Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths | The Telegraph - Sarah Newey:
May 13, 2020 - "The risk of children dying from malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea in developing countries is spiralling due to the pandemic and 'far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus', Unicef has warned.... Stefan Peterson, chief of health at Unicef, cautioned that the blanket lockdowns imposed in many low and middle income [countries] are not an effective way to control Covid-19 and could have deadly repercussions.
"'Indiscriminate lockdown measures do not have an optimal effect on the virus,' he told The Telegraph. 'If you’re asking families to stay at home in one room in a slum, without food or water, that won’t limit virus transmission.... I’m concerned that lockdown measures have been copied between countries for lack of knowing what to do, rarely with any contextualisation for the local situation,' he said....
"According to a stark report published in Lancet Global Health journal on Wednesday, almost 1.2 million children could die in the next six months due to the disruption to health services and food supplies caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The modelling, by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Unicef, found that child mortality rates could rise by as much as 45 per cent ... while maternal deaths could increase by almost 39 per cent.
"Dr Peterson said these figures were in part a reflection of stringent restrictions in much of the world that prevent people leaving their homes without documentation, preventing them from accessing essential health care services.... Dr Peterson warned that these trends have resulted in a reduction in the 'effective utilisation of services' - a shift which, in some places, could be more dangerous than the virus itself. And lockdowns have a heavy economic toll, which could trigger a rise in poverty and malnutrition.
"The research looks at the consequences of disruption in 118 low and middle income countries, based on three scenarios. Even in the most optimistic case, where access to health services dropped by 15 per cent and child wasting rose by 10 per cent, an additional 253,500 children and 12,200 mothers died. But a worst-case scenario, where services are reduced by 45 per cent and the proportion of children who are wasting grows by 50 per cent, could result in 1.16 million additional child fatalities and 57,000 maternal deaths in just six months.
"The modelling projected that India would see ... the largest number of additional deaths in children under five and [in] maternal mortality, followed by Nigeria. Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Indonesia are also likely to be hit hard.
"Such a situation has some precedent - research has shown that in 2014, during the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, more people died from indirect effects than the disease itself. But the scale of the pandemic means the consequences will be far greater....
"Dr Peterson urged countries not to impose draconian lockdowns, but to focus on identifying hotspots so that regional restrictions less damaging for public health can be introduced. He said he was concerned that the current battle against Covid-19 was turning into a 'child’s rights crisis' and robbing a generation of their health, education and economic prospects."
Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/
May 13, 2020 - "The risk of children dying from malaria, pneumonia or diarrhoea in developing countries is spiralling due to the pandemic and 'far outweighs any threat presented by the coronavirus', Unicef has warned.... Stefan Peterson, chief of health at Unicef, cautioned that the blanket lockdowns imposed in many low and middle income [countries] are not an effective way to control Covid-19 and could have deadly repercussions.
"'Indiscriminate lockdown measures do not have an optimal effect on the virus,' he told The Telegraph. 'If you’re asking families to stay at home in one room in a slum, without food or water, that won’t limit virus transmission.... I’m concerned that lockdown measures have been copied between countries for lack of knowing what to do, rarely with any contextualisation for the local situation,' he said....
"According to a stark report published in Lancet Global Health journal on Wednesday, almost 1.2 million children could die in the next six months due to the disruption to health services and food supplies caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The modelling, by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Unicef, found that child mortality rates could rise by as much as 45 per cent ... while maternal deaths could increase by almost 39 per cent.
"Dr Peterson said these figures were in part a reflection of stringent restrictions in much of the world that prevent people leaving their homes without documentation, preventing them from accessing essential health care services.... Dr Peterson warned that these trends have resulted in a reduction in the 'effective utilisation of services' - a shift which, in some places, could be more dangerous than the virus itself. And lockdowns have a heavy economic toll, which could trigger a rise in poverty and malnutrition.
"The research looks at the consequences of disruption in 118 low and middle income countries, based on three scenarios. Even in the most optimistic case, where access to health services dropped by 15 per cent and child wasting rose by 10 per cent, an additional 253,500 children and 12,200 mothers died. But a worst-case scenario, where services are reduced by 45 per cent and the proportion of children who are wasting grows by 50 per cent, could result in 1.16 million additional child fatalities and 57,000 maternal deaths in just six months.
"The modelling projected that India would see ... the largest number of additional deaths in children under five and [in] maternal mortality, followed by Nigeria. Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania and Indonesia are also likely to be hit hard.
"Such a situation has some precedent - research has shown that in 2014, during the Ebola outbreak in west Africa, more people died from indirect effects than the disease itself. But the scale of the pandemic means the consequences will be far greater....
"Dr Peterson urged countries not to impose draconian lockdowns, but to focus on identifying hotspots so that regional restrictions less damaging for public health can be introduced. He said he was concerned that the current battle against Covid-19 was turning into a 'child’s rights crisis' and robbing a generation of their health, education and economic prospects."
Read more: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/unicef-warns-lockdown-could-kill-covid-19-model-predicts-12/
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