Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Libertarian changes dynamic of NH Senate race

Math gets dicey for Scott Brown with Libertarian in the equation | Boston Herald - David Paleologos:

June 20, 2014 - "Something big changed between our March and June Suffolk University/Boston Herald polls for the New Hampshire Senate race: Libertarian Gardner Goldsmith is now on the ballot.

"'A small leak can sink a great ship,' Benjamin Franklin once said. In politics a campaign can’t afford to leak votes away to other candidates, but that’s what’s happening to former Bay State Sen. Scott Brown’s campaign.

"Recent public polls that showed the Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen race closer than her current 10-point lead in our poll did not list Goldsmith as a candidate. And if you don’t think third-party candidates mean anything in New Hampshire, think again....

"Goldsmith also got 4 percent of independents versus his 2 percent overall, which means the Libertarian is siphoning a greater share of independent voters away from Brown. Also, Goldsmith drew no registered Democrats, but 2 percent of registered Republicans, which comes off Brown’s tally, too.

"Part of winning is finding your slice of the pie while your opponents split the remainder. If you look at this three-way race as incumbent vs. challengers, the advantage goes to the Democrat because there are now two anti-Shaheen options. With the surge of women elected in the Granite State over the past few cycles, the gender advantage goes to Shaheen."

Read more: http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_politics/2014/06/paleologos_math_gets_dicey_for_scott_brown_with_libertarian_in
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