COVID-19 deaths drop steeply in Manaus, Brazil

Has this Brazilian city reached herd immunity without lockdown? | The Spectator USA - Ross Clark:

August 26, 2020 - "Throughout the Covid crisis, the international response to the disease has rested on a simple assumption: that none of us have any resistance to it, being caused by a novel virus. Therefore, if allowed to let rip through the population, the virus would exponentially spread until around 60 – 70 per cent of us had been infected and herd immunity was reached. This was the assumption behind Neil Ferguson’s paper in March,* claiming that Covid-19 would kill 500,000 Britons if nothing was done and 250,000 of us if the government carried on with the limited mitigation polices it was then following. 

"Yet real world data has challenged this assumption. First came the accidental human experiment of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, where in January the disease spread unnoticed among 3,711 passengers and crew in the closed environment of a ship. But when all those people were tested for the disease, only 19 per cent turned out to have been infected. Similarly, as reported in the Spectator in March, a study of 1,286 people in the southern Chinese city of Shenzen revealed that only 14.9 per cent of people who shared an apartment with someone later found to be suffering from Covid-19, had picked up the infection themselves.

"In New York City, a runaway epidemic seems to have left after antibody tests on a sample of the population revealed 21 per cent of the population had been infected. In London, the epidemic appears to have retreated after 17 per cent were infected.

"There is now another piece of powerful evidence.... The Amazonian city of Manaus has witnessed a remarkable retreat in what had seemingly been an uncontrolled epidemic among its 2 million population. Excess deaths, which had been running at 120 a day in May, have dropped away to virtually nothing, allowing the city’s emergency field hospital to be closed. Interestingly, the retreat of the virus occurred once 20 per cent of the population appeared to have been infected.

Source: Amazonas Health Surveillance Foundation - Washington Post

"In the case of London and New York, there was the complication of lockdown – could infection levels have been frozen around the 20 per cent level thanks to our restrictions, rather than as a result of any natural resistance? But in the case of Manaus, there are no such complications: no lockdown restrictions were ever imposed.... The virus staged a similar retreat in the Ecuadorean city of Guayaquil, although the proportion infected there is notably higher, at 33 per cent....

"As reported here in May, but not widely covered elsewhere, a team led by Gabriella Gomes of Strathclyde University and the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine has produced its own model, taking into account that humans have widely different patterns of social interaction. Once a virus has infected those with a high level of social interaction, it finds it much more difficult to spread. As a result, according to Gomes’s model, the per cent of the population that needs to be infected before effective herd immunity is reached drops from 60 per cent to between 10 and [35] per cent....

"Yet the approach of governments towards Covid-19 – including that of our own – appears to be trapped by modelling based on the assumption of universal susceptibility and a herd immunity threshold of 60 per cent. Perhaps it is time the government seeks advice from a wider range of sources and begin[s] looking at real world evidence, rather than just models....

"Manaus does not provide a great advert for doing nothing at all to combat the spread of Covid-19. Before the city reached an apparent infection rate of 20 per cent, hospitals had been overwhelmed and it had recorded Covid-19 deaths of over 3,300 people – one in 600 of the population. Nevertheless, its experience falls a long way short of the projections made by Ferguson, whose worst-case scenario would have seen 1 in 130 Britons die."

Read more: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/has-a-brazilian-city-reached-herd-immunity-without-lockdown-

* Prof. Ferguson estimated that the coronavirus had an initial reproduction rate of 2.4, which implies a herd immunity threshhold of 58.33% of the population. However, he predicted an infection ratio of over  80% by July, meaning he either rejected or omitted the concept of a herd immunity threshhold, or miscalculated the percentage. - gd 

Comparing Covid19 Deaths in America & Sweden

by George J. Dance

Today's question: Which country has suffered the most deaths per capita from or with COVID-19 up to now? Is it the United States, which despite mostly locking down at the state level has had over 150,000 deaths? Brazil, which did the same, but has 90,000 dead in a smaller population? The United Kingdom, which locked down nationally but suffered 45,000 deaths in an even smaller population? Or Sweden, which never locked down at all?

The answer is None of the Above. According to Worldometer's world coronavirus dashboard, the U.S. has suffered the most deaths, but in a population of 330 million that comes to just 467 deaths per million (467/M) only 10th highest. Brazil's per capita rate is even lower; it had only 425/M deaths, bad enough only for 12th place. The UK was hit rather hard, suffering 677/M deaths; but that was only bad enough for third highest.

No, the COVID death capital of the world – the country with far and away the most deaths per capita – is San Marino. San Marino, a microstate in (and completely surrounded by) northern Italy, has no active cases of the virus. It reported 699 cases in the spring, from which 652 people recovered, and 42 died. However, San Marino's population is just 33,000 – meaning that the country suffered a whopping 1,238/M deaths.

Just behind the UK, with the fourth highest death rate per capita, is Andorra, another  microstate on the France / Spain border. Andorra has had 922 cases and 52 deaths. However, given Andorra's population of just 77,000, that equals 673/M deaths.

Another European microstate, Lichtenstein, reported only one death; but that one death equals a per capita rate of 26/M deaths. In contrast, India (where more than 36,000 people have died to date from COVID-19) also has a death rate of 26/M.

There is a reason to report deaths per capita. Giving only raw numbers can exaggerate death tolls in larger countries – can can make them seem worse than they are – and giving per-capita deaths as well is a way to correct for that bias. However, as I hope my examples show, reporting only deaths per capita – counting Lichtenstein's one death as equal to India's 36,000 – similarly exaggerates the death toll for smaller countries.

I was reminded of that this month, in the context of the ongoing online debate over Sweden. That country, as I am sure all know by now, never locked down, something lockdown advocates predicted would lead to mass death; ever since, many of them have been trying to prove that mass death has, in fact, occurred there. In May that took the form of misleading assertions that Sweden had "the highest number of deaths per capita in Europe;" in June, that the country had "the fifth highest death rate per capita in the world." Since both statistics were debunked, the comparison with America has risen to take their place. Some recent examples:

• "Since the deniers held Sweden up as an example, deaths exploded to 137% of US per capita deaths. They are now fifth in the world with COVID-19 deaths dwarfing those in the US with 512 deaths per million." (Eureporter, June 30) 
• "Yet, the Swedish death rate is unnerving. Sweden has a death toll greater than the United States: 564 deaths per million inhabitants compared with 444, as of July 27." (U.S. New & World Report, July 27) 
• "[Sweden] ranks eighth among countries with the highest number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 people. It outranks the U.S. and Brazil, which are the world's first and second worst-hit nations in terms of total cases, according to Johns Hopkins University." (Newsweek, July 30) 

Does Sweden have more or less deaths than the United States? If one looks at total deaths, the U.S. clearly has more, over 25 times more. But if one instead looks only at deaths per capita, Sweden appears to be doing much worse. For a fairer comparison, one should give both totals; which, to its credit, one source of the 'per capita' statistic was fair-minded enough to do:

More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States. (New York Times, July 15)

As of today Sweden has experienced 5,739 deaths, or 568/M. The U.S. 7-day average of COVID-19 deaths is currently, 1,058 per day. The United States has suffered more deaths from COVID-19 in the last 6 days than Sweden has during the entire pandemic. Yet reporting only the per-capita figures, without context, gives a misleading impression that the much smaller country – Sweden – is doing worse. Which is all that the comparison does, and all that it is designed to do.

There is a second way that reporting only national per capita deaths exaggerates the death toll in smaller countries over larger. The smaller the country, the greater the chance that everyone in it gets infected in a short time. (That is the sad fate that befell San Marino.) However, in a larger country like the United States or Brazil, the virus must take a longer time to spread through it; meaning that there will be regions of the country where it has never showed up, parts where it has passed, and parts where it is still raging. A national death figure will be an average of all three types of region, understating the actual death toll in the areas affected.

As an example, Canada has a seemingly lower death toll of 8,929 or 236/M. However, giving only that figure hides the real impact of the virus on one province, Quebec, which suffered 5,673 deaths or 667/M: almost as many deaths as Sweden, and more deaths per capita.

Similarly, according to Worldometer's U.S. coronavirus page, six American states have more deaths, and more deaths per capita, than Sweden:
New Jersey – 15,888 – 1,789/M
New York – 32,754 – 1,684/M
Massachusetts – 8,595 – 1,247/M
Michigan – 6,443 – 645/M
Illinois – 7,670 – 605/M
Pennsylvania – 7,289 – 569/M

Another three states have more deaths, but not more deaths per capita, than Sweden:
California – 9,003 – 228/M
Texas – 6,703 – 231/M
Florida – 6,587 – 307/M

A further six states have more deaths per capita, but less deaths, than Sweden:
Connecticut – 4,431 – 1,243/M
Rhode Island – 1,007 – 951/M
Louisiana – 3,929 – 845/M
Delaware – 581 – 597/M
Maryland – 3,488 – 577/M
Mississippi - 2,693 - 569/M

Did someone mention Brazil? According to the New York Times, three Brazilian states also have more deaths, and more deaths per capita, than Sweden:
Rio de Janeiro – 13,198 – 770/M
Ceará – 7,643 – 840/M
Pernambuco – 6,484 – 680/M

I hope these statistics put Sweden's death toll – 5,739 deaths, or 568/M – into proper perspective. Unfortunately, I do not expect them to end the online debate. Fortunately, though, I expect the debate to end soon anyway.

As the American death toll continues to rise, it becomes increasingly obvious that the state lockdowns did not stop the disease, but merely slowed it down, and that they have not prevented deaths so much as merely postponed them. With America adding more deaths per week than Sweden experienced in total, it is only a matter of time – a month, if the current death rate holds – before U.S. deaths per capita exceed those of Sweden. At which time, the per capita comparison will no longer be to Sweden's disadvantage, and I expect lockdown lovers to quickly and quietly drop it. 

Facebook shuts down Brazil Libertarians' pages

Brazil: Facebook Censors Pages and Profiles of Libertarian Political Party - David Unsworth, Pan-Am Post:

July 27, 2018 - "As presidential elections loom in Brazil, Facebook has closed multiple political pages, ... with undue scrutiny being placed on the libertarian Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL) party.

"Through a statement, on Wednesday, July 25, Facebook closed '196 pages and 87 profiles in Brazil that violated our authenticity policies'....  Facebook alleged an alleged 'rigorous investigation” by which it justified intervening in the freedom of expression and access to information of countless Brazilians....

"Most of them were part of the Movimento Brasil Livre network, which the mass media has deemed 'extreme right', despite being supporters of the legalization of drugs and civil unions for people of the same sex. The party’s national coordinator, Fernando Holiday, is black and gay.... Holiday leads the party along side, Kim Kataguiri, grandson of Japanese immigrants and pre-candidate for federal deputy, whose actions and protests were key to achieving the impeachment of ex-president Dilma Roussef. Currently MBL is protesting outside the offices of Facebook in Sao Paulo....

"In the words of Ricardo Almeida, MBL coordinator, in the state of Bahia.... 'Of course it is false that we spread fake news.... First, in general, the news shared by sites linked to the MBL are also disseminated by other means. Second, the indictment does not include any evidence of the alleged false news. Third, an expressive part of the content is opinion and analysis, not news. And fourth, several personal profiles were also shut down, which were not false accounts....

"'We have evidence that Facebook has anti-right-wing orientation. And not exclusively in Brazil, but in other countries such as the United States.... Facebook is using its discretion in order to reduce the influence of right-wing parties, especially of the MBL, in the presidential election....

"'Facebook, although it is a private company, has contractual obligations and its policy is intended to be transparent... Zuckerberg himself was very clear when he was testifying before the US Senate to say that Facebook is a politically neutral forum.... If people go on Facebook to use it as a tool to disseminate ideas, and then Facebook makes it impossible to do that, the minimum that can be determined is that a breach of contract has been committed.'"

Read more: https://panampost.com/david-unsworth/2018/07/27/brazil-facebook-censors-pages-and-profiles-of-libertarian-political-party/?cn-reloaded=1
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Atlas Network spreads liberty in Latin America

Sphere of Influence: How American Libertarians Are Remaking Latin American Politics - Lee Fang, The Intercept:

August 9, 2017 - "Alejandro Chafuen ... was among friends at the 2017 Latin America Liberty Forum. The international meeting of libertarian activists was sponsored by the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, a leadership-training nonprofit now known simply as the Atlas Network, which Chafuen has led since 1991....

"Chafuen pointed to numerous Atlas-affiliated leaders now in the spotlight: ministers in the new conservative government in Argentina, senators in Bolivia, and the leaders of the Free Brazil Movement that took down Dilma Rousseff’s presidency, where Chafuen’s network sprang to life before his very eyes.... A rightward shift is afoot in Latin American politics [and] the Atlas Network seems ever-present, a common thread nudging political developments along......

"[T]he Atlas Network, which receives funding from Koch foundations, has recreated methods honed in the Western world for developing countries. The network is expansive, currently boasting loose partnerships with 450 think tanks around the world. Atlas says it dispensed over $5 million to its partners in 2016 alone.

"Over the years, Atlas and its affiliated charitable foundations have provided hundreds of grants to conservative and free-market think tanks in Latin America, including the libertarian network that supported the Free Brazil Movement and organizations behind a libertarian push in Argentina, including Fundación Pensar, the Atlas think tank that merged with the political party formed by Mauricio Macri, a businessman who now leads the country. The leaders of the Free Brazil Movement and the founder of Fundación Eléutera in Honduras, an influential post-coup neoliberal think tank, have received financial support from Atlas, and are among the next generation of political operatives that have gone through Atlas’s training seminars.

"The Atlas Network spans dozens of other think tanks across the region.... It gives grants for new think tanks, provides courses on political management and public relations, sponsors networking events around the world, and, in recent years, has devoted special resources to prodding libertarians to influence public opinion through social media and online videos. An annual competition encourages Atlas’s network to produce viral YouTube videos promoting laissez-faire ideas and ridiculing proponents of the welfare state....

"Chafuen intimated that there was more to come: more think tanks, more efforts to overturn leftist governments, and more Atlas devotees and alumni elevated to the highest levels of government the world over. 'The work is ongoing,' he said."

Read more: https://theintercept.com/2017/08/09/atlas-network-alejandro-chafuen-libertarian-think-tank-latin-america-brazil/
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Social Liberty Party goes libertarian in Brazil

Brazil's Rand Paul: Can Libertarianism Fix Crime and Corruption? | Rising Stars | OZY - Anna Jean Kaiser, Daily Dose:

June 28, 2017 - "Fabio Ostermann ... 32, is a key player in Brazil’s growing libertarian movement, which has risen against a backdrop of the country’s collapsing left. He’s led youth groups on college campuses, co-organized some of the country’s largest-ever protests — which may have helped impeach the country’s leftist president, Dilma Rousseff. Now, he’s the president of the Social Liberty Party in his home state, which he is reforming to defend classical libertarian ideals.

"He ran and lost for mayor of his hometown of Porto Alegre, but now has his eye on a lower house seat in 2018 — and on launching a larger campaign in next year’s presidential and congressional elections to occupy the political vacuum created by the left’s disintegration with a rebranded, youthful, American-influenced libertarianism. Ostermann’s brand of libertarianism calls for widespread privatizations, deregulation of the economy and open trade markets. He’s pro marijuana legalization and favors gay marriage....

"Ostermann was trained by the United States’ most influential libertarian organizations — the Cato Institute, the Atlas Network and the Charles Koch Foundation.... He took a course on libertarian theory with Cato and earned a Koch summer fellowship to work at the Atlas Network. Newly evangelized, Ostermann returned to Brazil in 2009, where he co-founded Estudantes pela Liberdade — the Brazilian chapter of Students for Liberty, another U.S.-based libertarian group....

"From that came the Free Brazil Movement. They started rallying hard to impeach Rousseff. On March 15, 2015, Free Brazil and other organizations mobilized 3 million people to protest in 229 cities across the country — the largest protest since the fall of the military dictatorship in 1985....

"If elected, Ostermann’s first policy order of business would be the mass privatization of Brazil’s $70 billion-plus social safety net. He supports voucher systems for private schools and health care. 'I don’t think the government has the competence or capacity to manage these services in a country as chaotic as Brazil,' he says, though he’s happy to let the government spend on sanitation, security and 'basic infrastructure.' (That doesn’t include soccer stadiums, he adds, in sardonic reference to some $25 billion spent on the World Cup and the Olympics in 2014 and 2016 — though that number is frequently contested in Brazil.)

"When talking marijuana legalization, he situates his pro stance in response to Brazil’s bloody drug landscape, where drug crime causes near-constant violence in urban centers. In 2015, Brazil had more than 56,000 homicides, landing it the world’s highest murder rate in terms of absolute numbers, which in large part is due to drug-related crimes. In turn, Brazil also has the world’s fourth-largest prison population. 'To leave drug traffickers and cartels to have a monopoly over marijuana is a crime against society and an ineffective way to spend taxpayer money,' he says.

"Ostermann defends this latter stance despite the fact that it may have lost him his race last year. It’s his obsession with ideological purity that might keep him and his party from finding success."

Read more: http://www.ozy.com/rising-stars/brazils-rand-paul-can-libertarianism-fix-crime-and-corruption/77161
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Brazilian libertarians help impeach president (video)

How Brazil’s Libertarian Movement Helped Bring Down a President - Reason.com - Jim Epstein:

August 3, 2016 - "A group of libertarian activists and filmmakers known as the Free Brazil Movement (Movimento Brasil Livre) were instrumental in the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, a left-wing populist accused of fiscal impropriety. The group used its massive Facebook presence to help organize a series of pro-impeachment protests. Millions of protesters flooded the streets of Sao Paulo and other cities....

"Students for Liberty, an international organization that brings together libertarians on campus, has a presence in 107 countries including the U.S. But based on the count of local coordinators who've signed up with the group, the Brazilian chapter (Estudantes Pela Liberdade) is bigger than Students for Liberty in every other country combined....

"Can these young activists help remake Brazil's dysfunctional government (on display this week as the Olympic games kick off in Rio)? Reason TV traveled to Brazil for a look at the country's surging libertarian movement."

Read more: http://reason.com/reasontv/2016/08/03/how-brazils-libertarian-movement-helped
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Latin Americans embracing economic freedom

The Libertarian Moment Is Unfolding in Latin America, Not the US - Nelson Albino, Jr., Pan Am Post:

April 4, 2016 - "Over the last few years, the so-called libertarian moment has been given much to talk in the United States — especially after the rise of former Congressman Ron Paul in the 2008 and 2012 elections. His message reached the masses and generated great expectations ... but Donald Trump changed everything.... Trump’s arrival did so much damage to the Republican libertarian movement that Reason Magazine and Cato Institute held a series of debates on whether the libertarian moment was 'dead.'

"Regardless of its downfall or not in the United States, it is certainly alive and well in Latin America.... Latin Americans have grown tired of years of populism and socialism and have begun to demand changes in their respective countries.

"Argentina is the best example right now. The victory of Mauricio Macri in last year’s presidential elections ends years of leftist government.... The new president wasted no time and immediately started implementing pro-market measures, reducing taxes, eliminating currency controls, naming a new president for the Central Bank and negotiating foreign debt payments....

"Last December and for the first time in 17 years, on the election with higher voter turnout, Venezuelans chose an opposition-controlled National Assembly, removing the Socialist Party control of the legislative branch.... The Chavistas still control the executive and judicial branches, but this year Venezuelan opposition will activate constitutional mechanisms to exit President Maduro, ending 17 years of socialist tyranny....

"Millions of angry Brazilians have taken to the streets in recent months demanding the resignation of President Dilma Rousseff.... Brazil’s main topic is the scandal at the state oil company Petrobras, which involves President Rousseff and her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Both Rousseff and Lula da Silva are part of the socialist bloc that has ruled in South America for the past decade-and-a-half.

"Another example is Bolivia, where President Evo Morales, who has spent 10 years running the country, ... was defeated in a referendum where the Bolivian people did not approve of Morales running for a fourth presidential term, forcing him to end his mandate as soon as it expires in 2020.

"Though reforms are still at an early stage, the fact that pro-market ideas and economic liberalism are starting to be seen as real, strong crisis alternatives, both economically and socially, is a big step — especially when historically solvent countries like the United States continue to debate whether they should tilt to the left."

Read more: https://panampost.com/nelson-albino/2016/04/04/libertarian-moment-latin-america-us/
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Brazil Supreme Court talks drug decriminalization

Brazilian Supreme Court Seriously Considering Decriminalizing Weed, All Illegal Drugs - Cedar Attanasio, Latin Times:

September 11, 2015 - "Do Brazilian citizens have the right to consume drugs? That’s the question being considered by the Brazil's highest court in a case that has challenged the constitutionality of laws punishing drug consumption.... In 2009, a man who was already in prison on a petty crime and an illegal firearms conviction was caught with a small quantity of marijuana, convicted and punished with an additional sentence....

"Arguments for the decriminalization of all drugs, not just marijuana were spearheaded this week by two of the 11 judges on the bench. In signaling his vote, judge Luís Roberto Barroso compared criminalization of personal drug use to a dictatorship. 'The state has every right to combat the use [of drugs], to mount media campaigns, to create warnings, but to punish [drug use] with imprisonment is a form of authoritarianism that prevents the individual from making individual choices,' Barroso said....

"If adopted as a majority opinion, Barroso’s ruling would decriminalize possession for personal use of marijuana, cocaine, heroin and other drugs. The government would still be allowed to punish possession related to drug trafficking.

"Barroso cited other countries that have experimented [with] the legalization of marijuana and other drugs in recent years, according to RedeBrazil. He explicitly cited the U.S., a leader in the global war on drugs that has not interfered with state-level efforts to legalize pot, as well as Brazil’s neighbor Uruguay and it’s colonial mother country Portugal -- where heroin use fell 50 percent after drugs were decriminalized.

"Judge Luiz Edson Fachin joined Barroso, voting to overturn the marijuana conviction. While he acknowledged the dangers of illegal drugs, Fachin argued that drug users were victims, not crimminals. 'Those dependant on drugs are victims and not the seed of the crime [and] should be received as sick people,' Fachin said, according to G1.

"Fachin also pointed out that the country’s existing attempts at prohibition had failed. 'To insist in a public policy that has not worked for so many decades is to close one’s eyes to reality,' he said....

"On Thursday, the judges decided to table their final verdict, citing the need for further discussion of how to define 'personal use.' Some have proposed specific quantities -- 25 grams of marijuana and 6 plants, for example -- while [others] argue that the legislature should determine what quantities."

Read more: http://www.latintimes.com/brazilian-supreme-court-seriously-considering-decriminalizing-weed-all-illegal-drugs-339385
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The teenager behind the Free Brazil Movement

Teen libertarian is face of Brazil's young free-market right - Yahoo News - Adriana Gomez Licon:

March 30, 2015 - "Microphone in hand and standing atop the sound truck, the raspy-voiced protest leader jabbed his finger into the air shouting for the ouster of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, igniting wild cheers from the crowd below him.

"'What Lula and Dilma have done shouldn't just result in their being banned from politics. It should result in them being in jail!' Kim Kataguiri yelled, denouncing Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

"The March 15 demonstration was the largest Sao Paulo had seen in more than three decades...  But more surprising than the crowd of more than 200,000, according to the Datafolha polling and statistics agency, was the fact it was being led by Kataguiri, a skinny, 19-year-old college dropout, and other young Brazilian activists inspired by libertarianism and conservative free-market ideals.

"The grandson of Japanese immigrants, Kataguiri is a social media star whose quirky videos skewer Rousseff and the ruling party's social welfare policies.... Today, he is the public face of the Free Brazil Movement, a ... right-leaning movement clearly channeled against Rousseff and her Workers' Party....

"Kataguiri says he had a political awakening two years ago.... He began posting satiric videos to YouTube, which gained a following. He joined two digital media collectives and produced more clips. Along the way, Kataguiri read the works of free-market economists Milton Friedman and Ludwig Von Mises....

"Today, Kataguiri and the Free Brazil Movement team work from an office that has a tech-startup feel, with two brown leather couches and a clothes rack holding costumes used in their videos. Tequila and mescal bottles sit along a bookshelf holding Rand Paul's The Tea Party Goes to Washington and Russell Kirk's The Politics of Prudence."

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/teen-libertarian-face-brazils-young-free-market-043212589.html
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