Backlash against the federal Liberal carbon tax fueled a landslide Progressive Conservative victory in a Nova Scotia seat the provincial Liberals have held for 20 years.
In a troubling sign for Trudeau’s Liberals, the Atlantic ‘red wall’ looks less sturdy | The Hub | Geoff Russ
August 10, 2023 - "In what could be a troubling sign for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, a byelection this week in Nova Scotia, fraught with debate about the carbon tax and the state of the Liberal brand, ended in a once-safe provincial Liberal seat being lost in a landslide.... The riding of Preston had been held by the Nova Scotia Liberals for the last 20 years, but the byelection saw their support collapse with the Liberal candidate placing third behind the Progressive Conservative [PC] winner and the NDP runner-up.
"The Progressive Conservatives heavily focused on criticizing what they described as the 'Liberal carbon tax,' which PC Premier Tim Houston has been vocally opposed to....
"There have increasingly been signs that Atlantic Canada, which was a stronghold for the Liberals in the 2015 election and has mostly stayed red since, is wavering. A recent poll by Abacus Data found the Liberals in the unenviable spot of lagging behind in all regions of the country, with the Conservatives leading in Atlantic Canada and the Bloc Québécois leading in Quebec.... And as ire on the east coast about the carbon tax mixes with general frustration about inflation and the cost of living, the Conservatives could see an opportunity to tear down the Liberal 'red wall' in the Atlantic provinces....
"David Tarrant lauds Twila Gross, the PC challenger in Preston, for a strong campaign but says external factors also helped turn Preston’s voters against the Liberals.... 'This summer for the first time, Nova Scotians felt the full vice of the Trudeau Liberal carbon tax, with immense pressure and pain to peoples’ cost of living, and the rather indifferent response from the federal government and the prime minister has massively damaged the Liberal brand in Nova Scotia.'
"A recent Nanos Research poll found 73 percent of Canadians surveyed in Atlantic Canada believe it is the wrong time to implement a carbon tax. Canada-wide, the poll found just 32 percent of Canadians surveyed believe carbon taxes are an effective way to reduce carbon emissions.
"Unlike the Ontario Liberals, who are operationally independent of the federal Liberals despite strong grassroots ties, the Nova Scotia Liberals are an official branch of the federal party.... Tarrant says Preston’s voters did not differentiate between the provincial and federal Liberal parties when it came to their frustrations about the carbon tax....
"Tarrant says the negative reaction to the federal carbon tax will be felt in all parts of Canada, with the exceptions of B.C. and Quebec which implemented their own provincial carbon taxes years ago. 'In every other part of the country, ... the number one drag on the LPC right now is the carbon tax,' says Tarrant. 'It’s gonna cost them seats… [I]f I’m a provincial Liberal, one of my big strategic dilemmas is how do I separate myself from the national party?'"
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