A little good news

by George J. Dance

As Anne Murray sang in her 1983 country hit, "We sure could use a little good news today." When I listened to that song the other night, for the first time in years, I was struck by the parallels with contemporary America. The line about the "local paper rolled up in a rubber band" dates it, but other lines could have been written today. The line "Nobody OD'd, nobody burned a single building down" almost gives me goosebumps. 

1983 was very much like 2020. Back then, a Republican president (Ronald Reagan) was running for a second term, and the Democratic-supporting media was doing its best to convince Americans that he had led the country into disaster. So Americans were hearing nothing but bad news, drummed at them on a daily basis. Hence the need for some good news then; and hence the same need today. 

The good news is there, even in the most alarming story. Take this week's headline news that the world has passed another "grim milestone," with 25 million cases of COVID-19. Where's the good news in that? There is some, but you will not find it any of the stories about that "milestone". To find it, you need to go to a statistics page like worldometer's COVID-19 website, where you will learn that just 7 million people have the coronavirus.

True, by the official statistics there have been 27,145,735 cases since the start of the pandemic. However, 20,148,479 of those cases are now closed; only 6,997,256 actually have the disease today. Of the closed cases, 884,948 have died – a large number – while 19,263,531 (or 96%) have recovered – a much larger number. 

Of the 27 million people who have had COVID-19, almost 20 million have made a full recovery. That is big news, well worth celebrating. Sure, they may have long-term effects, or their immunity may wear off; we do not know, simply because we do not know the future. All we know for certain, for now, is that they have had the disease, they got better, and for some time they will not get it again. Their own bodies are protecting them.

Their bodies are also protecting others. Take the example of 20-year-old Johnny, who likes to go to the bar or the pub with his buds, and also likes to spend time with his grandfather. If he does both, there is a chance of him getting infected and passing the disease to his grandfather, who may get ill or even die. So the government decides for Johnny and his friends that they should not go to bars or pubs, and closes all of those. Yet that does nothing to solve the problem, since Johnny can still get infected somewhere else. Johnny's visits to the bar or pub are not what is causing the problem.  The problem lies with Johnny's visits to his grandfather. He should not spend time with his grandfather, without a negative test for the disease; if he tests positive, he should not see his grandfather at all.  

However, if Johnny does get the disease, he will almost surely recover, and when he does, he will have immunity, in which case everything changes. In that case  he should see his grandfather, as much as they can both stand: he is the safest person possible for his grandfather to spend time with. Suppose he does the previously unthinkable, and moves in with his grandfather. By handling all contacts with those who come to the door, his immunity is protecting his grandfather not only from infection by him, but  from infection by all of them. 

Seen in this light, there is nothing "grim" about an increasing number of cases. The world has a million new cases of COVID-19 every four days. Some of those million people are in danger, and all of them pose a danger to the rest of us, because they also can now transmit the disease. But most of them are in no danger, and they can endanger us for only a week, because after five days they are no longer contagious. Once they have recovered from COVID-19, and are back in the community with immunity, they are not only not transmitting the disease, but blocking its transmission. They are not endangering others, but protecting others, including the most vulnerable who need that protection. 

COVID-19 can be beaten. Most people do beat it. And every person who gets it and beats it is a win; they are now safe from it, and they are helping to keep others safe. That is good news indeed.