Randy Boissonnault saga shows why identity politics and federal contracts shouldn’t mix | The Hub | Sabrina Maddeaux:

Randy Boissonnault in 2018. Photo by

Mack Male. CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikipedia Commons.

November 22, 2024 - "It takes more than your average scandal to get a cabinet minister removed from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government.... But Randy Boissonnault, the now-former Employment minister, finally managed this practically unheard-of feat. On Wednesday, Trudeau announced Boissonnault would 'step away from cabinet effective immediately.' This comes after months of scrutiny on his former business Global Health Imports (GHI), which claimed to be 'Indigenous-owned' in bids for federal contracts even as Boissonnault’s Indigenous heritage claims shifted wildly.

"The saga and its fallout should extend far beyond Boissonnault and GHI, which are merely the most publicly recognizable tips of the iceberg that is the government’s Indigenous business procurement targets. These affirmative action style mandates should be scrapped, along with the very idea that government contracts should be awarded to favour certain identities.

"In 2021, Trudeau’s Liberals announced that a minimum of 5 percent of all federal department and agency contracts must go to Indigenous businesses. Even prior to these targets, a business’ inclusion in the government’s Indigenous Business Directory meant favourable treatment and limited competition for some contracts. However, like many well-intentioned, poorly executed diversity initiatives, ... such programs create perverse incentives to cheat the system, are practically impossible to audit at scale, and often fail to help the communities they claim to serve. Moreover, they fail to guarantee top value for taxpayer dollars....

"There have been other high-profile reports of alleged fraud and misrepresentations of Indigenous ownership that did result in major federal contracts. The most notable is the ArriveCan app, which saw a $7.9 million contract go to Dalian Enterprises Inc, self-described as 'Aboriginally owned, veteran operated.' The company has received more than $200 million in federal contracts since 2015, although it’s now suspended from working on existing contracts or bidding for new ones.... {I]t’s alleged Dalian, after securing a government contract, would [disburse] government funds and the work to other, non-Indigenous contractors. Indeed, when questioned by MPs about his firm’s work on ArriveCan, Dalian’s president and founder could barely articulate what his company did on the project and admitted to typically subcontracting out federal work to other companies. There have also been questions about the validity of his [indigenous] heritage claims....

"In 2016, it was discovered that Canadian Health Care Agency (CHCA), a major nursing contractor for remote and Indigenous communities, got itself listed on the federal Indigenous Business Directory by entering into a partnership with a one-person foot-care company owned by a First Nations nurse. However, the nurse had next to no say in the company and, worse, was eventually pinned with a $500,000 tax bill when the arrangement was audited. While CHCA was removed from the Indigenous Business Directory as of 2019, ... [i]t has since received at least 30 contracts from Indigenous Services Canada, totalling $131.7 million....

"Indigenous leaders themselves are ringing the alarm that the federal government’s Procurement Strategy for Indigenous Business (PSIB) is deeply flawed. In September, Assembly of First Nations (AFN) Regional Chief Joanna Bernard told a House committee, 'There is currently no consistent way of verifying the legitimacy of Indigenous businesses, which creates a risk of false claims, tokenism … [and] exploitation [by] bad actors.'

"While some may argue for increased auditing or different methods of identity verification, the reality is neither are realistic solutions. The federal government simply doesn’t have the capacity to —nor should it dedicate mass resources to — successfully audit a program that incentivizes fraud by being based on difficult-to-verify identity claims and ownership percentages.... We simply don’t know how much of the massive amount of public money earmarked for Indigenous contracts actually flows to Indigenous entrepreneurs.... The government isn’t able to assure the public their taxes aren’t going to frauds and frontmen, let alone that we get the best value and outcomes from the best companies for our money....

"Boissonnault’s time in cabinet didn’t end with the legacy he hoped, but it would be a shame for such a scandal to go to waste, used only for partisan barbs rather than a push for much-needed, common-sense reform. Procurement may be a typically wonkish topic, but it couldn’t be more vital to how Canadians experience government and access services. Federal policy must abandon its misguided adventures in identity politics to laser-focus on results."

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Trudeau gov't loses bid for absolute immunity

Canada's Supreme Court has rejected the Trudeau government's claim that it enjoys absolute immunity from being sued for damages caused by its unconstitutional laws.

CCF pleased by SCC ruling no absolute immunity from damages for Charter-violating laws | Canadian Constitution Foundation (news release):

July 19, 2024 - "The Canadian Constitution Foundation [CCF] is pleased that the Supreme Court of Canada has ruled that the state is not entitled to absolute immunity from damages when it enacts unconstitutional legislation that infringes Charter rights. In a 5-4 decision released Friday [July 19] in Attorney General of Canada v Joseph Power, Chief Justice Wagner and Justice Karakatsanis for a majority of the court decided that the state may be required to pay damages for passing legislation that meets the very high threshold of being clearly unconstitutional, passed in bad faith or that amounts to an abuse of power.

"The Trudeau government had argued that it had absolute immunity from paying damages for its enactments based on the constitutional principles of the separation of powers, parliamentary sovereignty and parliamentary privilege.

"The government claimed that damages for enactments of even clearly unconstitutional legislation would open the floodgates to claims and chill them from passing constitutional laws out of concern they would later be on the hook for payments.

"The applicant, Joseph Power, had argued that there was no absolute immunity, and that he should receive damages to compensate him for the harm cause by the enactment of laws that retroactively removed access to pardons, which were passed despite being in clear violation of the protections in section 11 of the Charter against being punished twice for the same crime.

"The CCF intervened in the case to argue that the government is not entitled to absolute immunity. Section 24(1) of the Charter states that damages are available where 'appropriate and just in the circumstances.' The CCF said damages must be available in some exceptional circumstances. The majority agreed.'By shielding the government from liability in even the most egregious circumstances, absolute immunity would subvert the principles that demand government accountability,' Chief Justice Wagner and Justice Karakatsanis wrote.

"The majority also agreed with the CCF on when damages should be available. The Court agreed that there ought not be damages available for merely negligent enactments, but they should be available where the legislation is unconstitutional on its face, where the state was reckless or wilfully blind as to a law’s unconstitutionality and where there was evidence of bad faith or an abuse of power including where the state acted dishonestly or with an improper purpose.

"CCF Executive Director Joanna Baron said she was pleased by the outcome. 'The CCF is relieved that the Supreme Court has recognized that important constitutional principles like parliamentary sovereignty and the separation of powers cannot justify an absolute immunity from damages where the government passes laws that are flagrantly or knowingly unconstitutional,' Baron said. 'Today’s decision gets it right by clarifying that although claimants who seek damages will have a high test to meet, they will still be able to hold governments to account where the Constitution requires damages to vindicate their rights and compensate them,' she added.

"CCF Litigation Director Christine Van Geyn said she believes the threat of having to pay damages will help to deter future governments from passing laws that they know violate the Constitution. 'From banning Indigenous potlatch ceremonies to interning innocent Japanese-Canadians during the Second World War, Canada’s pre-Charter history is sadly full of examples of Parliaments that passed laws that were clearly unconstitutional,' Van Geyn said. 'If the freezing of bank accounts during the freedom convoy is any indication, we still can’t trust Parliament to never enact unconstitutional laws,' she added. 'Today’s decision recognizes that.'

"The CCF was represented in this case by George Avraam, Jennifer Bernardo and Rono Khan of Baker McKenzie."

Trudeau's government wanted ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY from being sued for unconstitutional laws... THEY LOST | Canadian Constitution Foundation | July 30, 2024:

Saturday, November 23, 2024

Did modern monetary theory elect Trump?

Modern monetary theory (MMT) argues that the federal government, as the sole issuer of legal tender, can issue virtually limitless amounts of new money to fund itself. The years 2020-2024 in the USA provided an unambiguous test of this theory.

Did modern monetary theory elect Donald Trump? | Hill Times | Phillip Magness and Alexander William Salter:

November 19, 2024 - "[M]odern monetary theory is a fringe school of economic thought arguing that the federal government, as the sole issuer of legal tender, can issue virtually limitless amounts of new money to fund itself. Bucking thousands of years of evidence that such reckless policies lead to currency devaluation, advocates shirk all blame when inflation occurs, insisting instead that prices increased due to 'corporate greed' and 'price gouging.' Perhaps some of that sounds familiar....

"The Biden-Harris administration began its term assuming it could 'run the economy hot' while also avoiding inflation. They added another multi-trillion-dollar stimulus to Trump-era COVID relief spending, believing they could escape the repercussions of its price tag..... On the fiscal side, extravagant spending greatly increased government indebtedness. On the monetary side, running the printing press to keep interest rates low flooded financial markets with liquidity. The predictable result was too much money chasing too few goods — the classic recipe for dollar depreciation, better known as inflation.

"When the first signs of an inflationary spiral appeared in summer 2021, the White House responded with an official stance of denialism. Price level increases were only 'transitory,' they assured us, adopting a talking point from modern monetary theory theorist Stephanie Kelton.

"As the problem lingered ... the White House doubled down on fringe theories, such as blaming 'corporate greed' instead of its own spending habits. As recently as July 2024, Council of Economic Advisors chair Jared Bernstein adopted the modern monetary theory-aligned inflation narrative of economist Isabella Weber, who contends that producers made an 'implicit agreement' to exploit a price shock during the pandemic and extract profits from the public.... Kamala Harris attempted to turn this conspiratorial reasoning into policy by proposing price controls at the grocery store — a scheme rejected by most economists, but championed by Weber, Kelton and other modern monetary theory advocates....

"Modern monetary theory fooled Washington’s elite because its message was seductive: If there’s any slack in the economy and the government prints and spends in its own currency, policymakers don’t need to worry about price hikes. The years 2020-2024 provided an unambiguous test of this theory. The answer: It’s bunk.

"Consumer price inflation peaked at 9 percent during the summer of 2022. Central bankers were late to the game to tighten, even adopting the modern monetary theory talking point about “transitory” inflation for a brief but critical moment in early 2021. Elected Democrats scrambled to minimize the role their profligacy had played in forcibly raising the cost of living, culminating in Harris’s grocery store price control proposal as the centerpiece of her economic platform....

"Fed officials should have predicted the consequences of keeping money growth above economic growth for so long. President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris should have recognized that continued fiscal follies would pressure the Fed to embrace money mischief, and that price controls simply made the administration look economically illiterate and out of touch. This rhetoric began as a convenient political argument for stimulus spending, then morphed into an act of self-deception on the part of the Harris campaign.

"As election day exit polling revealed, the electorate repudiated the modern monetary theory narrative. Americans are fed up with over-credentialed experts inventing new reasons to ignore basic economics. The laptop class has only itself to blame for elevating these fringe theories, thereby facilitating Trump’s electoral comeback."

Modern Monetary Theory explained | Economics Understood | April 25, 2021:

Friday, November 22, 2024

McDonald's gets right to fix its ice cream machines

McDonald's gets legal right to fix its ice cream machines

More McFlurrys: US Copyright Office allows McDonald's to fix broken ice cream machines | USA Today | Max Hauptman:

October 29, 2024 - "A broken ice cream machine is a familiar inconvenience to McDonald's customers. Franchise owners have complained about difficulties fixing the machines, McDonald's itself has poked fun at how often the machines are seemingly broken, and there is even a dedicated independent site for customers to see when and where they might be denied a McFlurry.

"Those worries may soon be a thing of the past, after the U.S. Copyright Office issued a new set of exemptions last week that allows restaurants to repair equipment used in 'retail-level commercial food preparation,' which includes those soft-serve ice cream machines used to make McFlurrys. Public Knowledge, a consumer advocacy group, and e-commerce website iFixit petitioned the U.S. Copyright Office for the exemption, which went into effect Monday....

"Section 1201 of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act makes it illegal for third parties to bypass digital locks on any copyrighted materiel, including software used in commercial devices like those McDonald's ice cream machines, even for repairs. What that has meant for McFlurry fans until Monday is that every time an ice cream machine in a McDonald's location breaks or has any kind of technical problem, it can only be repaired by the manufacturer and copyright holder.

"Since 1956, McDonald's has partnered with the Taylor Company, an Illinois-based manufacturer, for its ice cream machines, leaving only the Taylor Company with the 'right to repair' them. According to iFixit, which looked inside a McDonald's ice cream machine last year, the devices contain "lots of easily replaceable parts.'

Food Theory: McDonald's FINALLY Fixed Its Ice Cream Machines! | Food Theorists | November 19, 2024:

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Child poverty increasing in Canada since 2020

Statistics Canada figures show that the percentage of Canadian children living in poverty has increased from 2020 to 2022 (the latest year for which statistics are available).

After years of decline, child poverty in Canada is rising swiftly: report | CBC News | Peter Zimonjic:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reading to children in 2019.

November 19, 2024 "Child poverty is rising swiftly in Canada ... says a new report from Campaign 2000. The anti-poverty group's annual report card on child and family poverty in Canada found that there are now 1.4 million children living in poverty across the country, with another 360,000 children falling into poverty over the last two years....

"Campaign 2000 has been issuing its annual report card on poverty since 1991. This year's report looks at the change from 2021 to 2022 and concludes that during that time, 'child poverty increased in every province and territory.'

"'The sharp increase in national child poverty rates from 2020 to 2021 was the first in 10 years and appears to signal a reversal in the downward trend that began in 2015,' the report said. 'Most alarming was the 2.5 percentage point jump from 2021 to 2022, the largest annual increase in child poverty [since 2000]. Federal strategies for poverty reduction are failing children, families and all of society....'

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government introduced the Canada Child Benefit (CCB) in its first budget. The CCB, which restructured several payments and tax credits into one benefit, came with a promise that nine out of 10 families would be better off....

"According to the Statistics Canada data used by Campaign 2000, 20.9 per cent of children under the age of 18 were living in poverty in Canada when the Liberals came to power. Over the next five years, that percentage gradually reduced — first to 19.6 per cent in 2016, then to 18.6 per cent in 2017.... The child poverty rate then dropped significantly to 13.5 per cent in 2020, when the federal government rolled out its pandemic support program.

"But since pandemic benefits stopped flowing and inflation started rising, poverty among children and families has been on the rise, first to 15.6 per cent in 2021 and then to 18.1 per cent in 2022.... While that rate is still almost three percentage points lower than it was when the Liberals came to power, Campaign 2000 is concerned that the rate is now trending upward again.

"The anti-poverty group's report card found that in nine of 13 provinces and territories, the number of children under the age of 18 living in poverty was higher than the national average of 18.1 per cent. The percentage was lower than that average in Quebec, B.C., P.E.I. and Yukon....

"Nunavut had the highest child poverty rate in the country at 41.8 per cent, followed closely by Manitoba at 27.1 per cent and Saskatchewan at 26.7 per cent. Yukon and Quebec had the lowest child poverty rates in the country at 12 per cent each, followed by B.C. at 16.7 per cent and P.E.I. at 16.8 per cent."

Wednesday, November 20, 2024

Rand Paul opposes using military for deportations

Senator Rand Paul is strongly opposed to using the U.S. military to enforce deportation measures.

Sen. Paul to Newsmax: Military Should Not Be Used for Deportations | Newsmax | Jim Thomas:

November 19, 2024 - "Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., has voiced strong opposition to using the U.S. military to enforce deportation measures, emphasizing that immigration enforcement should remain the responsibility of domestic law enforcement agencies on Newsmax Tuesday. Paul, a member of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, criticized the idea of deploying the military to enforce immigration policies, calling it a 'terrible image' for the United States.

"In an interview on Rob Schmitt Tonight, Paul addressed reports that President-elect Donald Trump or his spokesman suggested declaring an emergency to involve the military in deportation efforts.... 'I'm not in favor of sending the Army in uniforms into our cities to collect people, Paul said. 'That's not what we use our military for; we never have. And it's actually been illegal for over 100 years to bring the Army into our cities.'

"Paul underscored that the military's purpose is distinct from domestic law enforcement. 'Our Army and our military are trained to shoot the enemy. They're not trained to get a warrant to do what they're doing,' he said, adding that 'the police have a difficult job, but the people removing people from our country need to be a police enforcement domestic agency, not the military'....

"The senator advocated for prioritizing the deportation of undocumented individuals who have committed violent crimes. Citing statistics, Paul noted that the U.S. is harboring approximately 15,000 individuals who have committed murder and 13,000 who have committed violent sexual crimes....

"Paul further criticized the broader use of presidential emergencies, describing them as undermining congressional authority and checks and balances. 'They smack of martial rule. They smack of no congressional approval,' he warned.

"While supporting strong immigration enforcement, Paul urged caution in implementing extreme measures. 'The American people will be behind him 100% if he goes immediately after the people that have committed crimes,' he said, advocating ... focusing first on individuals who pose clear risks to public safety.

He also expressed reservations about targeting long-term undocumented residents who have integrated into American society. 'The housekeeper who's been here 30 years — I don't see the military putting her in handcuffs and marching her down the street to an encampment,' Paul said. Instead, he proposed expanding work permits for certain individuals while denying them voting rights.

"Paul concluded by advising conservatives to temper their support for drastic actions involving the military. 'We, as conservatives who are supportive of Trump, need to caution him about sending the army into our cities,' he said. 'It's a terrible image to send the world, and it's a terrible image for us as citizens.'"

Rand Paul explains where Trump should 'think twice' on deportation operation | Rob Schmitt Tonight | Newsmax | November 19, 2024:

Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Alberta joins U.S. states' energy pact

Alberta premier Danielle Smith has signed on to the 12-state Governors' Coalition for Energy Security.

Alberta joins U.S. energy coalition to secure North America’s energy future | True North Wire | Isaac Lamoureux:

November 17, 2024 - "Alberta has become the first non-U.S. [political entity] to join a United States energy pact featuring 12 states that had already signed onto the coalition. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith made the announcement Thursday, personally thanking Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu for inviting her, along with President-elect Donald Trump. Smith also thanked the other ten governors involved.

"Smith said that Alberta’s role in North American energy security is vital as the largest crude oil and natural gas supplier to the United States.

With 200 billion barrels of recoverable oil, 200 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, significant natural gas liquids and ample pore space for carbon capture, Alberta’s contribution is set to grow even further as we look to work with the Trump Administration and other U.S. partners to increase our pipeline capacity to our greatest friend and ally, the United States.... We are proud to collaborate with this coalition of allied states in advancing energy security, reliability and affordability for Americans and Canadians....

"Alberta currently accounts for 56% of oil imports into the United States, double Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq combined.

"Landry said that the pact’s members share the goal of enhancing and protecting energy security, which he said will lead to lower energy costs, increased reliability, sustainable economic development, and wise management of energy resources and the environment. '

“I welcome Premier Smith and the insights she will bring as the leader from a fellow energy-producing province that, like my state, is under a federal system of government where national imperatives are not always aligned with state or provincial interests,' said Landry.

"The United States is the largest trading partner with Alberta, having $188 billion in bilateral trade in 2023. Energy products accounted for more than 80%, approximately $133.6 billion, of Alberta’s exports to the United States in 2023....

Alberta is a global leader in emissions reduction technologies and clean energy solutions. 'The province has captured about 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide through carbon capture, utilization and storage technology, and has the ability to support the U.S. in developing new infrastructure and supply chains for future energy markets in the areas of hydrogen, renewables, small modular reactors and others,” reads Alberta’s press release.

"The newly renamed Governors’ Coalition for Energy Security listed its goals in the press release issued by the Governor of Louisiana[:] ... 'to ensure families and businesses have the right to choose the energy they need, to minimize permitting and other regulatory barriers, limit expensive energy mandates, focus on affordability and reliability of energy infrastructure, and to coordinate to positively manage energy resources and the environment,' reads the press release....

"Smith issued an additional statement on Friday, saying she won’t wait for the [Canadian federal] Liberals to strengthen energy trade.... \

Alberta’s energy sector is a cornerstone of North America’s prosperity and we’re ready to work with our partners in the United States, especially @realDonaldTrump, to ensure that remains true.... Alberta’s resources are critical to energy security, economic growth, and the strong ties between our countries. Together, we can build a future that benefits both sides of the border — because when Alberta succeeds, the United States thrives. Let’s power that future, hand in hand.

"The 12 signatory states included in the energy pact are Louisiana, New Hampshire, Indiana, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Virginia."

We can’t sacrifice U.S. friendship if Mexico is a trade irritant: Alberta premier | Power & Politics | CBC News | November 15, 2024:

Monday, November 18, 2024

Covid vaccines may have fuelled excess deaths

For the first time that I am aware of, a scientific journal has published an article suggesting that Covid vaccines have contributed to the spike in excess deaths since 2020.

Source; BBC.

Covid vaccines may have helped fuel rise in excess deaths | The Telegraph | Sarah Knapton:

June 5, 2024 - "Covid vaccines could be partly to blame for the rise in excess deaths since the pandemic, scientists have suggested. Researchers from The Netherlands analysed data from 47 Western countries and discovered there had been more than three million excess deaths since 2020, with the trend continuing despite the rollout of vaccines and containment measures....

"Writing in the BMJ Public Health, the authors from Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, said: 'Although Covid-19 vaccines were provided to guard civilians from suffering morbidity and mortality by the Covid-19 virus, suspected adverse events have been documented as well. Both medical professionals and citizens have reported serious injuries and deaths following vaccination to various official databases in the Western World.'

"They added: 'During the pandemic, it was emphasised by politicians and the media on a daily basis that every Covid-19 death mattered and every life deserved protection through containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the same moral[ity] should apply.'

"The study found that across Europe, the US and Australia there had been more than one million excess deaths in 2020, at the height of the pandemic, but also 1.2 million in 2021 and 800,000 and 2022 after measures were implemented. Researchers said the figure included deaths from Covid-19, but also the 'indirect effects of the health strategies to address the virus spread and infection'.

"They warned that side effects linked to the Covid vaccine had included ischaemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome and brain haemorrhage, cardiovascular diseases, coagulation, haemorrhages, gastrointestinal events and blood clotting.

"German researchers have pointed out that the onset of excess mortality in early 2021 in the country coincided with the rollout of vaccines.... However, more recent data regarding side-effects has not been made available to the public, with countries keeping their own individual databases of harms, which rely on self-reporting by the public and doctors, the experts warned....

"Researchers said that it was 'likely' that the impact of containment measures, restricted healthcare and socioeconomic upheaval during the pandemic had contributed to deaths.... Gordon Wishart, chief medical officer at Check4Cancer, and visiting professor of cancer surgery at Anglia Ruskin University, warned repeatedly that delaying cancer diagnosis would lead to deaths. 'It was predicted early in the lockdown period that limited access to healthcare for non-Covid conditions would lead to delays in the diagnosis and treatment of time-critical conditions such as cancer, cardiac disease, diabetes and dementia and that this would lead to excess deaths from these conditions,' he said....

"Speaking about the potential for vaccine harm, Mr Wishart added: 'The authors are correct to point out that many vaccine-related serious adverse events may have been unreported, and point to the fact that the simultaneous onset of excess mortality and Covid vaccination in Germany is worthy of further investigation on its own. The paper provides more questions than answers but, it is hard to disagree with their conclusion that further analysis is required to understand the underlying causes of excess mortality to better prepare for the future management of pandemic crises'"

Read study: https://bmjpublichealth.bmj.com/content/2/1/e000282

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Poilievre seen as better choice to deal with Trump

Two-in-five (38%) of Canadians polled say Poilievre is better suited to deal with a second Donald Trump presidency, while 23% say Trudeau would be, and 25% say neither are up to the job.

Canadians prefer Trudeau to deal with Harris, Poilievre to work with Trump | Angus Reid Institute (news release):

November 4, 2024 – Canadians will join their American neighbours in watching results pour in tomorrow night for the U.S. election.... Regardless of who wins, the result will have a significant impact on Canada, as the United States remains this country’s closest ally and trading partner. Both Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and opposition leader Pierre Poilievre will make the case that they’re better suited to manage this relationship....

"Given the importance, economically, culturally and from a security standpoint, of the Canada-U.S. relationship, the Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians which of the two federal party leaders in Canada most likely to form government they feel is more suited to handle the relationship with each potential president....

"Trump had a rocky relationship with Trudeau during his first term. Though the two started on good terms, relations soured. Trump called the Canadian PM 'two-faced' after video surfaced of Trudeau and other world leaders reportedly joking about Trump. Since leaving office he has called Trudeau 'weak' and a 'far left lunatic'. The Liberal government has also made an effort to tie Poilievre to Trump and his divisive politics. Current polling suggests that correlation hasn’t borne much fruit....

"Canadians prefer Poilievre to have a go at the Trump relationship, rather than have Trudeau take it on a second time. Two-in-five (38%) say Poilievre is better suited, while 23 per cent say Trudeau would be. That said, one-quarter say neither (25%) are up to the job. Notably, Poilievre is the top choice in every province, other than in Quebec, where 'neither' wins:

"Poilievre receives more confidence among Liberal and NDP voters in this scenario but remains relatively uninspiring for these groups. The larger factor at play here is that every group is more likely to say that neither individual is up to the job with the unpredictable Trump at the helm....

"For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here. For full release including methodology, click here."

Friday, November 15, 2024

Abortion-rights activists score wins at state level

In the 2024 U.S. election. abortion-rights ballot measures passed in seven of ten states, including five won by Trump/Vance.

Abortion protest, New York, May 2022. Photo by Legoktm. CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons.

Pro-Choice Abortion Initiatives Pass in Seven Out of Ten States | Reason | Elizabeth Nolan Brown:

November 6, 2024 - "Measures meant to protect abortion access were approved by voters in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and New York.... Until yesterday, the pro-choice position [has] prevailed in every state where abortion-related measures were on the ballot, including in red states such as Kansas, Kentucky, and Ohio. That ... pattern is broken somewhat by results in Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota....

In Florida, 57 percent of voters supported Amendment 4, an Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion ... but it falls short of the 60 percent approval threshold required for constitutional amendments in Florida.
In Nebraska, 48.7 percent of voters approved the state's Right to Abortion measure, (Initiative 439), which would have amended the constitution to declare that 'all persons shall have a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability'.... [A] competing measure — Initiative 434 — passed 55.3 percent to 44.7 percent.... Initiative 434 ... allows for first trimester abortions but prohibits second and third trimester abortion unless 'necessitated by a medical emergency or when the pregnancy results from sexual assault or incest'....
[I]n South Dakota — where it's currently criminal to perform an abortion or prescribe abortion medication unless a pregnant woman's life is at risk ... [v]oters rejected Amendment G — a citizen-led initiative to enshrine abortion rights in the state's constitution— by almost 20 percentage points (with 87 percent of votes counted).....
In Arizona, voters approved Proposition 139, a measure that enshrines a 'fundamental right' to abortion until fetal viability in the state's constitution. Abortion is currently legal in Arizona only until 15 weeks pregnancy. Voters rejected this status quo, with about 62 percent voting for Proposition 139 with 60 percent of votes tallied.
In Missouri, where abortion is currently illegal except in medical emergencies, voters approved Amendment 3, a constitutional amendment declaring that 'the Government shall not deny or infringe upon a person's fundamental right to reproductive freedom, which is the right to make and carry out decisions about all matters relating to reproductive health care, including but not limited to prenatal care, childbirth, postpartum care, birth control, abortion care, miscarriage care, and respectful birthing conditions'....
In Maryland, where abortion is currently legal until fetal viability, voters overwhelmingly approved Question 1, also known as the Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment. The tally was about 74 percent for and just 26 percent with three-quarters of votes counted. Initiated by state lawmakers, ... the amendment says 'the State may not, directly or indirectly, deny, burden, or abridge the right [to an abortion] unless justified by a compelling State interest achieved by the least restrictive means.'
In Montana, where abortion is currently legal until fetal viability, voters approved The Right to Abortion Initiative, also known as CI-128. The measure will amend the state constitution to say 'there is a right to make and carry out decisions about one's own pregnancy, including the right to abortion,' and 'this right shall not be denied or burdened unless justified by a compelling government interest achieved by the least restrictive means'....
In Nevada, where abortion is now legal until 24 weeks pregnancy, voters approved Question 6.... The measure states that the right to an abortion 'shall not be denied, burdened, or infringed upon unless justified by a compelling state interest that is achieved by the least restrictive means.' With 84 percent of Nevada votes counted, it was up 63.3 percent to 36.7 percent. However, it must pass again in 2026 to be enacted.
In Colorado, where abortion is currently legal throughout pregnancy, voters passed Amendment 79.... The measure repeals a 1984 amendment prohibiting the use of public funds for abortion and creates a new constitutional amendment stating that 'the right to abortion is hereby recognized. Government shall not deny, impede, or discriminate against the exercise of that right, including prohibiting health insurance coverage for abortion'....

"Trump won Florida, Missouri, and Montana and ... Arizona and Nevada ... yet a majority of voters in these states, too, opted to support legal abortion."

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Trust in medical profession plummets in USA

In the past four years in the United States, public opinion of doctors and hospitals has changed from majority trust to majority mistrust.

Trust in Doctors and Hospitals Plummets | Brownstone Institute | Josh Stevenson:

September 5, 2024 - "A new paper in JAMA analyzes survey respondents in the US over the period of time right after the Covid pandemic started in April 2020 and through early 2024. It reveals a significant decline in trust in physicians and hospitals, dropping from 71.5% in April 2020, to 40.1% in January 2024. Lower trust levels were strongly associated with reduced likelihood of receiving Covid-19 vaccinations and boosters....

"One incredibly interesting part of this study was the revealing of the open-text responses that survey respondents gave for their lack of trust. From the supplement, here are the top 4 themes why patients have lost trust.

Financial Motives Over Patient Care: This theme includes perceptions of healthcare as primarily profit-driven, where financial incentives outweigh patient welfare. Respondents believe that decisions are made based on profitability rather than the best interests of patients.
Poor Quality of Care and Negligence: Responses that mention experiences of neglect, inadequate care, misdiagnosis, or dismissive attitudes from healthcare providers fall under this category. This also includes perceptions of healthcare professionals not listening or taking patient concerns seriously.
Influence of External Entities and Agendas: Here, the focus is on the belief that decisions in healthcare are unduly influenced by pharmaceutical companies, government entities, or other external powers. This includes suspicions of dishonesty or withholding information for nonmedical reasons.
Discrimination and Bias: Responses indicating experiences or beliefs that healthcare providers exhibit bias, discrimination, or lack of cultural competency. This can include racial discrimination, gender bias, or insensitivity to patient backgrounds.

"Another interesting analysis in the supplement was the inclusion of political affiliation. The tendency for Republicans and Independents to have lower trust overall than Democrats should not surprise anyone, as the polarization of vaccines, masks, and lockdowns made it clear that the left was in favor of doing anything at all in the name of combating Covid, no matter the cost.

"As we witnessed firsthand in 2020 and 2021, and even today, the condescension, overt political motivations, and outright derision directed at those who were rationally skeptical of a brand-new vaccine, masks, and the extreme and harmful lockdown policies by medical practitioners and hospital systems have finally led to an inevitable consequence: the public simply does not trust them anymore. And not by a small margin — there has been a massive swing from majority trust to majority distrust. For anyone who was paying attention, this is not shocking....

"I hope that the practitioners we truly need to rely on when we require medical care see this as a wake-up call and understand just how much damage they have done to their long-term doctor-patient relationships. Now, instead of starting from a place of trust, they are starting from a deficit. This is not just bad for their careers; it’s bad for the patients."

Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author.
https://brownstone.org/articles/trust-in-doctors-and-hospitals-plummets/

Read study: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2821693

Sunday, November 10, 2024

Chase Oliver has no regrets about campaign

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Chase Oliver says he has no regrets about his campaign, and that being the party's standard bearer was "the true honor of my life."

Chase Oliver Calls Libertarian Party Presidential Run 'Honor of My Lifetime' | Reason | Joe Lancaster:

November 6, 2024 - "While battleground states continue counting votes ... the Libertarian Party (L.P.) will fall short of its relative recent successes.... L.P. candidate Chase Oliver looks likely to underperform 2020's numbers, when candidate Jo Jorgensen won more than 1.8 million votes and 1.2 percent of the national total. Speaking from his election night watch party in Dallas, Texas, Oliver tells Reason he isn't surprised that he fell short of other recent L.P. presidential tickets, but he has no regrets....

"'I think we did the best we could, considering there's been a lot of headwinds in this campaign,' he says. 'First and foremost, the two-party system is always trying to relegate alternative parties' voice[s],' and 'internal disputes within the party…led to less than full-throated support from our national leadership'....

"This was the first presidential election since the L.P.'s takeover by the Mises Caucus, an internal party faction more conservative than the previous rank and file. Michael Heise, the Mises Caucus founder who helped engineer the party takeover, endorsed former President Donald Trump last week in a post on X. Over the weekend, L.P. Chair Angela McArdle shared a pro-Trump video and added, 'You know you wanna be a part of this. It is irresistible.'

Chase Oliver at FreedomFest, July 2024 Photo by

Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons.

"Oliver sees his campaign as indicative of the party's struggles, and he hopes it can turn around in the future: 'Our campaign is not the low-water mark. In fact, we've been seeing a downward trend … because leadership has just not been able to retain membership. And I think that's due to the internal conflict. That's due to focusing more on shooting inward at each other than actually doing the professional party building. And I'm going to be looking forward, as an activist, as a lifetime party member, as a former candidate for president, to be looking to find members of the Libertarian Party who want to professionalize our operations and put us into a growth mode.'

"That said, Oliver says he does not have regrets about his experience. 'Running as the presidential candidate for the Libertarian Party, the party that I love, for the principles that I stand by, has been the true honor of my life,' he says. 'Even with any headwinds that I faced, I know that I've done everything I can to try to spread the message of liberty in a positive way. I'm so thankful that I have a staff and volunteers across the country who have put in the work.'"

"Would he run again in the future? 'I think so,' he says. 'But what I need to do first is focus on building our party [so it] can properly support a presidential campaign the way we have in the past. And I think that's my work over the next four years … trying to identify people across the libertarian spectrum, in states across the country, who want to organize and really build our party up going forward, and not being the [junior varsity] league for the Republican Party, and not thinking that Donald Trump is what we have to settle [for] in this country.'"

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Democrats need to understand why they lost

American voters treated the 2024 election as a referendum on the governing Democratic Party's leftist economic and cultural policies, and voted a resounding no to them.

What Democrats must learn from Trump’s victory | MSNBC | Brendan Buck:

November 6, 2024 - "[F]ormer President Donald Trump is returning to power riding a wave of discontent with the political left in America. Many find themselves stunned, wondering how this could have happened, but no one should be surprised.... While the polls showed the race a dead heat, something else was going on just below the surface: For the first time in decades, more Americans were identifying as Republicans than as Democrats....

"It’s hard to argue that the GOP has suddenly become more appealing. Indeed, the favorability levels for both parties remain relatively low. And Trump did not offer the country a compelling or serious plan to address his party’s problems. Instead, he offered them an opportunity to reject the perceived leftward shift of progressivism and to stake a claim for conservative culture....

"The defeated Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, ran a traditional politics playbook: shore up the base and then appeal to the swing voters.... Her debut provided a jolt of energy. The campaign orchestrated a flawless convention. She slayed her opponent in their only debate. And she tacked to the center long abandoned by Trump. It wasn’t good enough.... Though much improved since her short-lived 2019 run for president, Harris is still not an extraordinary political talent, and her interviews and the unscripted moments left something to be desired. And perhaps voters didn’t buy her appeal to the political middle after years of standing as an unapologetic progressive....

"By contrast, there was no question of who Trump is and where he stands. He once again rejected our conventions of how to assemble a majority coalition and created a new one by turning out new voters, often young and male, who find him entertaining and Democrats to be a nagging bore. His campaign was a rejection of the traditional playbook, run instead on grievance and cultural appeals....

"Trump’s win should not be viewed as a broad affirmation of him or his platform.... Trump has his adoring fans, to be sure, but a vote for Trump was as much a message rejecting the perceived leftward shift across American institutions — not just our politics, but media, entertainment and universities.

"A vote for Trump was not just one for border security, but also a vote against limitless multiculturalism. It was a vote against journalists furious that their paper didn’t endorse Harris. It was a vote against encampments on college campuses. It was a vote against what they see as boys in girls sports.... It was a vote against anti-Trump Republicans who[m] they see as enabling the left....

"Democrats charged Trump with being a fascist. To little surprise, after nearly a decade of similar charges, this rhetoric failed to move persuadable voters. Warnings against authoritarianism and speaking in defense of democracy are noble, but they were not a winning message. Voters care more about how your plans will tangibly improve their lives. They also care about their way of life, as Trump understood.... I loathe culture war politics. But particularly in times of national division and turmoil, it’s a formula that works — and Trump has proved it yet again."

How Democrats are reacting to Trump’s 2024 presidential win | TODAY | November 6, 2024:

Thursday, November 7, 2024

Understanding the Trump landslide

Trump in Arizona, June 2024. Photo by

Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons.

As with many Canadians (and Americans) these days, my starting point for reading the daily news day is social media site, X. The site owner, Elon Musk, maintains a free speech policy one cannot find anywhere else. The advantage of that to me is that, after an hour or so, I can get both an overview of the news and a short list of stories to follow up for possible mention on my blog.

Yesterday, though, all I could find was one story that everyone wanted to post about, the 2024 American election result. It was not just that the Republicans won, but the size of their win. Not only did Donald Trump take the presidency; his party also took control of both houses of Congress. That is hyuge (as the new president would say) in the American system, where the Presidency and Congress (the executive and legislative branches) are formally independent. Let me emphasize its hyugeness by repeating it in its own paragraph.

( A ) In 2024, the Republicans won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House.

It seems that everyone on earth, or at least everyone on X, wants to talk about nothing else; and everyone has their own theory of why (A) occurred. One theory that I could not find anywhere on X was my own. I would like more people to know of my theory – not just because it was mine, but because it allowed me to predict (A) four years ago. Indeed, I offered my prediction at the time as a test of my theory: (A) happening would not prove my theory correct, but the failure of (A) to happen would have falsified this version of it.

I wrote up my theory, and made my prediction, back in November 2020, in an article called " US election results are more of the same ." I was commenting on the fact that:

( B ) in 2020, the Democrats won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House.

Checking back, I also discovered that:

( C ) In 2016, the Republicans won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House;

( D ) In 2008, the Democrats won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House;

( E ) In 2000, the Republicans won the Presidency, the Senate, and the House; and

( F ) In 1992, the Democrats won the Presidency, the Senate and the House.

To sum up: For the entire millennium so far, every incumbent president has been replaced by a challenger from the other party, in a repudiation of the incumbent's party. This repudiation has been total, with the challenger's party taking control of Congress as well as the White House.

Those are facts. Are they just a coincidence or is there a theory that explains them? The theory that I have come up with goes like this:

The first part follows from Ludwig von Mises' theory of interventionism. Mises taught that, while intervention was meant to be a compromise between minimal and total government, it would always tend toward the total. Each government intervention would have new, unintended consequences, new problems which had to be solved by yet more intervention. In that way, government would grow. But (and this is my own idea at this point), as government increased, so would the problems it created. It would tend to become a bigger, more commending government trying to perform ever more functions; but it would also increasingly tend to fail at performing any of those functions well. It would increasingly tend to fail at even its core functions of courts, police, and national defense. Given enough time, it would become both a totalitarian state and a failed state.

Long before that point is reached, the government would be failing to satisfy the needs of an increasing number of voters. Ironically, the more it tried to do, the more voters people it would fail to satisfy; as a government grows through interventionism, so does the number of dissatisfied voters. Those voters would give up on the party system to some degree. Some reject the system only slightly, becoming nominally independent but still retaining some loyalty to their old party. Others reject it completely and become non-voters. In between are the true independents, dissatisfied voters who reject and will vote to throw out either party. As their numbers grow, true independents increasingly determine the outcome of elections; and as they tend to vote against incumbent government, those incumbents will be totally repudiated at regular intervals.

While the interval is regular, it is not independent of human agency. It can and has changed. Currently it is four years (A-C), but before that it was eight (C-F). Since that change coincided with the first election of Donald Trump, it is fair to speculate that his first election is the main reason for the speed-up. Since his election, both parties have become increasingly negative. Negative campaigning has existed since the beginning of American democracy, but since Trump's election both parties have taken negativity to a whole new level.

In the past the negativity of political campaigns began and ended with political campaigns. members of both parties were able to coexist socially outside political life. Today, though, politics and its negativity, never ends. Partisans of both parties have come to see the other party as intrinsically evil, good only to be destroyed. The challenger party does little more than point to the failures of the incumbent regime. The incumbent party increasingly dismisses the challengers' criticisms as "playing politics" and does nothing to correct them. As a result, the all-important true independents – who can confirm the flaws for themselves, as well as their failure to be corrected – are increasingly unsatisfied, increasingly likely to defect to the challengers at the earliest opportunity. They have become motivated by anti-incumbency.

This election has confirmed that four-year interval. However, since Trump remains a player it does not tell us whether the interval stays at four years or reverts to eight following his retirement. Based on the data, there is no way to predict that, for now. All that can be predicted is that in four years' time both parties will once again march into battle as if marching to Armageddon; and in that election the Democrats will win. However, how long that Democratic president will stay in office cannot be answered at this time.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Ron Paul willing to work with Elon Musk in DOGE

Libertarian icon Ron Paul is interested in playing a role in Elon Musk's proposed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in a second Trump administration.

Elon Musk asks this ex-Congressman to join second Trump term to reduce… | Hindustan Times | Tuhin Das Mahapatra:

November 02, 2024 - "November 02, 2024 - "Elon Musk expressed interest in having Ron Paul in a potential Department of Government Efficiency if Trump wins the presidency.... 'Would be great to have Ron Paul as part of the Department of Government Efficiency!' he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

"Paul approved Musk’s potential role as a government efficiency commissioner, replying, 'I'd be happy to talk with you about it, Elon.'

"Paul, who previously sought the presidency as a Republican and a Libertarian, noted his willingness to advise Musk on economic policy, emphasizing his dedication to educating the public about government overreach.

"When asked if he would work with Musk to address government waste, Paul said, 'Well I would.... But I wouldn't want an official position, you know, because I've sort of steered away from getting too involved in the politics of it all right now.' He then highlighted, 'I always say young people that were in high school and college, when I was doing all the campaigning, [were] a receptive audience,' contrasting it with his lack of support from business organizations like the 'Chamber of Commerce.'

"Paul advised that Musk proceed with caution if tasked with reducing government spending. 'You know, a position is easy to have and to hold. But the truth is, you know, what if I did get in this position and all I had to do is sign a piece of paper and the Federal Reserve was eliminated, or you cut the budget by $2 trillion … the consequence would be is total chaos and probably civil war and all that,' he remarked.

"Paul stressed that the public should understand the rationale behind reducing government expenditures, especially as economic challenges grow. He sees an opportunity to guide future policies once 'this thing falls apart' arguing that certain political factions benefit from societal unrest. He said, 'The cultural Marxists do it on purpose: the more chaos, the better.' So he remains as a “reluctant optimist,' heartened by the responsiveness of 'a lot of people out there, a lot of young people that seem to be very receptive to what we've been talking about.'"

Ron Paul, Donald Trump, Elon Musk. Courtesy Spectator Australia.

Ron Paul responds to Elon Musk’s invitation to join Trump administration | Express Tribune:

November 02, 2024 - "Musk recently posted that he would welcome Paul’s involvement in the department, which he humorously referred to as the 'Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE),' alluding to the cryptocurrency Dogecoin.... Musk’s interest in a governmental role has become increasingly visible, with the CEO explicitly stating his willingness to serve in a Trump-led administration if the opportunity arises. Following Musk’s post, Trump hinted at appointing him to an advisory or official role if elected president.

"Paul’s legacy in politics includes founding the Foundation for Rational Economics and Education (FREE) in 1976 and serving as the first chairman of Citizens for a Sound Economy. Often cited as the 'intellectual godfather' of the Tea Party movement, Paul’s influence extends across fiscal conservatism and anti-interventionist policies. If appointed, the combination of Paul’s libertarian principles and Musk’s tech-driven approach could bring an unconventional dynamic to government operations under a Trump presidency."

Sunday, November 3, 2024

In search of the real Kamala Harris

After Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party nominee for president, investigative journalist John Stossel set out to answer the question: Who is the real Kamala Harris.

STOSSEL: The REAL Kamala Harris | Toronto Sun | John Stossel:

August 24, 2024 - "Who is Kamala Harris? What does she believe? It’s hard to know. She won’t take questions from reporters. Instead, she reads from a teleprompter and gives the same speech again and again. So, as she gets the nomination, my new video looks at who Harris really is.

"She’s eager to spend other people’s money.... Last election, Stossel TV compared the candidates’ proposed spending.... Trump proposed spending $267 billion more. Biden, $297 billion. The socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders wanted to spend an astonishing $3.976 trillion! But Harris was even worse! $4.162 trillion in new spending. Last week, in her first policy speech, she proposed $1.7 trillion in new spending. At least that’s not as bad as what she wanted during COVID: She thought the government should give every American $2,000 a month. That would have cost taxpayers $21 trillion!....

"A few years ago, she endorsed eliminating private health insurance — having government take it over completely. Now her campaign says she 'no longer supports (entirely government-run) health care.' Who is the real Kamala Harris?

"In 2019, she said she wanted to ban fracking. Now that Harris needs votes in Pennsylvania, where fracking provides jobs, her campaign claims she won’t ban fracking, and Republican claims that she would are 'false … an obvious attempt to distract.' But what’s false? She told CNN, 'I’m in favour of banning fracking.' She also wanted to force gun owners to sell their guns to the government. Now, a Harris spokesperson says, 'the vice president would no longer require this.'

"She used to brag about being a tough prosecutor, even taking pride in 'prosecuting parents for truancy.' But then, when progressives criticized harsh policing, she flip-flopped. During the George Floyd riots, as people looted and set fires, Harris tweeted, 'help post bail for those protesting.' Now the policing pendulum has swung back. Harris again brags about locking people up....

"Harris ... says radical things, like wanting 'equity' over equality and equal opportunity. 'There’s a big difference,' she says in an animated video. 'Equality suggests everyone should get the same amount. Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place'.... So, we need even more government redistribution?

"Harris is a big-government, flip-flopping opportunist. It’s upsetting that the main presidential contenders are a cackling, economically ignorant big spender and a crass, self-absorbed bully....

"The best news is that America’s founders wisely created checks on executive power. Foolish people often say the president 'runs the country.' Thankfully, that’s not true.... The president runs only one of three branches of government. Each is designed to be able to stop the other from imposing tyranny. The founders wanted limited government because they’d seen the damage oppressive rulers did. If our next president must be Trump or Harris, I’m sure glad there are limits on their power."

Kamala Harris’s Track Record: Big Spending, Wokeness, Equity and Flip Flops | John Stossel | August 21, 2024:

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