Amash primary challenger up by 16 in early poll

Report: Michigan poll shows Justin Amash trailing primary challenger by 16 - Allahpundit, Hot Air:

June 12, 2019 - "Nothing would better encapsulate the GOP’s political turn over this past decade than watching the most hardcore small-government Republican in Congress get obliterated in a primary because he’s worried that the president committed a crime....

Independent PPC polling finds @justinamash down 49%-33% to @RepJimLower in MI-3 GOP primary.
— MIRSnews.com (@MIRSnews) June 11, 2019

"I can’t find the crosstabs and the MIRS website is paywalled but Daily Kos says the sample was of 335 likely GOP primary voters, which is smallish. Notably, the poll didn’t include a third candidate who’s running. That’s Amash’s best hope for a victory — draw more pro-Trump, anti-Amash candidates into the race, hope that the majority of Republican voters splinter among them, and win the nomination with a plurality.

"Although, given the state of the party, it’s possible that anti-Amash GOPers would cross over and vote Democratic in the general election just to spite him. Of course, it’s possible that pro-Amash GOPers will do the same thing in annoyance if someone unseats him in the primary. Remember, the last time Trump targeted a small-government Republican critic for political destruction, that seat ended up in Democratic hands — In South Carolina. Before that he had plenty of unhappy things to say about anti-Trumper Jeff Flake, who chose not to run again rather than be crushed in his own primary. That seat also ended up going Democratic in what’s normally a red state.

"Trump might be willing to see Amash’s seat turn blue as the price of expelling him, though. Per Politico, he sounds pretty excited about revenge here.

Trump and his top advisers have discussed the prospect of backing a primary challenge to the Michigan lawmaker — a highly unusual move for a president against a member of his own party.... Trump has raised the primary challenge idea with Vice President Mike Pence and North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows, a close Trump ally who co-founded the conservative House Freedom Caucus with Amash. Trump has also addressed the subject with Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, a former Michigan GOP leader who remains influential in the state....

"I don’t think this is strategic on Trump’s part, I think this is just who he is. If you cross him and it’s within his power to ruin you, even if it means the other party is likely to benefit from it, he’ll do it....

"Amash is a worrisome third-party challenger for Trump potentially because he’s an unusually bold spokesman for the two camps that typically make up the base of support for Libertarian Party candidates. One is libertarians themselves; to them, Amash’s ideological credentials are impeccable. The other is righties of various stripes who crave a Republican who’ll confront Trump unapologetically. Amash distinguished himself spectacularly in that regard with his impeachment stance. Both libertarians and anti-Trump GOPers should be more eager to vote for him for their own reasons in 2020, I suspect, than they were to back Gary Johnson and Bill Weld in 2016. Amash would still end up in single digits but each extra percentage point matters. Especially in Michigan."

Read more: https://hotair.com/archives/2019/06/12/report-michigan-poll-shows-justin-amash-trailing-primary-challenger-16/
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How Liberty Republicans can thrive in Trump era

Don’t Write Off the Libertarian Republicans | The American Conservative - Kevin Boyd:

June 19, 2018 - "Last Tuesday’s elections were a mixed bag for Tea Party legislators, or what we might call libertarian Republicans. The bad news was Corey Stewart’s defeat of Nick Freitas in the Virginia Senate primary and Katie Arrington’s defeat of Congressman Mark Sanford in South Carolina. However, the GOP’s libertarian wing picked up wins by Eric Brakey, who prevailed for the Senate nomination in Maine, and Lee Bright, who qualified for a U.S. House runoff in South Carolina.

"Still, questions have been raised about whether or not libertarians are even welcome in a Republican Party controlled by President Donald Trump.... The Trump administration has championed policies that libertarians generally despise, such as increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, spending hikes, and preserving the current entitlements system....

"The GOP under Trump is certainly not a party that values limited government. Then again, the GOP has rarely ever seemed to value limited government, at least when it’s in power. But is all lost for libertarians? A closer look at the both the Freitas and Sanford losses reveals the answer is not a simple one.

"In Virginia, Stewart picked up 44.9 percent of the vote to Freitas’s 43.1 percent, or a little more than a 5,000-vote difference. Stewart ... had the highest name ID in the race. Freitas, on the other hand, ... was a relatively unknown state house member before the campaign, and he spent only $355,749 compared to Stewart’s $680,505 ... this doesn’t seem like a catastrophic loss for libertarians. Indeed, Freitas nearly pulled it off despite his lower name recognition....

"As for South Carolina, ... Arrington made her support for President Trump a major focus of her campaign and contrasted it to Sanford’s criticisms of Trump. But a deeper look at the race tells a different story. The fact is that Arrington worked hard on the campaign trail while Sanford took his reelection for granted. The result was predictable, regardless of any Trump factor....

"Still, it’s worth asking what lessons libertarians can learn to survive and thrive in the Trump era. The biggest one comes from Daniel McCarthy, who notes that libertarianism was a success in the GOP when it was anti-establishment.... Rand Paul, Congressman Thomas Massie, Congressman Justin Amash ... are flourishing because they’ve maintained their anti-establishment credentials ... despite the fact that they have opposed and even criticized Trump at times.

"Amash, who was targeted by Trump allies for a primary challenge, wound up running unopposed. Although he faces a tough general election battle, he is still favored to be reelected. Massie is all but certain to return to Congress.

"Contrast their fates with another libertarian leaner and Trump critic, Senator Jeff Flake. Flake was forced to retire after it became clear he would be defeated in the primary.... Flake was a strong proponent of free trade and railed against pork barrel spending in the House of Representatives. He was not afraid to challenge his own party on those issues. But since being elected to the Senate in 2012, Flake had also become a consistent ally of the Republican establishment....

"Libertarians can survive in the Trump era. After all, Trump’s destruction of the old GOP has given them space to operate. But libertarian Republicans must not forget their anti-establishment roots and they cannot take their election races for granted."

Read more: http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/dont-write-off-the-libertarian-republicans/
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Paul and McCain oppose Trump's CIA pick

Rand’s rep as Senate rebel on the line - POLITICO - Burgess Everett:

May 14, 2018 - "Rand Paul is once again the talk of the Senate.... [W]ith the Senate preparing for a nail-biter on Trump’s CIA nominee Gina Haspel, the chamber is abuzz over the latest will-he-or-won’t-he Rand guessing game. The libertarian-leaning Kentucky senator says he’s a hard 'no,' but Democrats and Republicans believe he may yet fold under pressure from Trump, as he did with Mike Pompeo for secretary of state.

""Paul had a simple answer when asked if he again can be persuaded by the president to support one of his crucial nominees: 'No.'

"'Someone who has been an active participant and enthusiast for torture is not someone who should represent America,' Paul said in an interview as he left the Senate for the week on Thursday.... In a POLITICO op-ed Friday, he criticized the CIA nominee for selectively releasing information about her record of harsh interrogation techniques on detainees and said 'that fact alone should be enough to cause the Senate [to] reject her nomination'....

"For Paul, it’s the latest test of his resolve in the face of enormous pressure from his party and the president to toe the party line....

"In February, Paul single-handedly caused a brief government shutdown by refusing to relent in his opposition to a budget deal, but then backed off before forcing a second one in March. In the case of Pompeo, he relented after being personally lobbied by the president....

"Paul does not serve on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which will hold the first vote on Haspel’s nomination. Pompeo was first taken up by the Foreign Relations Committee, which Paul does sit on, and his opposition threatened an embarrassing 'unfavorable' vote by the panel.

"For now, Haspel is short of votes for confirmation. {Democratic Senators Joe] Manchin, an Intelligence Committee member, and [Joe] Donnelly support her. But other moderate Democrats ... are not yet behind her, and neither are Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah).

"Though he‘s unlikely to be present for the vote, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) came out against Haspel last week over what he called her evasive responses to questions about the morality of torture, which he called 'disqualifying.' That marks one of the few times the hawkish McCain and libertarian-leaning Paul have agreed — McCain once called Paul 'wacko,' and Paul last year said McCain was 'unhinged' — on foreign policy."

Read more: http://gdspoliticalanimal.blogspot.com/2018/05/paul-and-mccain-oppose-trumps-cia-pick.html
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Senate kills Rand Paul's war powers repeal

Senate scuttles Rand Paul's war powers repeal - POLITICO - Connor O'Brien:

September 13, 2017 - "The Senate Wednesday scuttled a proposal by Sen. Rand Paul to repeal the war authorizations that underpin the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as military action in a slew of other countries.

"The vote was 61 to 36 to table — or kill — Paul's amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act. The Kentucky Republican's proposal would have repealed both the 2001 and 2002 authorizations for the use of military force [AUMF's] six months after the bill becomes law, giving lawmakers a tight window to pass a new framework for U.S. military operations overseas....

"In a floor speech Tuesday, Paul torched his fellow lawmakers for refusing to vote to authorize the myriad military actions the U.S. has engaged in since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on Sept. 11, 2001. 'I don't think that anyone with an ounce of intellectual honesty believes that these authorizations from 16 years ago and 14 years ago ... authorized war in seven different countries,' Paul said.

"Wednesday's vote came after Paul blocked Senate leaders' efforts to speed consideration of the must-pass defense policy bill for two days. Paul objected to procedural efforts to begin debate sooner and threatened to hold up all other senators' amendments if he wasn't granted a vote on his proposal.

"Paul was joined by senators from both parties who supported sunsetting the 2001 and 2002 AUMFs in order to force Congress to debate and pass a new authorization that covers the current military campaign against ISIS as well as other contingencies.

"Virginia Democrat Tim Kaine, who has pushed for a new AUMF with Arizona Republican Jeff Flake, said it was 'way past time' for a vote.... 'Of all the powers Congress has, the one that we should most jealously guard is the power to declare war,' he said....

"In a classified briefing with senators in August, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the 2001 AUMF provides legal authority for current military operations in the Middle East, though Mattis has said Congress should enact a new resolution."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/13/war-powers-aumf-rand-paul-senate-242662
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Sen. Jeff Flake's Conscience of a Conservative

Jeff Flake's Conscience Is Good for Libertarians — and the Country - Hit & Run : Reason.com - Nick Gillespie:

August 1, 2017 - "'We've been compromised...by forces...of populism and protectionism, isolationism, xenophobia,' says Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, about his own Republican Party.

"In a new book that borrows a title from Barry Goldwater, an NPR interview, and a no-holds-barred column in Politico, Flake is making the case that the GOP and President Trump are dishonest and disinterested in limiting the size, scope, and spending of government.

"He has impeccable credentials as a libertarian-leaning politician who once ran the free-market Goldwater Institute in Phoenix. Flake is a dedicated free-trader and defender of immigration.... Since arriving in Congress in 2001, he has passionately attacked the Cuba embargo as misguided, immoral, and ineffective: 'We preach the gospel of contact and commerce and trade and travel, yet with Cuba we turn around and say, "No, it's not going to work there." It just seemed to be a glaring inconsistency in our foreign policy.' An 'unapologetic member of the Gang of Eight' that sound comprehensive immigration reform, he is one of the few remaining Republicans in high office to champion higher levels of legal immigration both as a humanitarian gesture and as a practical boon to the country....

"He says that conservatives need 'to be honest with people' about the causes of economic dislocation. While Donald Trump and his fellow populists wail about Mexico and China, Flake stays grounded in reality. 'We manufacture twice as much as we did in the 1980s with one-third fewer workers and those productivity gains will continue. Globalization has happened and the question is: Do we harness it for our benefit or are we left behind by it?'

"In his Politico piece, Flake ranges close to calling for Trump's impeachment, or at least official censure, writing that 'unnerving silence in the face of an erratic executive branch is an abdication, and those in positions of leadership bear particular responsibility'.... No wonder there have been whispers about Trump working to primary Flake, who is up for re-election in 2018.

"You might not agree with Jeff Flake on everything, but it's good to see a principled free-market, open-borders Republican going public with his discontent, especially because he's got a strong record of calling out massive expansions of the government going back to his first days in Congress. We need more people like him in Washington, not just the handful we already know (Rand Paul, Mike Lee, Justin Amash, Thomas Massie...)."

Read more: http://reason.com/blog/2017/08/01/jeff-flakes-conscience-is-good-for-liber
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