Dominic Cummings' flawed lockdown fundamentalism must be challenged | Daily Telegraph - Sherelle Jacobs:
May 24, 2021 - "To misquote the Lionel Shriver novel, we need to talk about Cummings. First came the almost adolescently vengeful Twitter rampage against No 10 over its early handling of Covid. Now the former aide allegedly aims to 'napalm' the Prime Minister when he gives evidence to the health and science select committee on Wednesday.... The more Mr Cummings briefs against his former boss, and pours social media scorn on lockdown-sceptic arguments, the more he comes across as a vindictive former employee, vainly obsessed with his reputation and appearing intellectual....
"Cummings’s criticisms lack power because they are already the consensus. This in itself is disturbing. To most of Westminster, along with swathes of the public, it is self-evident that we failed to lock down early enough. Old hat that the state’s early 'test and trace' surveillance plans and faith in the power of behavioural manipulation lacked ambition. Clear to the point of cliched that early interest in herd immunity was reckless and irresponsibl ....
"In this world view, the only question of importance is whether the Government should fall on its sword for these shameful errors or has redeemed itself with a world-beating jab rollout. The latter judgment still seems likely to prevail, despite Mr Cummings’s best efforts. Still, even if the former adviser is ancient history, his authoritarian take on lessons learned from the pandemic looks set to prevail, at least for now. It is very possible that in 18 months’ time, when the fallout of lockdowns is clear, Mr Cummings’s position will prove a lonely one. Yet in the short term, at least, he represents the political mainstream.
"This is problematic for two reasons. First, it is not clear that the Cummings consensus is borne out by the scientific evidence. Although the argument goes that 'hard' and 'fast' action, such as that taken by Taiwan, was the best way to stop people dying, it remains unclear whether lockdowns do more than buy time (and potentially push deaths into winter).... The Cummings argument that the tradeoff between lockdowns and the economy is a myth is also questionable. Despite attempts by lockdown advocates to 'settle the argument' by selective use of data, it is in truth too early to say if locking down hard and fast can save both lives and the economy....
"The Cummings consensus is not simply factually spurious but potentially dangerous. The establishment of 'fast, hard' lockdowns as the policy gold standard could spell stay-at-home orders every time there is a variant scare. So, too, the institutionalisation of fallible modellers as a new breed of philosopher kings, thanks to the precautionary principle. The unconditional acceptance of lockdowns – and with this the demolition of the individual’s right to freedom – also risks leading us into ethical quagmires from which there is no obvious escape.
"Society seems to have accepted that locking down those who might be a public health threat is a necessary measure. If, in line with legal norms encapsulated by the European Convention on Human Rights, society also deems it unacceptable to withold freedoms from those who are no longer a public health threat (ie the innoculated), then it follows that the development of a vaccine demands the division of society into two tiers of citizens – the vaccinated whose movements can’t be legitimately restricted, and the unvaccinated, whose activities can....
"Just as dangerous is the consensus crystallising that our politicians must ... learn from 'democracy-friendly' bio-surveillance in the likes of Taiwan. True, ... Beijing busily uploading the vaccine information of its citizens onto its dystopian social credit system WeChat is not the same as the proliferation in Taiwain of apps designed by tech firms to help people avoid Covid hotspots and track the local facemask shortages – something we could perhaps learn from. Nevertheless we need to be careful....
"Already, some of the influential Silicon Valley types whom Cummings so admires are publicly dabbling in arguments that democracy may be obsolete in the new era of big tech and the Straussian view that espionage is necessary to build a just society. Dominic Cummings may be an oddball in Westminster and a figure of fun among the public at large, but the bio-authoritarianism that he embodies should be taken seriously."
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