Sunday, November 19, 2017

Trump's war on NAFTA threatens 3 economies

Imitating Obama? | Liberty Unbound - Gary Jason:

October 23, 2017 - "I confess that I am no fan of Trump. Actually, that dramatically understates it. I regard him as a dangerous populist ignoramus whose crudity of character makes him unfit for office.... My only hope was that Trump, once in office, would at least pretend to be presidential....

"But unfortunately he has pursued his nativist and protectionist agendas. On the nativist agenda, he killed DACA — setting up the deportation of upwards of a million young people brought here involuntarily, and raised with scant knowledge of the countries of their births. Not only did he refuse to increase the H-1B visa and other programs that legally allow in college-trained STEM and medical professionals, but he has actually proposed cutting all legal immigration by half....

"On Trump’s protectionist agenda, after killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, Trump has set his sights on killing NAFTA.... Obama — Trump’s match in protectionism — started trade wars with both Mexico and Canada shortly after assuming office [but] slowly but surely came to understand why more than 90% of economists favor free trade. Obama eventually approved of the three free-trade agreements left to him by George Bush, and late in his second term negotiated the TPP.... But Trump is even more of a populist fool....

"The Wall Street Journal reports just how close to a collapse of the NAFTA talks we are.... [S]hould the talks collapse ... Colorado-based ImpactECON, has put the net job losses at 125,000 for Canada, 256,000 for the US, and a whopping 961,000 for Mexico over the next three to five years.

"If NAFTA does get repealed, tariffs would undoubtedly result.... Both Canada and Mexico will be furious at seeing the US dump the deal and will likely raise tariffs enormously.... The American Automobile Policy Council estimates that the rise of the price of domestic auto parts from the tariffs will cost 50,000 US jobs....

"The ImpactECON study says the small gains in US employment in production of machinery and chemical industries will be swamped by losses in the agricultural, auto, and apparel industries.... Under NAFTA, our agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada have risen fourfold, hitting $38 billion last year. If NAFTA is junked, the Mexicans could revert to their pre-NAFTA tariff levels of 75% on US chicken and corn syrup, 45% on turkey, potatoes, and dairy products, and 15% on wheat....

"Of course, the joke in all this is that the US was losing manufacturing jobs long before NAFTA.... The real 'culprit' is not international trade; it is automation and creative destruction.... The failure of many American workers to adjust to the shift from low-knowledge to high-tech factories results primarily from the pathetically poor average education they receive.... All of this could be cured if we did what supposedly socialist Sweden did over a quarter century ago: immediately adopt a universal voucher program — that is, require all public schools in America to adopt perfectly pro-rata voucher systems within one year....

"Rising protectionism and fear of trade don’t just run the risk of depression and trade wars — which in turn run the risk of military war. They also distract us from the real cause of long-term blue-collar unemployment: a horribly broken educational system."

Read more: http://www.libertyunbound.com/node/1771
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