Polling shows Canadians sharply divided

Polling on the Canadian general election shows a nation sharply divided by region, by sex, and by age. 

Liberals lead by 5 points over Conservatives in a ‘nation divided between East and West’: Nanos | CTV | Phil Hahn:

April 25, 2025 - "A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research conducted on April 22-24 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives, who are at 38 per cent nationally. The New Democratic Party is at eight per cent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).

"It’s a 'nation divided between East and West,' said Nik Nanos.... 

• In Ontario, the Liberals went from a double-digit advantage earlier in the week to seven points and they’re at 47 per cent versus the Conservatives at 40. The NDP is at eight. 
• The Liberals have widened their lead in Quebec and are at 41 compared with the Conservatives at 21. The Bloc Quebecois is in second place at 26 per cent.
• In the Prairies, the Conservatives remain far ahead with 57 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 30 for the Liberals. The NDP is at nine. In B.C., the Liberals are at 39 per cent versus 41 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP is at 13.
• The Liberal lead in the Atlantic region remains strong at 62 per cent versus 34 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP remains far behind in the region at three per cent....

"A gender breakdown shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. 

• Forty-eight per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 32 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eight per cent of women back the NDP. 
• Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent, compared with 45 for the Conservatives. Nine per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.

"The Conservative advantage among voters under 35 continues with 44 per cent of those surveyed backing them versus 31 for the Liberals. Thirteen per cent chose the NDP. Meanwhile, it’s a dead heat among those aged 35 to 54, with Conservatives at 41 per cent versus 42 for the Liberals. Seven per cent would vote NDP.... Fifty-one per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 32 for the Conservatives. Seven per cent in that age category chose the NDP."

Read more: https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/liberals-lead-by-5-points-over-conservatives-in-a-nation-divided-between-east-and-west-nanos/

The boomer/millennial divide defining the Canadian election | National Post | Tristin Hopper, First Reading:

March 27, 2025 - "A Leger poll released Tuesday found that a recent surge in support for Liberal Leader Mark Carney is being driven largely by seniors — and that if the election was decided solely by younger voters it would be an easy Conservative victory. Poll respondents over the age of 55 were the single strongest cohort for the Liberals, polling higher than any other demographic except for Atlantic Canadians. Among seniors, 52 per cent indicated their intention to vote Liberal, against just 34 per cent leaning Conservative.

"In the younger age cohorts, the Conservatives were the clear favourite. Among voters aged 18 to 34, it was 39 per cent Conservative to 37 per cent Liberal. Among those aged 35 to 54 set, it was 42 per cent Conservative to 38 per cent Liberal.

"[T]he 2025 election is the first time on record that young Canadians are leaning conservative at a higher rate than their elders.... It’s a trend that’s been showing up in polls ever since 2022, when Pierre Poilievre first won the leadership of the Conservative Party.... By late 2024, polls consistently showed that under-34 voters made up the strongest base of support for the Tories. It’s a trend that has placed Canada wildly out of step with its usual peer countries, all of whom are still adhering to the traditional metric of progressive young people and conservative old people."

Read more: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/boomer-millennial-divide-defining-the-canadian-election