Social media has embraced Mark Carney for Liberal leader (and Prime Minister of Canada) with a fervor that recalls the boomlet for Kamala Harris last summer. But his victory is by no means assured.
by George J. Dance
"May you live in interesting times," goes the ancient Chinese curse. Canadian politics has certainly got a lot more interesting this month.
Mark Carney at World Economic Forum, Davos, 2010.
Ten days ago I made a prediction that Trudeau would exploit the threat of Trump tariffs to stay on as Liberal leader and prime minister. In my opinion Trudeau is far too much the narcissist to voluntarily give up power. As well, I believed leadership candidate Mark Carney's claims that he was an "outsider" to the federal government, and thought the Liberal insiders would close ranks to stop him.
However ,while it is still way too early to say, and I am for now sticking with it, that part of my prediction appears to be wrong. It looks like Carney's path to the Prime Minister's office will be much easier than I had thought.
How did I go wrong? For one thing, I thought that Carney and Trudeau would be rivals, if not enemies. It turns out, though, that Carney has been on Team Trudeau for some time, serving as Justin's Special Adviser and Chair of the Liberal Task Force on Economic Growth since last September. I still find it inconceivable that Trudeau voluntarily give up power, but it is possible that he is being forced out, due to his abysmal polling numbers and/or pressure from Carney's colleagues in the United Nations (where Carney is Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance) or the World Economic Forum (where he is an Agenda Contributor and a Foundation Board member).
Social media has embraced Carney with a fervor that recalls the boomlet for Kamala Harris last summer. But his coronation is not a sure thing. For one thing, he has not even been officially approved as a candidate yet - no one has. Until the party announces an official list, there is no way of knowing even who will be on the ballot.
The other announced candidates so far are all Members of Parliament (MPs): two of Trudeau's cabinet ministers and an assortment of his backbenchers. With Carney the perceived front runner, it is easy to imagine these MPs forming an ABC (anyone but Carney) alliance and depriving him of the win, just like what happened to Michael Ignatieff in his first run for the Liberal leadership. While Ignatieff did eventually win the leadership, his political fortunes never recovered after that loss; as leader, he was unable to unite the party, and he ended up leading the Liberals to a third-place finish in the next election.
There is also the complication that, while the Liberals are charging the candidates $350,000 each to run, they are making party membership free. Until January 23, anyone can sign up and vote on the next Prime Minister; if I remember correctly, you don't even have to be a citizen. That seems like a play for a high number of votes, but it also looks like a call for every crank and right-wing troll to join the party. In such a milieu, who knows who will eventually emerge as the winner?
There is even an outside chance that the race does not end with a clear winner, and has to be rescheduled. If so, that brings me back to my original scenario, with Justin Trudeau leading the party in one final campaign.
We will just have to wait and see. I for one intend to keep a close eye on the Liberal race.
We indeed live in interesting times.
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