Primary Primers: How Libertarians could be the kingmakers of the 2020 presidential election | USAPP: - Olivier Lewis & Jeffrey Michels, London School of Economics US Centre:
November 15, 2019 - "Estimated to make up at least 10 percent of the population, libertarian-minded Americans have long posed an immense potential as swing voters.... Their political views – which are centred around the idea of personal autonomy – though now rather mainstream, have never fit cleanly in the programs of the two main parties.... But ... it is nearly impossible to speak of them as a bloc, most having been captured by a mainstream party and lacking their own through which to assert their public identity. But could this now be changing?
"Historically, the Republican Party (GOP) has monopolised the libertarian vote, mainly with its promise of fiscal conservatism. Amid growing aversion to post-war welfare programs championed by the Democratic Party, the GOP cobbled together an unlikely consensus uniting small-government libertarians with religious conservatives and foreign policy ‘hawks.’ This alliance seemed to offer libertarians more than going it alone with the Libertarian Party....,
"The libertarian alliance with conservatives weakened in the 2000s, with the Republican Party back in the White House.... In the 2006 midterms a significant number of libertarian voters allegedly voted for Democratic candidates.... But the rise of Barack Obama ... brought this dalliance with the Democratic Party to an end....
"[W]ithin the Republican Party ... Trump’s presidency is laying bare the Republican Party’s tenuous claim to represent libertarian values.... But with Democrats on the cusp of selecting a big-government candidate, libertarian voters are likely to keep their distance.....
"One option, of course, would be to vote for the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate. Indeed, the Libertarian Party has already been building momentum. In 2012, the party received more than 1 million votes for the first time. Four years later, with two former state governors on its ticket, the Libertarian Party obtained over 3 percent of the votes, the best result for a third-party contender in that election.
"For 2020, the Libertarian party is on its way to, once again, having its candidates on presidential ballots in every state, and holding a record number of presidential primaries.... Of course, the Libertarian Party candidate is unlikely to win... Some libertarians, however, sense a victory of a different type. Given how tight the last presidential race was, and that US voters increasingly identify as political independents (42 percent in 2017), the Libertarian Party could grow to become a swing party, acting as a gate-keeper to power....
"After decades of support, it will not be easy for even self-conscious libertarians to dislodge themselves from traditional party loyalties. This will be more difficult given the American media’s unwavering representation of party politics as having only two sides; though the Libertarian Party’s stance is far simpler than that of its larger competitors, it is hardly articulated in public discourse.... But for the elections to come, a change of tactic will likely be necessary – and it could prove consequential, if libertarians move as one."
Read more: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019/11/15/how-libertarians-could-be-the-kingmakers-of-the-2020-presidential-election/
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November 15, 2019 - "Estimated to make up at least 10 percent of the population, libertarian-minded Americans have long posed an immense potential as swing voters.... Their political views – which are centred around the idea of personal autonomy – though now rather mainstream, have never fit cleanly in the programs of the two main parties.... But ... it is nearly impossible to speak of them as a bloc, most having been captured by a mainstream party and lacking their own through which to assert their public identity. But could this now be changing?
"Historically, the Republican Party (GOP) has monopolised the libertarian vote, mainly with its promise of fiscal conservatism. Amid growing aversion to post-war welfare programs championed by the Democratic Party, the GOP cobbled together an unlikely consensus uniting small-government libertarians with religious conservatives and foreign policy ‘hawks.’ This alliance seemed to offer libertarians more than going it alone with the Libertarian Party....,
"The libertarian alliance with conservatives weakened in the 2000s, with the Republican Party back in the White House.... In the 2006 midterms a significant number of libertarian voters allegedly voted for Democratic candidates.... But the rise of Barack Obama ... brought this dalliance with the Democratic Party to an end....
"[W]ithin the Republican Party ... Trump’s presidency is laying bare the Republican Party’s tenuous claim to represent libertarian values.... But with Democrats on the cusp of selecting a big-government candidate, libertarian voters are likely to keep their distance.....
"One option, of course, would be to vote for the Libertarian Party’s presidential candidate. Indeed, the Libertarian Party has already been building momentum. In 2012, the party received more than 1 million votes for the first time. Four years later, with two former state governors on its ticket, the Libertarian Party obtained over 3 percent of the votes, the best result for a third-party contender in that election.
"For 2020, the Libertarian party is on its way to, once again, having its candidates on presidential ballots in every state, and holding a record number of presidential primaries.... Of course, the Libertarian Party candidate is unlikely to win... Some libertarians, however, sense a victory of a different type. Given how tight the last presidential race was, and that US voters increasingly identify as political independents (42 percent in 2017), the Libertarian Party could grow to become a swing party, acting as a gate-keeper to power....
"After decades of support, it will not be easy for even self-conscious libertarians to dislodge themselves from traditional party loyalties. This will be more difficult given the American media’s unwavering representation of party politics as having only two sides; though the Libertarian Party’s stance is far simpler than that of its larger competitors, it is hardly articulated in public discourse.... But for the elections to come, a change of tactic will likely be necessary – and it could prove consequential, if libertarians move as one."
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