Saturday, November 12, 2016

Exit polls disprove idea Johnson helped Trump

Shades of Ralph Nader: Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein tip the 2016 U.S. election? - Politics - CBC News - Eric Grenier:

November 12, 2016 - "In 2000, George W. Bush won the election against Al Gore, despite losing the popular vote by half a percentage point. That is because he won the Electoral College, thanks in part to wins in Florida and New Hampshire. In both of those states, the total number of votes cast for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader was greater than the margin between Bush and Gore....

"Ever since, Nader has denied that he cost the Democrats the election. [Gary] Johnson and [Jill] Stein, this year's Libertarian and Green candidates, might have to do the same for the rest of their lives.

"In five states, the margin of victory between Trump and Clinton was smaller than the number of votes cast for Johnson and Stein:
  1. Michigan: Clinton lost by about 11,800 votes. She would have won with just 23 per cent of Stein's votes or seven per cent of Johnson's.
  2. Wisconsin: Clinton lost by about 27,300 votes, representing 88 per cent of Stein's support or 26 per cent of Johnson's.
  3. Pennsylvania: A combination of Stein's votes and at least 14 per cent of Johnson's would have overcome Trump's 68,200 margin of victory, or 48 per cent of Johnson's vote alone.
  4. Arizona: All of Stein's votes and at least 81 per cent of Johnson's vote would have bridged the 84,500-vote gap between Trump and Clinton.
  5. Florida: Clinton lost the state that cost Gore the presidency by about 119,800 votes. All of Stein's votes plus 27 per cent of Johnson's would have given her the state, or 58 per cent of Johnson's votes alone.
"Clinton came up short by 38 Electoral College votes on Tuesday. Combined, these states were worth 96 electoral votes....

"But on Tuesday, exit polls suggest that about 25 per cent of Johnson and Stein's voters would have cast a ballot for Clinton if forced to choose between her and Trump, while 15 per cent would have voted for the Republican. The remainder would have stayed home.

"Based on these numbers, the math does not back up any argument that Johnson and Stein are this year's Ralph Nader.

"If we give 25 per cent of Johnson and Stein's voters to Clinton, 15 per cent to Trump and assume the rest do not vote, only Michigan flips over to Clinton. She wins it by about 11,000 votes. But she would have still lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Florida — the last by about 93,000 votes.....

"What we do know for certain, however, is that Clinton ... received about six million votes fewer than Barack Obama did four years ago. Just two per cent of those votes, cast in the right states, would have won her the election.

"So ... if the Democrats want to do any finger-pointing they should probably do it in front of a mirror.''

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