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Monday, June 1, 2020

Norway's lockdown was unnecessary and harmful, PM and experts conclude

Norwegian Prime Minister Admits Lockdown Was Mistake, Says Sorry | Lockdown Sceptics - Toby Young:
May 31, 2020  - "Last Wednesday night, Norway’s prime minister Erna Solberg went on television to make a confession: she had panicked at the start of the pandemic. Most of the tough measures imposed in Norway’s lockdown were steps too far, she admitted. 'Was it necessary to close schools?' she asked. 'Perhaps not'....

"An expert committee charged with carrying out a cost-benefit analysis into the lockdown measures in April estimated they had cost Norway 27 billion kroner [$2.8 billion US - gd] every month. The committee concluded last Friday that the country should avoid lockdown if there is a second wave of infections.....

"Steinar Holden, an Oslo University Economics Professor, told the Sunday Telegraph. 'We should start with measures at an individual level – which is what we have now – and if there’s a second wave, we should have measures in the local area where this occurs, and avoid measures at a national level if that is possible'....

"Margrethe Greve-Isdahl, the doctor who is NIPH’s expert on infections in schools, tells the Telegraph that if schools hadn’t been closed they could have played a role in informing people in immigrant communities – which were hit disproportionately hard by the epidemic – of hygiene and social distancing rules."
Read more: https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/05/31/

Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid | The Spectator blog - Fraser Nelson, Coffee House:
May 27, 2020 - "Norway is assembling a picture of what happened before lockdown and its latest discovery is pretty significant. It is using observed data – hospital figures, infection numbers and so on – to construct a picture of what was happening in March. At the time, no one really knew. It was feared that virus was rampant with each person infecting two or three others – and only lockdown could get this exponential growth rate (the so-called R number) down to a safe level of 1. This was the hypothesis advanced in various graphs by Imperial College London for Britain, Norway and several European countries.

"But the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. 'It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1.... We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down'....

"This raises an awkward question: was lockdown necessary? What did it achieve that could not have been achieved by voluntary social distancing? Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery.

"'Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.' This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.... And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, 'the academic foundation was not good enough' for lockdown this time."
Read more: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid

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