by George Dance
"May you live in interesting times," goes the ancient Chinese curse. Canadian politics has certainly got a lot more interesting this month.
Ten days ago I made a prediction that Trudeau would exploit the threat of Trump tariffs to stay on as Liberal leader and prime minister. In my opinion Trudeau is far too much the narcissist to voluntarily give up power. As well, I believed leadership candidate Mark Carney's claims that he was an "outsider" to the federal government, and thought the Liberal insiders would close ranks to stop him.
However ,while it is still way too early to say, and I am sticking with it, that part of my prediction appears to be wrong. How did I go wrong? For one thing, I thought that he and Trudeau would be rivals, if not enemies. It turns out, though, that Carney has been on Team Trudeau for some time, serving as Justin's Special Adviser and Chair of the Liberal Task Force on Economic Growth since last September. I still doubt that Trudeau would resign voluntarily, but it is possible that he was forced out, due to either his abysmal polling numbers or pressure from Carney's colleagues in the United Nations (where Carney is Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance) or the World Economic Forum (where Carney is an Agenda Contributor and a Foundation Board member). It looks like Carney's path to the Prime Minister's office will be much easier than I had thought.
The rest of the prediction appears sound, though. No matter their leader, the Liberals still seem on track to run the next election
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