Rosenberg Research's recently-released report, "Canadian Economy on Life Support," flags Canada's weak GDP growth and places the country on a recession watch.
February 5, 2026 - "Canada’s economy is 'on life support' even after 275 basis points of rate cuts, with weak growth, soft housing and a sliding currency sharpening questions about the Bank of Canada’s policy path, according to Rosenberg Research via BNN Bloomberg. The report, Canadian Economy on Life Support, says per capita GDP is still falling and the economy is 'growing at only one percent annually' despite the policy rate dropping from a high of five percent in 2024.
"The report projects the economy will shrink in the fourth quarter, with output falling at an annualised rate of 0.5 percent quarter-over-quarter, compared with the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 0.0 percent. Because the economy has already contracted in two of the last three quarters, the report says Canada is on 'recession watch' for 2026.
"David Rosenberg, chief economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, told BNN Bloomberg that 'this is what 275 basis points of Bank Canada rate cuts delivers: the grand total of one percent growth economy'....
"Rosenberg argued the central bank will 'be compelled to cut rates further from its already egregiously low interest rate of 2.25 percent'.... He said the Canadian dollar is likely to face additional downward pressure and ... argued that 'as weak as the Canadian dollar has been up until recently, it’s probably not weak enough.'"
President Trump has recently endorsed a policy that is arguably as socialist as anything proposed by New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani or Sen. Bernie Sanders — partial government ownership of private corporations.
Sep 8, 2025 - "President Trump has recently endorsed a policy that is arguably as socialist as anything proposed by New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani or Sen. Bernie Sanders — partial government ownership of private corporations.
"Earlier this year, as a condition of approving Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel, President Trump demanded Nippon give the US government a 'golden share' in US Steel. This golden share allows the US government to overrule Nippon’s management if the government determines Nippon is acting against US 'national security,' which means the government can overrule many decisions made by Nippon‘s management.
"Unfortunately, Nippon was not a 'one-and-done' excursion into corporatism. President Trump recently struck a deal with computer chip manufacturer Intel to give the company 8.9 billion dollars in government subsidies in exchange for ten percent of Intel’s stock. This deal makes the US government Intel’s largest stockholder!
"The Trump administration has promised that it will not use its position to undermine Intel’s board. However, the administration is reserving the right to counter Intel’s board if the administration determines the board is taking an action that would adversely impact the relationship of the company or its subsidiaries with the US government. So, the Trump administration is yet again giving itself power to manage a nominally private company.
"Enabling the government to control a private company (even if the government does not actually exercise its power) means the company’s management will base its decisions on what will please those currently in power, rather than on the desires of consumers.
"Government investment in corporations will cause politicians to make decisions based on what will profit the companies the government has 'invested' in while those companies’ competitors will seek to attract government investment in order to win special privileges for themselves.
"A corporation partially owned by government will be considered 'too big to fail' since its failure would cause the government to lose the money 'invested' in the businesses. So, the argument will be that a bailout will save the taxpayers money.
"According to a 2024 analysis by the World Bank — an organization not known as a supporter of free-market economics, companies of which government owns ten percent or more are six percent less profitable and have workforces that are 32 percent less productive.
"Some members of the Trump administration have suggested that the federal government take a partial ownership interest in defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has pointed out that big defense contractor Lockheed Martin, for example, is “basically an arm of the US government” since almost all its revenue comes from the US government. Secretary Lutnick has a point, but the closeness between the Pentagon and big corporations is an argument for restoring a noninterventionist foreign policy. Giving the government an ownership interest in defense contractors would allow the war party to argue that militarism is good for the taxpayer because it boosts the value of the government’s “investments”!
"Government 'investment' in private businesses will only worsen the twin plagues of corporatism and cronyism that afflict our political and economic systems. Instead of further entangling government and business, those seeking to make America great again should work to end the welfare-warfare-regulatory state and the fiat money system that makes it possible. The only path to prosperity is through a true free market, limited government, and a foreign policy of peace and free trade."
February 23, 2025 - "As a country, we simply aren’t ready for what is coming from Washington. I’m not talking about the tariffs.... I’m talking about Trump’s changes to the American economy.
"On Saturday, Trump was speaking to his most enthusiastic supporters at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Maryland.... Once again, he made them a promise that should make every American excited.... 'To further, turbo charge our economy, we’ve launched the most aggressive deregulation program in any nation’s history, and we’re also going to be seeking the largest tax cuts in American history,' Trump said. 'We brought them down, as you know, from close to 40% down to 21% now we’re bringing them down to 15% if you make your product in the United States of America'....
"There are so many things in that brief snippet of Trump’s speech that should worry Canadian business and political leaders.... In Canada, we have a high regulatory burden and our biggest trading partner and competitor for investment is about to have a much lower burden. That will make Canada less attractive to investment and to executives making decisions on where to expand or locate plants.
"The same on taxes. Right now, the effective corporate tax in Canada is 15% — the same level Trump wants to lower his rate to. For more than a century, Canadian industrial policy has sought to ensure a lower rate on corporate taxes as a way to attract investment and jobs. For the most part it has worked, but with an equal corporate tax rate, a reduced regulatory burden and the possibility of tariffs, the United States becomes more attractive ... unless we also change and radically alter our economic rules.
"Sadly, we are about to get a new prime minister who doesn’t see that as the way forward. A few weeks ago in Halifax, Liberal leadership hopeful Mark Carney announced that he would get rid of the consumer carbon tax but then said he’d make up the difference by increasing the industrial carbon tax....Twice he mentioned steel companies as an example of the kind of big polluter he wants to pay for his program.
"Steel companies create jobs, unlike Carney, and are already paying massively on the carbon tax. Take Algoma Steel in Sault Ste. Marie, which in the fiscal year that ended March 31, 2024, paid $24.6 million in carbon taxes on a net income of $105 million. Since then, the carbon tax already went up by 23% last April 1 and this coming April 1, it will see another increase of 19%.... [W]ere Algoma to produce the same amount of steel that they did in fiscal year 2023-24, they would be paying nearly $36 million annually in carbon taxes.... Algoma ... would likely shut down in the face of Trump’s changes and Carney’s foolish policy. Other players in the industry, like ArcelorMittal, which owns Dofasco, would likely just move production to their various American plants....
"Carney mocks the idea put forward by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre that we need to axe the tax, but that is exactly what we will need to do. In the face of tariffs, but just as much in the face of Donald Trump’s remaking of the American economy, we will have no choice.
"Actually, we will have a choice: We can stay with the status quo and sink into a recession and persistent economic decline, or we can start to rebuild our economy to compete and that includes not putting unnecessary costs on businesses and industry that will only chase away jobs and investment. Poilievre understands that; he gets that to compete in this new economic order being created by Trump that we need to unleash our own economy, diversify trade, and embrace Canada’s natural resource-based industries."
In a major victory for libertarian president Javier Milei's economic policies, Argentina's economy grew in the third quarter of 2024, ending a two-year recession.
December 17, 2024 - "Argentina has come out of a deep recession in a major victory for the country’s unorthodox President Javier Milei, who has spent the past year enacting sweeping ... reforms in Latin America’s third-largest economy. Gross domestic product grew 3.9% in the July-to-September quarter compared with the previous three months, Argentina’s statistics agency said Monday. The agriculture and mining sectors drove the expansion, with consumer spending also growing strongly. But manufacturing and construction suffered sharp declines....
"The news of the economic rebound comes a year after Milei was elected on a ticket to tackle chronic hyperinflation and overhaul the long-suffering economy. He has slashed government spending, reducing sky-high inflation and helping repair the country’s finances. But these measures have also pushed up unemployment and the poverty rate....
"Argentina’s flagship Merval stock index, which tracks around two dozen of the country’s most valuable listed companies, ... is up 174% [in 2024] as investors have welcomed Milei’s radical reforms.
"Milei inherited an economy in crisis, racked by hyperinflation that reached 211% last December and which was fueled by previous governments’ money printing to fund spending. According to the International Monetary Fund [IMF], the country’s biggest creditor, he has delivered 'better-than-expected results.' The IMF, which approved a bailout for Argentina in 2018, the fund’s biggest ever, sees the economy shrinking by 3.5% overall this year, following a 1.6% contraction last year. Projected growth of 5% next year will ... just about reverse those declines.
"Economists say Milei’s government must lift capital controls, which limit the flow of foreign currency into and out of the country, and free up the exchange rate ... to attract meaningful investment into Argentina. More business investment is key to delivering a sustained boost to economic growth and improving living standards, which will ultimately be necessary for Milei to enjoy ongoing public support and for his party to win a bigger majority in midterm elections late next year."
October 1, 2024 - "Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows businesses suffered a major setback in June. The country saw the largest wave of business closures since the depths of the 2020 pandemic, when lockdowns physically restricted businesses from activity. In just one month, Canada saw enough businesses shutter to reverse more than a year of progress.....
"Seasonally adjusted data shows 46,354 businesses closed in June, marking the largest wave in exactly 4 years. That’s right, the current environment is so rough that businesses are responding like 2020 pandemic lockdowns just kicked off. The closure rate (share as a total) also set a similar pandemic record. The rate climbed 0.2 points to 5.0% in June, meaning 1 in 20 businesses closed their doors for good last month. If that sounds high, that’s because it is—the highest rate since June 2020.
"Even more disturbing is the fact this issue is now widespread. Stat Can observed closures across industries, noting it was a broad issue. They did note that construction and retail were slightly ahead of the pack. This highlights how weak households are these days, since both industries should have seen a large boost just by sheer population growth.
The opening vs closing rate of businesses across Canada. The rate is determined as a share of total active businesses at month end.
Source: Statistics Canada.
"At the same time, fewer Canadians are starting a new business. Monthly business openings fell 8.6% (-3,746) to 39,482 businesses in June. It was the slowest month for new businesses since March 2023, and one would assume the reason for closures is also holding back budding entrepreneurs. The opening rate, openings as a share of total active businesses, was also much weaker than usual. The rate fell 0.4 points to 4.2% in June, marking the weakest rate since August 2021. Once again, the weakness was observed across all industries....
"More business closures and fewer openings means a decline in total businesses in Canada. The net balance of openings and closures reduced active businesses by 1% (-9,037) to 929,173 in June. This is the lowest number of active businesses since April 2023, meaning a single month wiped out over a year of gains for the Canadian economy....
"Canadian businesses are closing at one of the fastest clips in history — a rate not seen since they were locked down by a pandemic, and physically restricted from doing business. That doesn’t bode well with the rising unemployment rate, elevated even higher for young adults. It also seems to conflict with the [Trudeau government's] narrative of a strong economy that’s the envy of other G7 countries."
November 27, 2024 - "This week, while promoting the universally-panned Liberal government’s two-month GST tax holiday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland told Canadians that they are simply experiencing a 'disconnect' between her Liberal government’s messaging on the state of the economy and their own practical day-to-day economic realities. The fact we aren’t 'feeling' the messaging ... is 'not great' for our economy, we are told. It affects our economic behaviour. It’s so bad, in fact, that 'a lot of economists' have gone so far as to diagnose the rejection of the Liberals’ economic outlook as a 'vibecession.'
"If this ridiculous diagnostic term sounds like it came from a 25-year-old TikTok influencer — that’s because it did. Kyla Scanlon, a resident of Louisville, Ky., has been described as an American financial content creator.... Her coined term 'vibecession' appeared on her Summer 2022 Substack where she asked her readers at the time, 'Are we manifesting a recession?'
"The post appears exactly as you might expect. It rambles in the pseudo-psychological self-help tone we’ve come to expect from Gen-Z: 'I know that there is too much going on to even begin to process what is happening, and I am hoping to talk about *why* some of the stuff feels so weird and bad in this piece. I sincerely hope that you are doing okay.' Its opening stickman graphic suggests that, to solve our 'vibecession,' we simply need to dam up the 'discourse' from our river of bad vibes to prevent it from washing over our reality. It even includes a Charles Bukowski poem.
"The same year, Scanlon’s theory that we are manifesting a poor economy rather than the more obvious explanation that we are suffering through one, somehow made it all the way to the New York Times as a guest essay titled, 'The Vibes in the Economy Are … Weird. Really Weird.' Interestingly, the link to the study that purports to prove her theory that it is vibes and not our economic realities that affect our spending behaviours has since been 'unalived.' The link is dead.
"In 2024, Scanlon’s theory made its way to its proper home in Cultural Vibrations: New Paradigms 2024, a journal published by 'thesis-led venture capital firm' Hannah Grey. One page of the journal titled, 'Navigating the Vibecession,' is dedicated to Scanlon’s TikTok page. In fact, the entire page is screenshots of Kyla’s face on TikTok with topic thought bubbles including 'Zuck goggles,' 'confusing data,' and 'Tswift nostalgia' — which I can only assume has something to do with Taylor Swift.
"As of September this year, the Biden White House and Federal Reserve start[ed] taking her musings as serious economic advice. So, directly or indirectly, a 25-year-old Kyla Scanlon was the 'economist' Freeland was referring to when she claimed the vibecession is on us. But it’s not the fault, by any means, of a 25-year-old TikTok star that a major media outlet and governments have used her cultural musings as economic advice. That’s on them....
"Occam’s razor states the simplest explanation is usually the best, and here it is: People are not spending. And it isn’t because we have bad vibes. Forgive me the personal anecdote, but groceries to feed my family of four cost $1,000 a month not that long ago. Now, they cost over $1,400.... Likewise, gas prices have risen. None of this has to do with 'feelings.' None of it has been manifested into existence by myself or other Canadians.
"Don’t let the Liberal government gaslight you into accepting the cultural theories of a TikTok influencer as an explanation for your economic realities — what you’re experiencing is the very real effects of nine years of Liberal governance and poor polices. You did not bring this on yourselves."
"We have governed these first six months of the year uphill, managing the worst inheritance in history and without the legislative power or instruments that all governments before ours have had," says Javier Milei.... "And they put sticks in our wheel every single day that we try to govern.... But you know what? All this is proving that the ideas of freedom are stronger."
September 27, 2024 - "During a conference in Buenos Aries sponsored by the Cato Institute and Libertad y Progreso, Argentine President Javier Milei explained why socialism always fails, why big government (the 'State') is criminal ... and why he is a libertarian.... 'My friends, I'm a liberal libertarian' ... said Milei.... The two-day conference (June 11–12), attended by up to 1,000 people, was entitled 'The Rebirth of Liberty in Argentina and Beyond.'
"Milei, the most outspoken and orthodox libertarian elected to the presidency of a major country, took office in December 2023. Although his critics and much of the mainstream media have tried to characterize him as an impractical zealot — El Loco, the madman — so far Milei has implemented a good portion of his agenda.... For instance, since taking office, Milei has slashed government spending up to 30%, fired more than 25,000 federal workers, reduced federal agencies, frozen public works projects, lowered a major import tariff, maintained budget surpluses every month, reduced monthly inflation to 4.2% (August 2024) from 25% (December 2023), and is pushing for currency competition....
"It is not all roses, however, as he explained in his speech because his administration is fighting against 100 years of government intervention. This soft socialism has corrupted the government, the courts, the economy, the culture, the schools, and the people.
“'We have governed these first six months of the year uphill, managing the worst inheritance in history and without the legislative power or instruments that all governments before ours have had,' said Milei. 'Politics, since before we took power, has put sticks in our wheels. They put sticks in our wheel by tearing up the balance sheet of the central bank. And they put sticks in our wheel every single day that we try to govern.... But you know what?' he said. 'All this is proving that the ideas of freedom are stronger because, despite the foul political caste, we’re doing right. We’re beating inflation.'
“There is no doubt that Argentina is facing a turning point,' he added. '[W]e can return to the path of freedom that we should never have wandered from and return to the values and ideas that once made Argentina a global power, resume the defense of life, freedom, and private property, and aspire to be a country at the level of our identity and our history once again.'
"Between 1860 and 1930, Argentina 'grew more rapidly than the United States, Canada, Australia, or Brazil' ... according to Agriculture and Economic Growth in Argentina, 1913–84. By 1913, Argentina was among 'the 10 wealthiest countries in the world,' with a per capita income similar to Switzerland, the Latin American Economic Review reported. That changed with a military takeover in 1930, which introduced statist, big government policies tainted by socialist thinking. Government intervention and economic malaise have characterized Argentina for the last 100 years. Milei is trying to reintroduce the libertarian policies that once made Argentina great.
"'[I]n Argentina we are rediscovering ideas that made the modern Western world the greatest civilizing and economic development achievement in human history,' said Milei. 'We want to be a haven for those who defend and live these ideas throughout the entire planet.' Today, 'Argentina is on the private sector side, not the state,” he said. “On the side of those who work, those who trade, those who strive; on the side of those who take risks, those who invest, who innovate.'
"'As developed countries become bogged down in unnecessary regulations and obligations, we remove the regulations that have bound our people for decades,' said Milei, 'and we invite capital from around the world to cooperate with Argentina because we understand free economic activity as the most natural act of cooperation of the human race.'
"Milei also explained how big-government bureaucrats in Argentina and other countries corrupt the economy with socialist policies. 'As Hayek said, every time the state intervenes, it generates a worse result than if it hadn’t intruded,' said Milei. 'Why? Because state intervention causes distortions in the pricing system. It prevents correct economic calculation and consequently nullifies what Hayek called the correct functioning of the market as a discovery process.' With capitalism and free pricing you have better 'information about quantities of goods or services that are wanted and at what price,' said Milei. Collectivism, however, inhibits the discovery process and 'binds the entrepreneur’s hands and impedes them from producing better goods and offering better services at a better price'....
"Where economic freedom is allowed, there is more political freedom, said Milei. '[F]reer countries have a GDP per capita 12 times larger than oppressed countries. Even the inhabitants of the lowest decile of the free system live better than 90% of the population in the repressed countries. That is, free enterprise capitalism is superior to socialism even on the main task that socialism supposedly does better, which is to help the less fortunate.'
"Social justice, charity for 'those who have the least,” said Milei, 'it is good, but if you do it with your own pocket [money]' and not with money that belongs to someone else. When the state intervenes in the name of social welfare, it confiscates 'assets from a private person, which are theirs by natural right, which means that the state is a criminal and violent organization, as it is funded with a coercive source of income called taxes.' Echoing Hayek, Milei said the more the state intervenes 'the less free the markets are and the worse they work, producing misery instead of wealth.'
"In closing, he said, 'If we manage to remove the state enough for society to flourish, we will have succeeded because free economic activity will lead to benefits for all of society. If we achieve this, it won’t be a triumph of ours but of society as a whole, which will have left behind 100 years of statism and decadence. Therefore, as we travel the road to that new Argentina, I thank you all for being here. God bless the Argentines and may the force of Heaven be with us. Long live freedom, damn it! Long live freedom, damn it! Long live freedom, damn it! Thank you.'"
"More Canadians are receiving Employment Insurance benefits, as unemployment continues to grow across the country."
August 25, 2024 - "The number of Canadians receiving Employment Insurance benefits has risen over 10% since the same time last year, according to new data released by Statistics Canada. According to new data released on Thursday, 474,000 Canadians are receiving Employment Insurance benefits, rising 6,000, or 1.3%, since the previous month, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. Since June 2023, regular EI beneficiaries have increased by 44,720 to 473,980 recipients, a rise of 10.4%....
“'In general, variations in the number of EI beneficiaries can reflect changes in circumstances of different groups, including those becoming beneficiaries, those going back to work, those exhausting their regular benefits, and those no longer receiving benefits for other reasons,' reads the report....
"Unemployment reached 6.4% in June 2024 across the country. This saw a similar rise from the year prior, growing 0.9% from 5.5% in June 2023, which had risen 0.5% from 5.0% in June 2022.
"Statistics Canada attributed the rise in unemployment to 'more people search[ing] for work, while overall employment held steady.' However, the more people searching for work were new immigrants to the country.... Canada’s population grew by nearly 100,000 between May and June 2024.
"While EI recipients rose by 1.3% between May and June 2024, not all provinces saw an increase. Alberta, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia were the only three provinces to see a decrease in recipients, at 1.7%, 1.4%, and 0.2% decreases, respectively.
"The biggest increase in EI recipients between May and June 2024 was found in Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Ontario, at 2.7%, 2.5%, and 1.7%, respectively.... Ontario saw the biggest increase by a large margin in EI recipients year-over-year, rising 25.1%....
"Canadians who last worked in natural and applied sciences have seen a 26.3% rise in accessing EI over the last year. Following that are those who worked in manufacturing and utilities, as well as legislative and senior management, which saw increases of 21.8% and 20.8%, respectively. Conversely, those who last worked in natural resources and agriculture, art, culture, recreation and sport both saw annual decreases in EI beneficiaries, at 7.2% and 1.2%, respectively....
"The increase was led by men aged 25 to 54 years old, which saw a rise of 12.8% in EI beneficiaries year-over-year, followed by women in the same age group, which saw a rise of 10.5%....
"Despite the recent rise, EI beneficiaries have fallen greatly from [a] peak in Jan. 2022 of 671,390, the furthest the data goes back."
August 24, 2025 - "The median family income has seen a year-over-year decrease in all parts of Canada due to inflation, according to numbers from Statistics Canada. In 2022, after-tax income was $60,800, according to data released on Aug. 19. While that was a 2.5 percent increase from 2021, when including the annual inflation of 6.8 percent, after-tax income was 4 percent lower than the previous year.
"The decrease in median family income was seen in all provinces and territories, StatCan said. The largest decrease was in Nunavut at minus 8.4 percent, followed by the Northwest Territories at minus 7.2 percent. Nova Scotia saw the third lowest drop in family income at minus 5.6 percent.
"StatCan said that the median family after-tax income for 2022 was about equal to pre-pandemic income. Broken down by province, Quebec, the Yukon, and B.C. saw increases in the median family income from 2019 by 5 percent, 1.7 percent, and 1.3 percent respectively. All other provinces saw a drop....
"Almost all types of family groups saw a drop in median income in 2022, when adjusted for inflation, StatCan said. Younger families saw the biggest decrease, with single-parent families where the parent was under 25 years old seeing a 15.1 percent decrease in income. Median income for this family group was $24,690, according to the data.
"Single Canadians 25 years and younger saw a 12.9 percent drop in median income to $17,650. That was the lowest median income of all family groups. Couples 25 years and younger saw a 9 percent decline in median income to $45,070 in 2022. Older Canadians also saw a decrease, but not as much as younger families....
"Some cities saw increases in median family income between 2019 and 2022, with the biggest increase in Sherbrooke at 6.2 percent. Montreal saw the second highest income increase 5.2 percent, followed by Trois-Rivières at 5.2 percent and Saguenay at 5.1 percent. Cities that saw the largest decrease in family income were Edmonton at minus 5.1 percent, Windsor at minus 4.3 percent, and Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo at 4.1 percent."
In 2024, for the first time ever, Canada has became a net importer of electricity, thanks to an energy strategy that puts decarbonization ahead of energy security.
July 5, 2024 - "In its monthly update on energy trends, Statistics Canada reported this week that this year, for the first time ever, Canada has become a net importer of electricity.... Traditionally, Canada has generated surplus electricity that it has exported to the U.S. But in April total electricity generation was down 6.9 per cent from a year ago, continuing a trend that began earlier this year.
"The decline is the result of droughts across much of the country that have curtailed hydroelectric generation as well as planned maintenance at nuclear stations. Hydro and nuclear account for just over two-thirds of all electricity generation in Canada. Hydro contributed 26.0 million megawatt-hours (MWh) and nuclear 5.2 MWh of the total electrical production of 45.7 MWh in April. With hydro and nuclear power generation falling at home, we had to import 2.6 million MWh from the United States in April, while our exports plunged a whopping 64.4 per cent to 1.7 million MWh.
"Canada’s plan to lower greenhouse gas emissions largely depends on hydro power supplying most of our rapidly growing energy needs. We remain ambivalent about nuclear power, with Ontario and New Brunswick the only two provinces producing it.... Critics of wind and solar power often emphasize their intermittent nature when the wind is not blowing or the sun not shining. Intermittent electricity sources like these require maintaining reliable backup energy sources, notably power plants that burn fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas or coal. The recent reduction in hydro generation highlights how it, too, can sometimes be an unreliable source of power....
"Energy security means a reliable and affordable supply. Any prolonged interruption of supply would be catastrophic. In February 2022 Texas was within minutes of its electrical grid collapsing during an ice storm, a calamity that could not have been fully repaired until May. Here at home, Alberta’s grid was pushed almost beyond its limit during a severe cold snap this January. That would have been more consequential and life-threatening than a grid collapse in Texas given the extreme cold Alberta was experiencing.
"Electricity is fundamental to the lives and lifestyles of most Canadians. As former Ontario cabinet minister Dwight Duncan observed at a recent conference on energy policy, Ontario and Quebec have the highest energy demand in the world because of peak demand in both winter and summer. But there is a disconnect between Canada’s ambition to electrify our power grid and our reluctance to expand electricity capacity. Electrifying our homes and vehicles while using energy-hungry technology implies a massive increase in our electricity consumption.
"Only recently have governments begun to realize projected electricity demands far exceed supplies. That is why Ontario and Quebec recently announced ambitious and expensive plans to boost generation. Ontario is expanding and refurbishing its extensive network of nuclear plants. In Quebec, the Legault government recently installed Michael Sabia as head of Hydro Quebec to carry out a plan to substantially increase hydro and wind power to meet future demand, discarding plans that emphasized energy conservation and inevitably would have required unpopular price hikes. Alberta’s near-death experience has led it to restructure its grid to reduce the priority given to unpredictable renewable sources.
"Canada’s shift to being a net importer of electricity so far this year is a reminder that we have much work to do to increase production, especially since importing American electricity means relying on high-emission fossil fuels to generate power. Our plodding approach to building mega projects in recent decades raises serious questions about whether we will be successful.
"The European Union’s single-minded focus on decarbonizing its energy supply ended even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the cost to households, industry and governments mounted. Richard Norris of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute characterizes our own refusal to acknowledge the primordial importance of abundant and cheap energy as 'energy blindness.' That blindness needs to end."
June 13, 2024 - "The federal carbon tax will have a negative economic impact on Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) of $25 billion, or approximately one per cent, in 2030 according to the government’s own internal data it released on Thursday. Those numbers, which were shared with the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) last month on the condition they remain confidential, were published as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was about to deliver a speech to call on the government to disclose them publicly. The government had previously said it could not release the data because it could contain sensitive information....
"Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) estimates that the real, or inflation-adjusted, GDP in a scenario without a carbon tax in 2030 would be $2,688 billion. With a carbon tax, that number drops to $2,663, which is a difference of $25 billion. That amounts to a 0.92 per cent reduction in real GDP in 2030."
June 13, 2024 - "The Trudeau Liberals after weeks of evasion finally released carbon tax data Thursday morning. The ever-increasing tax has made a $20 billion-a-year dent in the Canadian economy.It results in an additional annual cost of $1,200 per family every year, to continue increasing. By 2030 it will cost Canadians $30.5 billion annually. The Official Opposition is now calling for the resignation of Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault.
"'We just learned moments ago that this country has been keeping a $20 billion secret, said Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) revealed that there was a report the government had been covering up, and had gagged him from releasing, about the actual cost to Canadians. Now, the pressure that is weighing heavily on Liberal MPs, the government has finally relented, and released part of the information. It had to be pulled out like a rotten tooth! And rotten it is, $20 billion per year, in lost GDP as a result of the carbon tax. That works out to $1,200 per family in extra annual costs for Canadians.
"Guilbeault 'must resign over (his) $30 Billion carbon tax coverup,' the Conservatives wrote in a statement Thursday after figures were released. He has 'been caught in a lie.
For years, he has told Canadians that the carbon tax was somehow making them richer, while hiding a secret internal report that proved that Trudeau’s carbon tax will cost Canadians $30.5 billion each year, nearly $2,000 per Canadian family, by 2030. As a direct consequence of Trudeau’s carbon tax, life has become unaffordable. Families will have to pay $700 more for groceries this year, while millions of Canadians are lining up outside of food banks. In Toronto, one in ten people are having to rely on food banks to survive.
Guilbeault and the Liberal Government have been lying to Canadians and hiding this inconvenient truth.... He must resign, and if he won’t then Justin Trudeau must fire him and start telling Canadians the truth.
"Franco Terrazzano, director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, told the Western Standard the Trudeau Liberals’ carbon tax is costing Canadians an excessive amount of money and it needs to stop. ''The government’s own data confirms the carbon tax will cost Canada big time,' said Terrazzano.... 'The feds must scrap the carbon tax now.'”
Economics writer Ruchir Sharma, chair of Rockefeller International, classes Canada among the "nations that not too long ago were billed as star performers but are now breaking down."
May 9, 2024 - "Chair of Rockefeller International Ruchir Sharma has observed Canada to be leading the way in once great economies that are 'now breaking down.' The head of the institution that 'served the Rockefeller family and institutional investors for generations' singled Canada out for its rapidly declining GDP, the inability for the nation’s young people to buy homes and its lagging in technological advancements.
"In an article headlined A warning from the breakdown nations ... published in the Financial Times ... Sharma argues there are lessons to be learned for 'current stars' on the world stage like the US and India from countries that once had thriving economies but since have shrunk.... Sharma lists the examples of these 'breakdown nations' and advises they 'carry a lesson' — 'growth is hard, sustaining it even harder, so the stars of today are not necessarily the stars of tomorrow.'
“'It is worth looking at nations that not too long ago were billed as star performers but are now breaking down,' writes Sharma. 'Led by Canada, Chile, Germany, South Africa and Thailand. All are among the world’s 50 largest economies and, so far this decade, have suffered both a sharp decline in real per capita income growth, and a fall in their share of global gross domestic product.'
“'Take Canada first,' Sharma writes, recalling how Canada was once 'widely admired for how it weathered the global financial crisis of 2008' but the nation 'missed the boat when the world moved on, driven by big tech instead of commodities.'
"Sharma notes Canada’s per capita GDP has been declining each year since 2020 by 0.4%, ... worse than any developed country in the top 50. He further attributed any new investment and job growth [to] 'being driven mainly by the government.'
"'Private-sector action is confined largely to the property market, which does little for productivity and prosperity. Many young people can’t afford to buy in one of the world’s most expensive housing markets,' writes Sharma. 'Pressed to name a digital success, Canadians cite Shopify — but the online store is the only tech name among the country’s 10 largest companies, and its shares are trading at half their 2021 peak'....
"The takeaway is to be wary of 'hidden traps (that) line the path of development and can spring on nations. Any country can find itself stuck — until it finds the leadership and vision to chart a way out,' he concludes. 'For current stars, the message is a warning: don’t take growth for granted.'”
Economic Vandalism | Pierre Poilievre | June 11, 2024: [Note: This video is political propaganda, and selectively presents only facts that fit its narrative. But (in its first 14 minutes, up until the campaign commercial at the end) it is the best presentation and explanation of those facts that I can remember seeing. - GD] ,
15 June 15, 2024 - "A report from the Department of Social Development shows the cost of living has overtaken years of progress in lowering poverty rates, per Blacklock’s Reporter.
"The department counted a half million Canadians who fell into poverty due to inflation in a December 11 briefing report. 'Future increases in the rate of poverty could stall progress towards reaching the 2030 poverty reduction target of a 50% reduction in poverty versus 2015 levels,' said the federal report.
"The department estimates 9.9% of Canadians, approximately four million people, live in poverty compared to 6.4% in 2020. That works out to 'approximately 400,000 more Canadians,' the report said. 'High inflation coupled with lagging household incomes has led to affordability pressures among many households.'
"The National Advisory Council on Poverty prior to the December report said inflation remained a worry for millions of Canadians. 'We noted a growing sense of hopelessness and desperation,' wrote the council.
Persons with lived expertise of poverty and service providers alike told us things seem worse now than they were before and during the first years of the pandemic.'
We heard that people are worried about the rising cost of living and inflation. More people are in crisis and these crises are more visible in our communities.
Recent increases in the cost of living represent one of the most important socioeconomic challenges faced by people living in Canada following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is expected this will put upward pressure on poverty rates.
In speaking to people it seems as though the feelings of hopefulness and optimism for change that we saw early in the pandemic have faded. Hopelessness and desperation have replaced these as the cost of living continues to increase....
"The social development department last November 28 acknowledged inflation was driving more Canadians into poverty. 'The rising cost of food will be reflected in Canada’s poverty rate,' it wrote."
February 5, 2024 - "Business insolvencies in Canada jumped the most in 36 years of records in 2023, as debt costs rose and the economy weakened. The number of businesses that filed for insolvency was the highest in 13 years, according to figures out last week from the federal Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy.... The rise was mainly due to bankruptcies, rather than a renegotiation of terms, said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist for Alberta Central. Bankruptcies were up 75.6 per cent year over year, mostly in accommodation and food services, retail and construction.
“'Businesses have been struggling to cope with a myriad of financial challenges over the past year, including higher input costs, wage costs, and debt servicing costs, exacerbating the rocky footing many have been on ever since the pandemic,' said André Bolduc, chair of the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals (CAIRP).... Business owners who were unable to pay back government pandemic loans known as CEBA by the Jan. 19 deadline now have to pay five per cent interest and make monthly payments on what was previously an interest-free loan with no monthly payments, CAIRP says."
May 6, 2024 - "Data released by the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy on Friday shows that business insolvencies in Canada increased 87.2% between the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. The number of insolvencies between the two years increased from 1,070 to 2,003. Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, insolvencies increased from 1,521 to 2,003, a 31.7% increase.
"Consumers weren’t immune ... with consumer insolvencies increasing for the eighth consecutive quarter when measuring year-over-year increases, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019. Insolvencies among consumers in Canada increased by 14% between the first quarter of 2023 and 2024. Consumer insolvencies increased from 29,725 to 33,885 between the two years. Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, insolvencies increased from 31,813 to 33,885, a 6.5% increase. On average, 372 Canadians filed for consumer insolvency daily in the first quarter of 2024.
“'A perfect storm of economic challenges is brewing, with high mortgage renewal rates, soaring rental prices, and elevated costs of everyday necessities. The high cost of servicing debts is also compounding the financial strain for many Canadians and leaving them grappling with insurmountable debt burdens,' said André Bolduc, Chair of the Canadian Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals....
"Business insolvencies surging 87.2% was the largest annual increase in 37 years of records from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy, according to the CAIRP. 'We are seeing signs of a significant rise in distress among Canadian businesses. Many are still shouldering the burden of the pandemic, on top of high input and labour costs, declining consumer spending, and higher debt-carrying costs,' said Bolduc.
"The actual number of business closures is even higher, considering many business owners decide to cease operations without pursuing formal insolvency proceedings. Based on members surveyed by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, only 10% of their members who considered closing their business would officially file for bankruptcy....
"The government’s decision not to extend the CEBA deadline was 'the straw that broke the camel’s back,' said Simon Gaudreault, chief economist and vice president of research at the CFIB. Gaudreault said that other factors contributing to businesses filing for bankruptcy included lost revenue from public health closures, supply chain challenges, inflation, increased costs, rising interest rates, and labour shortages.
"Statistics Canada’s most recent data shows that 43,121 businesses closed in January 2024."
The annual May Day march in Montreal turned violent, with demonstrators smashing the windows of businesses, setting off smoke bombs, and fighting with police.
May 2, 2024 - "Local and federal politicians are condemning the actions of protestors after the annual May Day march in Montreal turned violent, with demonstrators smashing windows of businesses and setting off smoke bombs. Thousands of people turned out to the International Workers Day or May Day march at Francois-Perrault Park near the Saint-Michel metro station on May 1, according to reports. The event was organized by a coalition of unions and community organizations under the umbrella group May 1 Montreal Coalition.
"Videos circulating on social media show protestors in black masks and hoods smashing windows and throwing parking cones and other items. Montreal police said officers had to step in to disperse the crowd. 'Due to several offenses committed during [demonstrations], we are carrying out a dispersal operation in the Sherbrooke/Robert-Bourassa sector. People must leave the premises immediately,' police said in a post on X.
"Smoke bombs, parking cones, trash cans, and signs were thrown about by demonstrators, according to a TVA reporter, who also said officers were attacked and pepper spray was used.
"The Epoch Times contacted the May 1 Montreal Coalition and Montreal police for comment but did not hear back by publication time.
"Montreal Mayor Valerie Plante condemned the protesters’ behaviour in a post on social media. 'These actions are absolutely unacceptable,' she said in a May 2 post on social media. 'I denounce the mayhem suffered by downtown merchants last night during the anti-capitalist demonstration'....
"This year’s theme for the protest event was ‘united to make our voices heard,’ according to a press release from the coalition. The release said there were concerns that needed to be handled collectively, including climate change, working conditions of temporary foreign workers, 'antidemocratic abuses' by Quebec Premier François Legault, and an out-of-touch government."
April 17, 2024 - "The Liberal government’s 2024 federal budget has sent shockwaves through Canada’s tech sector, with sweeping increases to capital gains taxes being the main cause for concern. Leaders within the industry are voicing criticism at the Liberals, suggesting that further taxation could drive businesses and talent south of the border. The budget, delivered by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, raises the inclusion rate for capital gains tax from 50% to 66% for individuals on amounts exceeding $250,000. The amendments to the Income Tax Act will come into effect on June 25, 2024. The Liberals expect to make $19.4 billion over the next five years from [the move]....
"Benjamin Bergen, president of the Council of Canadian Innovators, explained in his organization’s response to the budget that the best way for the government to boost its revenue is to drive economic growth and productivity gains by helping Canada’s innovators. 'We hope that Minister Freeland and the Liberal government will listen to innovators and adjust this proposed tax hike before they do irreparable harm to the Canadian innovation economy,' he said....
"Local entrepreneur Boris Wertz ... felt that the Liberals had 'lost their plot on innovation and entrepreneurship.' His biggest concerns were 'trying to pick winners (e.g. superclusters); proposing very rigid AI regulations; dramatic increase of number of public sector employees; (and) increasing capital gain rate.' The budget promises to invest $2.4 billion in AI support, $5.1 million of which will be dedicated toward the Artificial Intelligence and Data Act — ensuring that AI is 'safe and non-discriminatory,' according to the Liberal government....
"Kim Furlong, CEO of the Canadian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association, said that her organization is 'baffled' by the Liberals’ decision to increase the capital gains tax. 'This measure, which effectively taxes innovation and risk-taking, will significantly dampen Canada’s entrepreneurial spirit, stifle economic growth in critical sectors of our economy, and impact job creation. Such policy change undermines Canada’s position to attract the talent needed to grow and scale companies here,' she said. 'CVCA will work tirelessly to reverse this decision,' said Furlong.
"The founder of a venture capital firm, Christian Lassonde, said that Canada is desperate for new investment dollars. 'What does this government do? Punish investing. You can’t make this stuff up,' he wrote in a post to X.
"President and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Dan Kelly, said that the capital gains tax changes will demotivate Canadians from starting businesses in the first place. 'Several sectors of Canada’s (small and medium enterprises) community will be hit with higher capital gain taxes on business sales above $2.25 million, including restaurants, hotels, doctors’ offices, insurance brokers, real estate firms, recreation and arts and recreation firms,' said Kelly in a post to X.
"Armon Shokravi, co-founder of a software development business, explained in a post to X that the tax changes, of an inclusion rate from 50 to 66%, would increase the net capital gains tax from 27% to 36%, compared to the United States, who have a tax rate of 20%. 'In my conversations with Canadian entrepreneurs, it’s clear: They’re feeling less motivated to build businesses here when moving just a bit south could mean saving a lot more,' he said.....
"Independent MP Kevin Vuong shared a text message from a local business owner. The former founder, who works in the tech sector, said that they and their partner sat down last night and began the process of moving to the United States. 'We’re leaving to a country that celebrates entrepreneurs and innovation,' they said. 'The world is too competitive for talent and Canada is not competitive anymore.'
April 16, 2024 - "Time and time again, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland have emphasized the importance of being fiscally responsible with federal finances. Unfortunately, this year’s federal budget ensures once again their rhetoric rings hollow due to their ongoing mismanagement of federal finances. This mismanagement is rooted in the government’s insatiable appetite for new and expanded programs or services, which has endured for nine years and will continue for the foreseeable future.
"The budget introduces billions of dollars in additional spending for a national school food program, housing initiatives and artificial intelligence. As such, program spending (total spending minus debt interest costs) is now expected to be $77.2 billion higher over the next four years than the government forecasted last spring. In 2024/25 alone, federal program spending will reach a projected $483.6 billion—an increase of $16.1 billion compared to the previous budget’s estimates.... The Trudeau government has already recorded the five (2018 to 2022) highest levels of federal program spending per person in Canadian history (inflation-adjusted).... This is despite recent polling data that shows the majority of Canadians (59 per cent) think the Trudeau government is spending too much. Nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of Canadians are also concerned about the size of the federal deficit.
"As it has done nine times before, the Trudeau government will borrow to fund some of its spending spree, resulting in a projected budget deficit of $39.8 billion this year, which is $4.8 billion higher than previously forecasted. And it doesn’t intend to stop borrowing, with annual deficits exceeding $20 billion planned for the subsequent four years.... Simply put, there’s no plan for a return to balanced budgets any time soon. As a result, federal debt (net debt minus non-financial assets) is expected to climb $156.2 billion from now until April 2029....
"Growing federal debt leads to higher debt interest costs, all else equal, which eat up taxpayer dollars that could otherwise have provided services or tax relief for Canadians. For context, the government now spends more ($54.1 billion) on debt interest as on health-care transfers to the provinces ($52.1 billion). Accumulating debt today also increases the tax burden on future generations of Canadians who are ultimately responsible for paying off this debt. Research suggests this effect could be disproportionate, with future generations needing to pay back a dollar borrowed today with more than one dollar in future taxes....
"But again, it didn’t have to be this way.... [H]ad the government simply limited the growth in annual program spending to 0.3 per cent for two years, it could have balanced the budget by 2026/27.... Instead, the government chose to increase annual program spending by an average of 4.4 per cent over the next two years and kick the debt problem down the road for another government to solve.
"Yet for all this spending and debt, living standards have not improved for Canadians. In fact, inflation-adjusted GDP per person was actually lower at the end of 2023 than it was nine years prior in 2014. And going forward, the OECD predicts Canada will record the lowest growth rates in per-person GDP up to 2060 of any industrialized country....
"The combination of tax hikes and scale of spending and debt in this year’s federal budget demonstrate the Trudeau government has no interest in being fiscally responsible or improving living standards for Canadians. Instead of showing restraint, the government chose to repeat its mistakes and lead federal finances down an increasingly perilous path."
March 21, 2024 - "Despite calls from seven of Canada’s premiers ... to scrap the upcoming carbon tax hike, ... Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has doubled down as he tries to convince Canadians this tax, ... set to rise from $65 per tonne of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) to $80 per tonne on April 1, will really be good for them. Speaking with reporters in Calgary (not coincidentally Premier Danielle Smith’s backyard), the prime minister said, 'My job is not to be popular. My job is to do the right things for Canada now and do the right things for Canadians a generation from now' to 'deliver that better future one generation from now, two generations from now.'
"But Trudeau’s argument that somehow GHG reductions, which might stem from Canada’s carbon tax, will yield appreciable benefits of any kind — economic or environmental — now or in the future is nonsense....
"Canada’s share of global GHG emissions is slowly declining and small relative to the world’s larger emitters, particularly China. Indeed, in 2021 Canada’s emissions comprised 1.5% of global GHG emissions compared to 26% for China (in 2018). And since 2005, emissions from China increased by a staggering 71.7%. It’s absurd to think that, even if Canada could drive its GHG emissions to zero, there would be any measurable impact on the global climate. And no impact on climate means no improved environmental benefits for future generations.
"Economically, the prime minister’s argument is even less compelling.... According to a study published by the Fraser Institute, implementing a $170 carbon tax would shrink Canada’s economy by 1.8% and produce significant job losses and reduced real income in every province....
"Trudeau government policies, including the carbon tax and imposition of federal bills C-48 (which bans large oil tankers carrying crude oil off British Columbia’s north coast, limiting access to Asian markets) and C-69 (which introduces subjective criteria including the 'social impact' of energy investment into the evaluation process of major energy projects), combined with impending regulations such as GHG emission caps, are contributing to a collapse in business investment and ultimately economic stagnation in Canada. Per-person gross domestic product (GDP) — a broad measure of living standards — ... stood in 2014 at $58,162, which is $51 higher than at the end of 2023 (inflation-adjusted). In other words, living standards for Canadians have declined.
"Capital investment, which contributes to economic growth and higher living standards, is also declining. A 2021 Fraser Institute study showed that the growth rate of overall capital expenditures in Canada slowed substantially from 2005 to 2019 and the growth rate from 2015 to 2019 was lower than in virtually any other period since 1970.... [F]rom 2010 to 2019, Canada’s investment growth rate dropped substantially below that of the United States and many other developed countries. Corporate investment in Canada as a share of total investment was also the lowest among a set of developed countries from 2005 to 2019.
"Far from delivering environmental or economic benefits for Canadians 'one generation from now' or 'two generations from now,' Trudeau’s policies have thrown serious shadows over the future economic prospects of Canadians, who will find themselves less well-off and less economically capable of adapting to predicted climate risks, whether manmade or natural."
November 3, 2023 - "Canada would not be embroiled in a political carbon tax crisis today were it not for the background endorsement of economists who argue that a carbon tax is a principled market mechanism that can be used to correct a 'market failure' such as climate change. In the words of a now-famous 2019 statement signed by 45 market-oriented economists, including former U.S. Federal Reserve chairs Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, a carbon tax is a sound market-based solution to a global problem. 'By correcting a well-known market failure, a carbon tax will send a powerful price signal that harnesses the invisible hand of the marketplace to steer economic actors towards a low-carbon future.' Since 2019, the statement has been signed by more than 3,600 economic thinkers and is described by the Climate Leadership Council as 'The largest public statement of economists in history'....
"The 'invisible hand' mentioned in the economic statement gives the impression that a carbon tax is aligned with the ideas that enlightenment economist Adam Smith and others — from liberals to neo-liberals to libertarians — have championed over government control and planning. The economists’ endorsement of invisible hand principles in the context of a carbon tax is, at minimum, misleading. The imposition of a carbon price by government — such as Canada’s $170 a tonne target — is nothing but a government price-fixing scheme.
"In a market economy, prices are not the starting line for economic activity nor are they the means to control supply and demand as implied by proponents of carbon taxation. Prices are the end point of economic activity. In a market economy prices are the product of supply and demand based on the multitude of individual and corporate choices that lead to final transaction prices. The dynamic of supply and demand determines price, a process that takes place outside the knowledge and thought processes of the economic actors.
“'Every money price of a good on the market, is determined by the supply and demand schedules of the individual buyers and sellers, and their action tends to establish a uniform equilibrium price on the market at the point of intersection.' So wrote the late Murray N. Rothbard in Man, Economy and State: A Treatise on Economic Principles. Another giant of free-market economics, Friedrich Hayek, described the invisible hand process in his 1946 essay “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” In a market economy, no one person or power determines pricing.
It is more than a metaphor to describe the price system as a kind of machinery for registering change, or a system of telecommunications which enables individual producers to watch merely the movement of a few pointers, as an engineer might watch the hands of a few dials, in order to adjust their activities to changes of which they may never know more than is reflected in the price movement.
"Using tax power to set a price to force a market movement stands the economic system on its head and gets the process backwards. With carbon taxation, the state is imposing a visible hand in an extreme and unprecedented way. For one thing, no participant in a market economy driven by the invisible hand would or could raise prices so as to ultimately reduce demand to zero....
"The idea that high and rising carbon prices can be used to remove carbon from the economy runs up against the fact that carbon-based fossil fuels are currently part of the foundation for most economic activity. They are essential today, to the point where industry and consumers cannot do without them. They are, as economists say, price inelastic. A doubling or even a quadrupling via taxation will not end demand for fossil fuels without killing economic activity. According to the 3,600 economist backers of carbon taxation, this little problem can be overcome by returning all the revenue from the carbon taxes to taxpayers 'to maximize the fairness and political viability of a rising carbon tax.' The Trudeau Liberal plan for Canada follows that advice.
"There is nothing invisible about carbon taxes. They are a perversion of free-market economic theory. We should bite the visible hand and axe the tax."
Canada's carbon tax "has a negligible impact on inflation" claim 200 Canadian economists in an open letter defending the tax. However, their only citation for this claim is a flawed Bank of Canada analysis.
March 27, 2024 - "The headline made it sound pretty clear, 'Economists defend Liberals’ carbon price as political rhetoric heats up.' A story under a headline like that might make you think there was a hefty defence laid out for the carbon tax being imposed and soon to be increased by the Trudeau Liberals. You’d be wrong if you read the story, but you’d also be wrong to think there was a robust defence of the carbon tax in the open letter from economists that it was based upon....
“The letter ... address[es] what they said were five myths about the carbon tax. Given that this letter is from economists, it’s the portion that discusses the impact of the carbon tax that caught my eye. The letter claims that the carbon tax is not affecting inflation and then cites ... a thoroughly debunked claim from the Bank of Canada as proof. 'According to the Bank of Canada, carbon pricing has caused less than 1/20th of Canada’s inflation in the past two years,' the letter says.
"This claim was made by bank governor Tiff Macklem last fall and was widely reported, but never fact-checked by the media. Instead, asking the bank how it got to that figure fell to academic Sylvain Charlebois. Charlebois, the senior director of the Agri-foods Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University who is also known as the 'Food Professor,' asked the bank to explain how it arrived at that claim. Given Charlebois’ interest in food prices and food inflation, the answer was shocking.
"The Bank of Canada admitted that it only looked at the impact of gasoline, heating oil and natural gas when applied directly to the consumer to arrive at its claim that the carbon tax is responsible for less than 1/20th of Canada’s inflation. That ... fails to take into account the pass-through impact of the tax on consumers.
"A cucumber grow[er] in one of southwestern Ontario’s many greenhouses would have to pay the carbon tax on the CO2 used to grow the cucumber[s]. The trucking company that picked up the cucumber would have to pay the carbon tax on the fuel used to transport the cucumber. The warehouse that stores the cucumber and the store that sells it will both pay the carbon tax on keeping that cuke cool. You will only pay the carbon tax on the gas it takes for you to drive to the store and that is all that the Bank of Canada uses to assess the impact on inflation, not all of the other steps that increase the price.
"It’s a lazy method for the Bank of Canada and it’s lazier still for these economists to use that as their measurement when claiming to refute myths about the carbon tax.
"Yves Giroux, the parliamentary budget officer, looked at the full impact of the carbon tax — from what we all pay, the lower economic growth, the increase in prices, the increased amount of GST we pay — and arrived at a basic conclusion: Most of us are paying more. 'Once you factor in the rebate, but also the economic impacts, the majority of households will see a negative impact as a result of the carbon tax,' Giroux told a House of Commons committee last week.
"That’s not something these economists mention. Instead, they spend more time repeating government talking points and sounding like Liberal MPs than they do in providing evidence for their claims."
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