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Wednesday, November 1, 2017

The Economist: Atlas is about to shrug in Britain

In Britain, Atlas is about to shrug - Bagehot - Adrian Woolridge, The Economist:

August 24, 2017 - "In Atlas Shrugged, published 60 years ago this October, Ayn Rand asked what would happen if society’s most talented businesspeople got so fed up with being taxed, regulated and otherwise messed about by government that they went on strike. Innovation would cease. The economy would stagnate. And government, starved of easy pickings, would become more bullying.

"The world’s fifth-largest economy is in the early stages of its own experiment with driving Atlas crazy. Since the Thatcher revolution of the 1980's Britain has been one of the most open and business-friendly large economies.... But the settlement is under assault from two directions. The Conservative Party is negotiating Britain’s departure from the European Union, disrupting long-established flows of trade, talent and capital. Meanwhile, the main opposition party is led by a hard-leftist who wants to consign Thatcherism to the dustbin of history.

"Brexit is already beginning to damage Britain’s most globalised industry, finance. Most big investment banks have shifted some people and operations to the continent as a hedge.... Oliver Wyman, a consultancy, predicts that up to 75,000 finance jobs, or 7% of the total, will leave if Britain loses easy access to the single market. EY, another consultancy, puts the figure at 83,000....

"Jeremy Bernard Corbyn ... stands on the verge of power.... There is little chance that Mr Corbyn would moderate his hard-leftism in government. He has been banging the same drums for 30 years, and is surrounded by fellow-travellers such as John McDonnell, his shadow chancellor, and Seumas Milne, his chief strategist, whose biggest disagreement is over whether Stalin or Trotsky is the greater inspiration. He is supported by snarling activists in the Momentum campaigning group and the Unite trade union.... He believes that change comes through conflict rather than consensus, so will expect the markets and media to tell him he is ruining the country: that’s what the reactionary establishment does.

"The combined result of Brexit and Corbyn could be the dystopia that Rand warned about: a stagnant society driven by resentment of the successful. The flight of talent will not only have a knock-on effect on the wider economy.... It will also reduce the state’s revenues, since the top 1% of earners pay almost 30% of income tax and the top 10% pay nearly 60%. Mr Corbyn seems to think that all he need do is to ask 'the rich' to pay 'a little bit more' and everything will be fine. But why would successful people put up with higher taxes, particularly if they follow on the heels of Brexit-related uncertainty and disruption? As Luke Johnson, a serial entrepreneur, points out, the world is full of places where Britain’s Atlases would be welcome, from neighbouring countries like France, which is courting London’s bankers and tech workers, to emerging markets such as Dubai and Singapore. When Atlas shrugs, the whole of Albion suffers."

Read more: https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21727080-combination-brexit-and-jeremy-corbyn-could-lead-dystopia-ayn-rand-predicted
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