Pages

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Libertarian polls at 38% in Arkansas Senate race

Tom Cotton Won't Debate His Libertarian Challenger. The Event Will Happen Anyway | Reason - Eric Boehm: 

October 12, 2020 - "Sen. Tom Cotton (R–Ark.) is ducking a chance to debate his Libertarian challenger, even as a new poll shows the race tightening in the final weeks of what could be a rough election season for Republicans. The debate, scheduled to be broadcast by Arkansas' PBS station on Wednesday night, will take place even without Cotton's participation. That means it will basically be an hour-long opportunity for Ricky Dale Harrington, Jr., to speak directly to the voters who will decide next month whether Cotton deserves another six years in the Senate.

"Cotton, who has emerged in recent years as one of the loudest voices in the GOP's ascendant authoritarian nationalist wing, appeared to be heading for an easy reelection bid when the only Democrat to enter the race dropped out late last year. Enter Harrington, a 34-year-old prison chaplain running a campaign that gives voters about as stark a choice as they are likely to find in any two-way contest this year. Where Cotton has claimed that America has an 'under-incarceration problem' and called for deploying more heavy-handed police tactics against protesters, Harrington wants to reduce mandatory minimums and demilitarize the police. That contrast would provide fertile ground for serious debate between the two men — if Cotton would agree to show up.

"Even before this week's debate, Harrington has made a splash. According to a poll released last week by American Research Group (a polling firm that FiveThirtyEight grades well), Cotton leads 49 percent to 38 percent. That's a comfortable enough lead — and every professional prognosticator has the race listed as a 'safe' Republican win, even as the tide has turned against the GOP in the presidential race and some key Senate battlegrounds. Still, Cotton is polling at less than 50 percent in a two-way race, and 13 percent of voters say they remain undecided....

"This week's non-debate is an opportunity for Harrington to appeal to those undecided voters. Failing to show up means Cotton stands to gain nothing.

"When Cotton rejected the invitation to the debate, his campaign released a statement saying he was 'spending time on the campaign trail when the Senate is in recess, and looks forward to making his case to Arkansans across our state before this November's election.' What Cotton won't do, apparently, is go head-to-head with a challenger that nearly four out of 10 Arkansans say they support."

Read more: https://reason.com/2020/10/12/tom-cotton-wont-debate-his-libertarian-challenger-the-event-will-happen-anyway/ 

Why it matters
by George J. Dance

I would love to see Ricky Harrington win, but I think that is very doubtful by the poll numbers. Even if the undecideds broke 11:2 for him, Tom Cotton wiould still win. On the other hand, for Herrington to get over 30% should be big news. Let's hope Libertarians get as much news out of it as possible. 

Libertarians may not have won that many elections in the USA, but they have been the most successful interest group fighting for free and fair elections in that country, and it is time to shine a light on that success. Harrington's candidacy shows two ways they do that.  

First, Libertarians counter the worrying trend in America of two-party elections turning into one-party coronations. As the country grows more polarized and campaigns get more expensive, both Democratic and Republican parties are finding it more and more necessary to stop contesting seats they are sure they cannot win. In those cases, all semblance of the voters having any say in who gets elected goes out the window. However, Libertarians — who run low-cost campaigns, not to win (at this time) but to recruit (so we can win later) — can provide one thing representative democracy needs in order to function, an opposing choice for voters dissatisfied with a single option.  

Second, if Harrington gets at least 25%, that will be more than 10 times the 2% threshold the state requires for major party status (including automatic ballot access). In all fairness, Harrington's vote should qualify the party.  However, the state counts only the governor's race, not other statewide races, which is unfair; and if the party loses its status this time, that unfairness will be manifest to all (or at least to all besides Cotton supporters).  

The Libertarians are often subject to unfair and arbitrary laws like this; and their success in fighting them, by both lobbying state legislatures and initiating court challenges, has given them a solid record of achievement over the past five decades. This year's election may give them a golden opportunity of adding to that record. 

No comments:

Post a Comment