Just before Christmas, the Trudeau government announced regulations that would phase out the sale of new gasoline-powered automobiles in Canada, and ban their sale completely by 2035.
Federal Government EV Mandates Destined to Fail | EnergyNow.ca | Fraser Institute:
December 20, 2023 - "The Trudeau government [has] unveiled regulations meant to phaseout the sale of new internal combustion vehicles and compel Canadians to buy zero-emission vehicles..... [A]ccording to the Trudeau government’s new regulations, all new passenger vehicles and light trucks sold in Canada must be electric zero-emission vehicles [EVs] by 2035, with interim targets of 20 per cent by 2026 and 60 per cent by 2030....
"And yet, despite multibillion-dollar subsidies and governmental efforts to promote EV adoption, consumers are not embracing them. In Canada, only 6.5 per cent (98,589) of the 1.5 million new vehicles sold in 2022 were electric, according to Statistics Canada. Achieving the Trudeau government’s 2026 target would require a rapid increase in EV sales to more than 300,000 in coming years and more than 900,000 in 2030 (assuming no change in total vehicle sales). Such rapid growth in a short timeframe is at best questionable....
"But even in the unlikely scenario of sudden shift in consumer preferences, production-side barriers loom large.... According to a recent study, to meet international EV adoption mandates (including mandates in Canada and the U.S.) by 2030 the world would need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines, 17 new cobalt mines, 50 new mines for cathode production, 40 new mines for anode materials, 90 new mines for battery cells, and 81 new mines for EV bodies and motors, for a total of 388 new mines worldwide. For context, in 2021 there were only 340 metal mines operating in Canada and the U.S.
"And historically, the development of mining and refining facilities has been slow. Production timelines range from six to nine years for lithium and 13 to 18 years for nickel—two elements critical for EV batteries. The aggressive government timelines for EV adoption clash with historically sluggish metal and mineral production, raising the risk of EV manufacturers falling short of needed minerals.... Simply put, it’s not at all clear that sufficient capacities will be available to produce enough EVs to achieve the mandates being imposed on Canadians and Americans, nor is it clear consumers in either country are willing to spend their own money to purchase them."
Read more: https://energynow.ca/2023/12/federal-government-ev-mandates-destined-to-fail-fraser-institute/
New cars sold in Canada must be zero-emission by 2035, Trudeau government announces | FULL | Global News | December 18, 2023:
Motor Mouth: The consequences of Canada's EV mandate | Driving ] David Booth:
December 18, 2023 - "It’s now official. We have, as a nation, joined those other countries banning the sale of internal-combustion-engine-powered light-duty vehicles past the year 2035.... Discussion is over, the plans now firm, and the political party in charge, more desperate for wins that any time in their eight-year reign, are firmly committed to its implementation. In other words, automakers’ sales targets for battery-powered vehicles — some 20 per cent of all new cars sold in 2026, 60 per cent by 2030, and the full 100 per cent in 2035 — have been mandated, and now all that’s left to do is deal with the consequences....
"A lot of things have to go right for Canada to achieve 100-per-cent ZEV sales nationwide by 2035. Pierre Poilievre can't get elected. Battery prices need to decrease. The roll-out of charging stations needs to be ramped up. The federal government will have to maintain its subsidies much longer than originally proposed. Failure of any of the above could render these best of intentions wasted. Throw in the fact that it takes as much as five to 10 years for a mine to come on-stream in Canada, and the precipitous drop in pricing EV proponents have been promising seems remote indeed.... In fact, the idea that a fully functional EV — as in, one with sufficient range to serve as a middle-class family’s only mode of transportation — will be anywhere near CDN$30,000 without subsidies in the next five years seems laughable. A ... 400-km-plus-(real-)highway-range four-door five-passenger EV for 30 large? With no government cash in the trunk? No one in North America — or Europe — can build that car.
"But the Chinese can. In fact, they’re already doing it, and, thanks to a cost-of-manufacturing advantage that some corporate European CEOs put at as much as 15,000 euros, they are ravaging the E.U. market as we speak. Many other markets as well.... [W]ith the mandate’s rapid progression — that 60-per-cent-of-new-cars-be-EVs-by-2030 rule – it might become viable for BYD, NIO, and the like to establish a beachhead here..., And when — okay, if — they come, there’s precious little chance our native auto industry can counterattack....
"By [2030], 60 per cent of all cars an automaker sells throughout our entire country will have to be BEVs. That would mean that if you sell, say, 60,000 electrics nationwide, you’d be allowed to sell 40,000 non-ZEV ICEs. For many of the larger automakers in Canada, that would be a bad year....[O]ur American cousins ... could flood our market with new (actually slightly used) ICEs to make up for the shortfall. Back in 2009, when our dollar was at par ... five per cent of the new cars sold in Canada came from south of the border. With even more money to be made and a captive audience facing a shortage of cars they’re no longer allowed to buy through Canadian dealers, it could be many more."
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