GD's Political Animal: Ukraine

Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

How to end the war in Ukraine

A Real Ukraine Peace Plan | Ron Paul Institute | Ron Paul:

Ron Paul is skeptical that the draft Ukraine war peace plan will result in a real peace, and says there is an easier way to end the fighting.

November 25, 2025 - "Last week’s surprise release of a draft Ukraine war peace plan has raised hopes that the nearly three-year bloody conflict may finally come to an end. Ukraine has suffered horrible losses that may change the demographics of that country for decades to come. If this peace plan can be negotiated in a way that satisfies all sides and the guns finally go silent, I will be the first to cheer. However, the continued failure to understand the nature and origin of the current conflict leaves me skeptical that a real peace can be reached this way.

"From the Orange Revolution in the early 2000s to the Maidan revolution in 2014, the US and its NATO partners have been interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs in attempt to manipulate the country into a hostile position toward its much larger and more powerful neighbor, Russia. We must remember how directly coordinated the 2014 coup was by the United States. US Senators, including John McCain and Lindsey Graham, were on the main square of a foreign capital demanding that the people overthrow their duly elected government. Victoria Nuland was caught on a telephone call planning who would run the post-coup government.

"Outside intervention led us to the terrible situation of today. This peace deal is another chapter in that same intervention, with the US and its partners desperately trying to manage and solve a problem that they created in the first place. Can you solve a problem created by outside intervention with more intervention?

"For the entirety of this conflict politicians and the media have been unwavering in blaming Russia entirely for what has occurred. I agree that they’re no angels. But the real villains here are the US neocons and their European counterparts who knew it was suicidal for Ukraine to take on Russia but pushed Ukraine to keep fighting anyway.

"Early in the conflict a deal was on the table and nearly signed that would end the war, but the neocon former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson demanded that Ukraine keep fighting.

"Ukraine is the victim here, I agree. But it is as much a victim of the US and European neocons as of the Russians. They believed they could put NATO on Russia’s doorstep and face no consequences. If the tables were turned and a hostile China set up a new Latin American military alliance with the US as its designated enemy, would we sit by idly as military bases were constructed on our southern border? I don’t think so.

"President Trump promised he would end the war 24 hours after he was elected. It was an unrealistic boast, but he actually could have ended it rather quickly. The antidote to intervention Is non-intervention. Biden drug us into the war, that is true. But Trump could have pulled us out by quite simply ending all US involvement. No weapons, no intelligence, no coordination. No need for sanctions or the threat of sanctions, no need for elaborate peace plans.

"A real peace deal would realize that it was always idiotic to believe that Ukraine could stand up to Russia’s war machine – even with NATO’s backing. It is unimaginably cruel to demand that Ukraine keep fighting our proxy war down to the last Ukrainian.

"No 28-point plans can fix this. The real fix is much simpler: walk away."

https://gdspoliticalanimal.blogspot.com/2025/11/how-to-end-war-in-ukraine.html

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

America needs an 'America First' foreign policy

"Americans elected Donald Trump in part for his promise to put America first at home and overseas. He promised a war-weary America that he would start no new wars and would get us out of the existing ones. Eight months into his second Administration it appears his promise remains to be fulfilled,"

President Trump Should Return to an ‘America First’ Foreign Policy | Ron Paul Institute | Ron Paul:

August 25, 2025 - "After four years of unnecessarily confrontational foreign policy under President Biden, Americans elected Donald Trump in part for his promise to put America first at home and overseas. He promised a war-weary America that he would start no new wars and would get us out of the existing ones. Eight months into his second Administration it appears his promise remains to be fulfilled, as his approval rating continues to slip.

"On Ukraine, President Trump wisely observed coming into office that the conflict is 'Joe Biden’s war' not his own. Unfortunately he could not resist the temptation to get involved in the conflict, even under the guise of 'peacemaker.' I’ve often said that getting out of conflicts overseas is not that complicated: we should just come home. Even when there are no troops involved, 'just come home' means disengage from the conflict. But President Trump wants to play referee in the war while arming and supporting one side. Is it any wonder he is making no progress in ending the war?

"Likewise with Israel and Gaza, Trump’s promise to put America first has faltered. President Biden put Americans on the hook for additional billions of dollars to support Israel’s actions in Gaza without even a word about the slaughter and destruction. As more Americans become disgusted by Israel’s obliteration of the property and population of that tiny strip of land, Trump shows no signs of shifting from Biden’s approach. More money and more weapons are sent as starvation claims more and more children each day. Trump has reportedly remarked to a donor that his own base is turning against him because of his Israel policy. Yet he refuses to alter course and 'just come home.'

"Trump has even returned to the failed Latin America policy of his first Administration, in last week’s move toward a military confrontation with oil-rich Venezuela. Trump sent two warships and 4,000 US troops to the waters near Venezuela under the highly suspect accusation that the country’s president is actually head of an international drug cartel. He should have learned from the almost comical recognition of Juan Guaido as the real president of Venezuela in his first term that meddling in that country is not in America’s interest. It seems the neocons around him, including warhawk Marco Rubio, are sucking him into another unnecessary conflict.

"Add in Trump’s military attacks on Yemen and Iran and the balance sheet thus far does not point to an 'America first' foreign policy.

"There is still time for President Trump to change course and fulfill his promises to the American people.

Put Ukraine and Russia on notice that from this point the US is withdrawing from any role in the conflict. Let the Europeans work it out if they feel it is in their interest. Getting us out of NATO is also a good idea.
End US financial and military support for an Israel that cannot seem to get along with its neighbors. Perhaps without the US backstopping Israel’s warmongering, the country and its leadership would start to reflect on the wisdom of starting wars with multiple countries in its neighborhood.
Stop trying to overthrow Venezuela’s Maduro and everyone else the neocons have placed on the 'hit list.' End all sanctions and open up trade instead. Maduro’s failed socialist economic policies will be his undoing, not American sanctions or saber-rattling.

"America first above all means 'just come home.' It’s that simple."

https://ronpaulinstitute.org/president-trump-should-return-to-an-america-first-foreign-policy/

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

What's up between Musk and Trump?

After Donald Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill," conflict between Trump and Elon Musk was only a matter of time.

Can Trump and Musk Make Up? | Ron Paul Institute | Ron Paul:

June 9, 2025 - "Last week’s dramatic blowout between President Trump and his one-time top collaborator Elon Musk was shocking yet predictable. According to media reports, a cold war had been brewing between Musk’s people and Trump’s appointees and it was bound to break out into the open. It was only a matter of time.

Trump and Musk. Composite by Buadh, Wikimedia Commons.

"On the campaign trail, Musk provided much energy and helped ramp up enthusiasm for Donald Trump. His support for Trump made him a lightning rod for Trump-haters and he saw his personal wealth take a hit for his troubles.

"After Trump’s victory, Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency [DOGE] project was truly revolutionary. Americans were able to see up close and in real time just how government operates. Not only did the billions and trillions of dollars spent by the federal government not achieve the stated goals, but much of the spending actually harmed the United States.

"Americans were able to see that the 'aid' they send overseas does not provide food and relief for those suffering through disasters but is actually used to create a global US empire encompassing everything from the media to military spending to non-profits.

"Once USAID was targeted by DOGE, for example, we learned that 90 percent of the 'independent' media in Ukraine was US government controlled. Other countries chimed in to say that much of their own 'independent' media is propped up by the US government. Foreign 'journalists' paid by the US government are going to publish what the US government wants to be published. That is one reason Americans to this day are so ill-informed about Ukraine and what started the war. For example, how many Americans know that their own government staged a coup in Ukraine in 2014 that directly led to the disaster we have seen these past three years?

"The message was there for anyone who wanted to see it: The United States is being undermined by a government that demands the right to intervene in every aspect of our lives – and of the lives of everyone on the planet. It is not sustainable.

"In the end it was Trump’s 'Big Beautiful Bill' that broke it all apart. The US House served up a massive funding bill that, as usual, blew up the national debt with more spending and promised that sometime down the road spending cuts would kick in and we would start saving money. We’ve seen this movie many times before.

"In a post seen by over a hundred million people on his social media platform X, Elon Musk finally could hold his tongue no longer. 'This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination,' he wrote.... Musk was no-doubt frustrated that despite all of the work he and his team did to uncover government waste, he hit a brick wall in a Washington that recoils from any attempt to shrink its size and level of interference in our lives.

"Can Trump and Musk 'make up' and find a way to work together in the future? After the smoke has cleared we can only hope for a return to the principles of DOGE and the idea that current levels of spending and debt are unsustainable. Surely both men can agree on that."

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Trudeau gov't bans more guns, to send to Ukraine

The Trudeau government banned 1,500 types of firearms in 2020 and promised a buyback program, but 4 years later not a single gun has been collected. This week, though, they banned another 300 models, and announced a plan to send the guns that have yet to be collected to Ukraine.

Liberals ban hundreds more types of firearms, look to send prohibited guns to Ukraine | National Post | Stephanie Taylor:

December 5, 2024 - "The federal government is adding hundreds more types of firearms to its list of banned guns and looking to send some of them to Ukraine. On Thursday, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced the Liberals were adding 324 more 'unique makes and models' of what he called 'assault-style' firearms to its list of banned guns, taking effect immediately. All current and future variants of these guns would be prohibited, raising the total number of models banned to more than 2,000, according to Public Safety Canada. The number of restricted firearms affected is 14,521....

"In May 2020, the Liberal government announced it was banning some 1,500 types of firearms, promising to compensate gun owners and businesses through a still not-yet-functional forced-buyback program. The Parliamentary Budget Officer has estimated the program could cost upwards of $750 million, depending on its design. An amnesty order protecting from prosecution gun owners and businesses with prohibited inventory they acquired lawfully, including the 324 models added Thursday, is currently in place until October 2025, several days after the deadline for the next federal election to take place.

"LeBlanc said on Thursday that the pilot phase of the forced-buyback program targeting distributors and retailers is underway, with four businesses currently participating.... He also said that the guns taken from retailers could be shipped to Ukraine, which is fighting a war against Russia’s 2022 invasion. 'As part of that process, the Government of Canada has committed to the Ukrainian government to identify whether some of these guns could be donated to support the fight for democracy in Ukraine,' LeBlanc said.

"Defence Minister Bill Blair said the Liberals asked the Ukrainians in October if their troops could use some of the guns Canada has banned. 'They confirmed that indeed some of the weapons that are part of the program would be suitable,' said Blair. Businesses that choose to work with the Defence Department on the initiative would be compensated, he said.

"LeBlanc said more gun-control measures are coming, with the RCMP studying what to do about the SKS, a popular hunting rifle, which the Liberals had originally tried to prohibit in 2022 but have since backed down. He committed that he would resolve the SKS question by February 2025, when the government plans to come out with a new list of prohibited firearms. He noted that many First Nations and Inuit hunters use the SKS, which makes it more complicated....

"Conservative public safety critic Raquel Dancho blasted Thursday’s new prohibitions as strictly symbolic moves that would not address the real causes of violent crime. 'After nine years of Trudeau’s reckless policies, he has unleashed a crimewave (sic) on Canada. Violent crime has exploded over 50% and gun crime has surged 116%,' she said in a statement.

Trudeau has failed to fix the border disorder that lets in almost all of the illegal firearms used in gun crimes from the US.... Instead of locking up criminals and reversing his laws that have contributed to the alarming explosion of crime in our country, Trudeau chose to attack lawful and vetted hunters, sport shooters, and Indigenous Peoples who safely and legally use firearms as they have done for generations.

"Alberta Justice Minister Mickey Amery echoed the comments.... 'Instead of choosing to commit scarce resources to addressing criminal usage of firearms, such as through strengthening our border to combat the trafficking of firearms that make up the overwhelming majority of those used in violent crime, the federal government has chosen to focus its attention once again on undermining law-abiding firearms ownership in Alberta and across Canada.'

"The Alberta UCP government has said it will not enforce the federal government’s mandatory-buyback program or require provincial officials to assist with it. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have also said they oppose the plan."

Gun owners say new legislation is merely "doubling down" on "ineffective" path | CTV News | December 6, 2024:

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Political games played over Ukraine, says Liberal

Toronto Liberal MP Rob Oliphant, Canada's Foreign Affairs parliamentary secretary, decries 'political games' over criticism of Conservatives on Ukraine.

Liberal MP decries 'political games' over criticism of Conservatives on Ukraine | CBC News | Dylan Robertson, Canadian Press·

Rob Oliphant, 2023. Wikimedia Commons.

March 21, 2024 - "One of the Liberals' point people on foreign policy says framing the Tories as soft on Ukraine isn't helping the country fend off Russia's invasion. Toronto MP Rob Oliphant ... parliamentary secretary to Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, ... told a House of Commons committee Wednesday that he has no doubt the Conservatives support Ukraine and 'political games' do nothing to help that country.

"His comments come months after the Liberals began lambasting the Conservatives over their position on a bill to implement an updated Canada-Ukraine free trade deal, which became law this week.

"The Tories said they disagree with language in the deal that says both countries will promote carbon pricing and repeatedly claimed it would impose a carbon tax on Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed the updated agreement and his country already has a carbon price.

"The Ukrainian Canadian Congress also criticized the Tories for their position, and the Liberals launched attack ads about the vote in Prairie ridings with large Ukrainian diaspora populations held by Conservative MPs.

"Despite his party accusing the Conservatives of 'turning their backs on Ukraine,' Oliphant said he doesn't believe that's true. 'I believe Canadians' commitment (to Ukraine) is unwavering — and despite the political games we play, I believe the Opposition's commitment is unwavering,. he said. 'I may get in trouble for saying that, but I really believe that. And we only get ahead if we do that, and don't play games with this.'

"Analysts have said repeatedly that Moscow is seeking to drive wedges between and within Western countries over their level of support for Ukraine.

"Asked about his comments, Oliphant clarified that he feels the Tories are still part of the problem. 'While the Conservatives play politics with free trade and carbon pricing, they likely support Ukraine in its war with Russia,' he said in a text message."

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Israeli gov't letting citizens arm themselves

In the wake of last weekend's terrorist attacks, Israel's National Security Minister has "directed the Firearms Licensing Division to go on an emergency operation, in order to allow as many citizens as possible to arm themselves."

Israel Eases Guns Restrictions Amidst Security Failures | Reason | J.D. Tuccille:

October 13, 2023 - "In the wake of the Hamas terrorist organization's murderous attacks on Israel, the country's government is admitting — not for the first time — that even Israel's extensive security apparatus can't be everywhere to protect everyone. Under the pressure of bloody events, officials are again making it easier for civilians to acquire and carry firearms for self-defense. 'Today I directed the Firearms Licensing Division to go on an emergency operation, in order to allow as many citizens as possible to arm themselves," announced National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. 'The plan will take effect within 24 hours.'

"By no means does the order eliminate the country's tight restrictions on guns. But it's an acknowledgment that too many Israelis were caught with limited access to the means of self-defense when Hamas terrorists crossed the border from Gaza and attacked civilians.... Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were caught flat-footed and scrambled to catch up with events.

"This is actually the second time this year that Israel's government loosened gun rules in response to attacks on the public. 'Israel's security cabinet has approved measures to make it easier for Israelis to carry guns after two separate attacks by Palestinians in Jerusalem over the past two days,' the BBC reported in January. That followed an earlier reform allowing more civilians to carry defensive weapons in 2018. 'Trained citizens who hold weapons in the public sphere contribute to the feeling of security,' then-Security Minister Gilad Erdan said at the time. 'They are an important line of defense against "lone wolf" actions and are used in a sense as a temporary force multiplier, thereby strengthening public safety.'

"As sophisticated as Israel's security apparatus is, it's not omnipotent. The failures of intelligence services and military forces have led to recrimination and will undoubtedly result in changes. But human institutions are flawed and even the best are vulnerable to enemies capable of probing for weaknesses and planning around them. That's an ongoing problem for officials challenged with protecting the public from criminals and terrorists. Then-Interpol Secretary General Ronald Noble wrestled with that dilemma after a 2013 terrorist attack at the Westgate mall in Nairobi, Kenya. 'Societies have to think about how they're going to approach the problem,' Noble told ABC News. 'One is to say we want an armed citizenry; you can see the reason for that.... You have to ask yourself, "Is an armed citizenry more necessary now than it was in the past with an evolving threat of terrorism?" This is something that has to be discussed,' Noble added.

"Israel is making a choice now after Hamas terrorists penetrated the 'extraordinary security' around Gaza with explosives, boats, and paragliders. With that barrier penetrated, too many Israelis proved to be soft targets for assailants who butchered their way through communities.

"Ukraine made similar choices after Russia invaded at the beginning of 2022, putting many civilians on the front lines in their own homes. 'We will give weapons to anyone who wants to defend the country,' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced. 'Be ready to support Ukraine in the squares of our cities.' Ukrainians anticipated that necessity, flocking to arm themselves in the days before Russian troops crossed the border.... Polling later found that 58 percent of Ukrainians supported wider civilian gun ownership....

"The hard truth is, no matter how well-funded and trained law enforcement agencies and military forces may be, they're imperfect. The only people guaranteed to be at the site of any attack are the perpetrators and those positioned to be either victims or survivors. If those people don't have the means to defend themselves and are stuck waiting for rescue, they're more likely to be relegated to the victim category than to emerge as survivors....

"Best wishes to the people of Israel, and elsewhere, who have suffered threats in the past, face them now, and will experience them in the future. All people have an absolute right to defend themselves and that right, and access to the means to exercise it, should be respected by law everywhere."

Israel Now Wants As Many Citizens Armed As Possible Reversing Their Strict Gun Control | Colion Noir | October 10, 2023:

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Ukrainians want draft-eligible refugees sent back

Ukrainian government officials are calling for NATO countries to extradite Ukrainian war refugees eligible for conscription. The Polish government is willing to do so (subject to court approval), but the governments of Czechia, Austria, and Hungary have indicated they will not comply.

Poland May Start to Extradite Ukrainian ‘Draft Dodgers’ | Kyiv Post:

September 4, 2023 - "On Sept. 1 David Arachamia, leader of Ukraine’s Servant of the People party, said that Ukrainian law enforcement agencies should demand the extradition of men of military age who had illegally left Ukraine to escape mobilization and prosecute them.

"The Polish news outlet, Rzeczpospolitej reported on data provided by Poland’s Border Guard that 2.87 million Ukrainian adults had crossed into Poland between Feb. 24, 2022 and Aug. 31 this year. It was estimated that around 80,000 men aged 18-60, who were potentially eligible for military service, had entered the country; the whereabouts of whom are currently not known. A spokesperson for the Polish Border Guard, Lt. Anna Michalska, is quoted as saying that it was not known how many actually met the exemption requirements.

"Ukraine shares borders with five countries where Ukrainian men may have entered: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. It is feared that the number of those who have fled may run into the tens of thousands. Fedir Venislavsky, a member of Ukraine’s National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee said the numbers of those who illicitly avoided going to war and took refuge abroad is hugely significant. 'These people could be mobilized and increase the ranks of our armed forces, thereby strengthening our defense and security'....

"Inspector Mariusz Ciarka, a spokesman for the Poland’s Police Headquarters indicated that there had been a number of instances of individuals intercepted trying to cross the border illegally without an exemption.... In the case of those who appeared to have an exemption and crossed apparently legally, the inspector said it ... would be necessary for Ukraine to issue an international arrest warrant for each individual case. The details would be entered into Poland’s National Police Information System (KSIP) and shared with Interpol. If a Ukrainian was stopped for something such as a traffic offence, KSIP would flag the fact and the person would be detained. However, the police could not act on the warrant until a Polish court had approved extradition.

"In July the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) charged the MP Lyudmila Marchenko and her assistant with corruption or demanding a bribe to provide a man with a permit to leave Ukraine as well as registering him on the Shlyakh system, which allows men of military age to leave the country."
Read more: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21242

Ukraine Demands Extradition of Its Draft-Age Men | European Conservative | Zoltán Kottász:

September 9, 2023 - "Neither the Austrian, nor the Czech government is willing to bow to Ukraine’s demands and extradite Ukrainian men who have fled the war-torn country. 'That would be a massive interference in our sovereignty, we would never do that,' a spokesman for the Austrian Interior Ministry said to Exxpress on September 7th. 'Such a request would likely contravene Czech law, making it impossible to approve it,' the Czech Justice Ministry stated in the Prague Monitor....

"With the war against Russia costing thousands of lives, the Ukrainian leadership is stepping up its efforts to recruit soldiers. But there are more and more reports of men fleeing the country to avoid military service.... The number of Ukrainian men who have successfully avoided mobilisation and sought refuge abroad could be in the tens of thousands, but there are no official statistics. What Eurostat’s statistics do tell us is that 17.7% of the 4 million Ukrainians who have been granted temporary protection in the EU since the start of the war are men aged 18-64....

"According to Exxpress, there are around 14,000 Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 54 who have been registered as refugees in Austria. The government in Vienna has clearly stated it will not deport any of them. Prague has also emphasised that extradition treaties do not apply under Czech law to crimes of a military or political nature. Polish authorities estimate that 80,000 Ukrainian men of military age may have entered Poland since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the German Interior Ministry has registered more than 200,000 men in the same age group since the start of the war. Tareq Alaows of the human rights organisation Pro Asyl, told Deutschlandfunk that evading conscription is a human right, therefore, the German government shouldn’t give in to Ukraine’s demands, if such demands were made.

"While people with disabilities and illnesses are mostly exempt from the draft, Hungarian-language Ukrainian news website, Kárpáti Igaz Szó reports that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence recently updated its list of illnesses that are no longer considered debilitating enough to stop men from serving in the army. These include clinically cured tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, asymptomatic HIV, mental and neurological disorders that cause only minimal pain and rare physical manifestations."
Read more: https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news/ukraine-demands-extradition-of-its-draft-age-men/

Germany just told Ukraine to F*CK off, along with 3 other E.U. countries | Redacted News | September 15, 2023:

Saturday, March 12, 2022

Open letter shoots down Ukraine no-fly zone

We call on Biden to reject reckless demands for a no-fly zone | Guardian - Open letter:

Amaury LaPorte, Protests Against War in Ukraine 068 - No Fly Zone, Feb. 27, 2002. CC BY, 2.0, Wikimedia Commons.

March 11, 2022 - "We, the undersigned, urge the Biden administration to continue to reject calls to impose a dangerous no-fly zone over all or part of Ukraine. A no-fly zone would commit the US and Nato forces to shoot down any Russian aircraft that enter. It would be naive to think that merely declaring a no-fly zone would convince the Russian military to comply voluntarily. In short, a no-fly zone would mean going to war with Russia.

"We deplore Russia’s aggression, admire the bravery of Ukrainians, mourn the loss of innocent life, and wish for a speedy end to the conflict. However, it strains credulity to think that a US war with Russia would make the American people safer or more prosperous. To the contrary, going to war with Russia, a nuclear peer of the United States, would expose Americans to vast and unnecessary risks. A war that expands beyond Ukraine’s borders could also inflict damage across Europe and weaken America’s Nato allies. We call upon the administration to avoid such a gambit and continue to use appropriate diplomatic means and economic pressure to end the conflict.

"The United States has already made clear its opposition to the war and to Russia’s attacks on innocent Ukrainians, and has imposed punishing economic sanctions. What the announcement of a no-fly zone would add would be the threat to engage in a shooting war with Russian forces. And if the United States threatens to do something, it will have to deliver. As two retired US officers have written, “Contrary to what so many in the commentariat seem to believe, a no-fly zone is not a military half-measure. It is a combat operation designed to deprive the enemy of its airpower, and it involves direct and sustained fighting.”

"Some of those calling for even a 'limited' no-fly zone admit that they are willing to see the United States and its Nato allies wage war against Russia in defense of Ukraine. For example, one prominent signatory of a letter advocating a no-fly zone has recently admitted that a no-fly zone 'is an act of war ... You have to enforce a no-fly zone, which means you have to be willing to use force against those who break the no-fly zone.' Even before the war began, another signatory wrote that 'US leaders should be marshaling an international coalition of the willing, readying military forces to deter Putin and, if necessary, prepare for war ... The horrible possibility exists that Americans, with our European allies, must use our military to roll back Russians – even at risk of direct combat.' A no-fly zone would expand the war, not stop it.

"Throughout the current crisis, the Biden administration has been clear-eyed in rejecting the possibility of using US military force in Ukraine. The administration’s principled restraint commands bipartisan support. For example, Republican senator Marco Rubio has warned that a no-fly zone 'means starting world war three'. Democratic senator Chris Murphy likewise writes that a no-fly zone is 'a bad idea and Congress would never authorize it'.

"The United States and its European allies have imposed sanctions on Russia so severe that they have little historical precedent. We are also providing Ukraine with significant military support. Yet there must be a clear ceiling for escalation, as US officials and experts appreciated during the cold war, when the United States faced a more powerful adversary than Russia represents today. Russian President Vladimir Putin will pay for his reckless gamble in Ukraine. The United States should respond in responsible ways, not make a reckless gamble of its own.

"Individuals have signed in their personal capacity, using affiliations for identification purposes only."

Read signatories: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/we-call-on-biden-to-reject-reckless-demands-for-a-no-fly-zone

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Russian war protests and Western sanctions

Why Russian opposition to Putin's war is crucial — and how U.S. sanctions could hurt it | The Week - Saoirse Gowan:

March 6, 2022 - "Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggressive, immoral, and illegal invasion of Ukraine that began last month has only continued to escalate.... But where Ukrainians have banded together to fight for their lives and their sovereignty, Russia is not united in this war. Russian protestors have risked everything to stand against the war despite living under an authoritarian government that meets dissent with police and judicial brutality.... OVD-Info, an independent human rights media project that tracks political persecution in Russia, estimates that more than 8,000 Russians have been detained as a result of anti-war activities in recent days. Many media outlets have been forced to close or to cease their coverage of the conflict, and new legislation passed in the Russian Duma this week would impose 15-year prison sentences on any journalist or protestor who contradicts the government's official narrative about the invasion.

"These crackdowns don't show the strength of the Russian state, but rather its fear of the Russian people. Governments engage in repression of this nature precisely because ordinary people possess the capability to force changes in policy and government through collective action.... We know from U.S. wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan that withdrawals often come about due to a combination of stiff resistance from the occupied population and a strong anti-war movement that succeeds in keeping a costly war at the forefront of domestic debate. Americans may be less familiar with the catastrophic Soviet intervention in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, a blunder so bad it contributed significantly to the Soviet Union's collapse. That invasion involved over half a million Soviet troops, many conscripted. Some of its survivors surely must empathize with the young men forced into the conflict today — told by propagandists they'd be greeted as liberators only to discover they're hated as an invading army....

"Family members of conscript soldiers, too, are a key demographic for resisting the war from within Russia, much like the grieving American mothers whose children were sent off to die in Iraq and Afghanistan. While we condemn Russian political leadership, the generals carrying out this brutality, and soldiers who perpetrate atrocities, it is important for us not to dehumanize Russian conscripts and their families or celebrate their deaths. Nor should we turn a blind eye to instances of discrimination against Russian culture in the West, such as vandalism against Russian-themed restaurants, which will lend credibility to Putin's claims that Western solidarity with Ukrainians is motivated by hatred of Russians, especially when those claims are filtered through propagandistic media.

"Indeed, this war is a tragedy for ordinary people on all sides — though certainly a greater one for Ukrainians as a whole — and we should remember that, absent the unlikely event of an outright Ukrainian military victory, the options remaining on the table are basically three: 1) the effective end of Ukrainian independence, 2) a military intervention by NATO that could trigger a nuclear exchange, or 3) a diplomatic solution fostered by a combination of Ukrainian resistance and Russian domestic opposition to the war.

"In this context, other governments, and particularly that of the United States, have a responsibility to consider the outcomes of retaliatory economic measures. Russian history professor Gregory Afinogenov of Georgetown University argues at Dissent that sanctions against Putin himself will do little to change his behavior here because Putin is largely motivated by concerns other than material wealth. Sanctions against oligarchs, Afinogenov argues, will only increase their dependence on the Kremlin for economic security.... Afinogenov reserves his strongest criticism, however, for broad sanctions that primarily hurt the Russian working class:

[C]utting Russia off from SWIFT and freezing central bank assets are the worst [sanctions], because they lead to hyperinflation and shortages of key imports that millions of vulnerable Russians depend on. Putin has already anticipated the likely effects of all three types of sanctions and therefore will not be deterred by them; neither have sanctions ever worked to catalyze effective political opposition to the regime (or to other regimes targeted by Western sanctions). [Dissent]

"This is correct. There is little evidence the U.S. sanctions which target ordinary people in Russia (and many, many other nations) do much other than giving the regime a scapegoat for economic troubles and a pretext for cracking down on domestic opposition. Punishing working-class Russians for their government's actions will not help Ukrainians, but it might undermine popular movements that could develop the capacity to force Putin to withdraw, to bring Russian conscripts home from war, and — we must hope — to bring larger change to Moscow, building a more peaceful, democratic, and egalitarian Russia....

"Leveling severe sanctions so we can 'do something' may make us feel less impotent. But cheering brave Russian protesters is useless if our policies actively hurt their push for a just peace."

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Covid restrictions tightened across Europe

COVID in Europe: Austria extends lockdown as Portugal tightens restrictions | Euronews with AP:

Map courtesy New York Times

December 1, 2021 - "COVID-19 cases are sweeping Europe once again.... Measures vary across the continent.... Here is a run-down of the latest situation in some of the European countries.

"Austria's lockdown has officially been extended until December 11.... Essential shops that were allowed to open until 9 pm, however, will have to close by 7 pm starting on ... December 2.... Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg has also said that vaccination will become compulsory from February 1. Authorities in Austria said on November 17 that travellers would need to show a negative PCR test upon entering the country.
"Portugal reintroduced tighter pandemic restrictions on Wednesday.... Face masks have once again become mandatory and the country tightened control of its borders. A digital certificate proving vaccination or recovery from COVID-19 is required to access restaurants, cinemas and hotels....
"Belgium has closed nightclubs and requires people to work from home as part of an effort to curb COVID-19 cases. The government issued new measures on Friday (November 26) including shutting bars and restaurants from 11 pm. Events held indoors must be seated and private meetings, besides weddings and funerals, are banned....
"Netherlands ... restrictions entered into force over the weekend includ[e] the closure of all non-essential shops including bars and restaurants from 17:00 to 05:00.... Hospitality and cultural venues have to ensure people are seated 1.5m apart.... Amateurs sporting events are also not permitted between 17:00 and 05:00 with professional sports events allowed to proceed but with no spectator.
"A 30-day state of emergency came into effect on Friday (November 26) as the Czech Republic sees record-high COVID-19 cases.... Christmas markets across the country are banned and people will not be allowed to drink alcohol in public places.... Bars, restaurants, nightclubs, discotheques and casinos have to close at 10 p.m. The number of people at culture and sports events will be limited to 1,000 who are vaccinated or have recovered from COVID-19 All other public gatherings can be attended by up to 100 visitors, down from 1,000.
"Slovakia declared a 90-day state of emergency and a two-week lockdown.... The ... measures ... include closing all non-essential stores, as well as bars and restaurants....
[In] France ... From 15 January, all adults will need a booster jab at least seven months after being fully vaccinated in order to keep their health passes. From mid-December, people over the age of 65 will need one to have their health passes extended....
"The Italian government on Wednesday (November 24) decided to exclude unvaccinated people from certain leisure activities.... Starting December 6, only people with proof of vaccination or of having recovered from COVID-19 can eat at indoor restaurants, go to the movies or attend sporting events. Having just a negative test result is no longer acceptable.... A new government decree also made vaccinations mandatory for law enforcement, military, and all school employees, among others.... Twenty towns in Italy's South Tyrol province face harsher COVID-19 restrictions from Wednesday (November 24) with an 8 pm curfew.... On public transport, passengers must wear an FFP2 mask or equivalent....
"Sweden ... has announced that from December 1 a health pass will be required to attend any event of more than 100 people. The COVID pass — attesting that the holder has either been fully vaccinated, tested negative over the previous 72 hours or recovered from the disease over the preceding six months — has so far only been used in Sweden for travel purposes....
"New COVID-19 restrictions came into force in Ireland on Thursday (November 18).... People were told to work from home unless attending the workplace is 'absolutely necessary'. A requirement for COVID-19 passes (based on vaccination or recovery) is extended to cinemas and theatres, while closing times for all on-licensed premises, including in hotels, will move to midnight.
"[In] Ukraine From December 9, unvaccinated civil servants and social workers will be fired, the government said....
[In] Latvia From 15 December, people must present a COVID-19 vaccination or recovery certificate in order to show up to work.
"On November 12, Denmark reintroduced its digital pass.... For the next month, a valid pass is mandatory in order to enter nightclubs or cafes or to be seated indoors in restaurants." [stress added]

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

New Ukraine gov't plans 'economic revolution'

Ukraine’s libertarian revolution - Atlantic Council - James Brooke:

September 10, 2019 - "Kyiv is ground zero for the most significant economic revolution in the region today. In a libertarian reshaping of Ukraine’s post-Soviet system, the new government plans to approve the largest farm land market in Europe, the biggest post-Soviet privatization fire sale in a generation, and the opening of roads, railroads, ports, airports, oil and gas to private investment. Casino gambling and amber mining are to be legalized. Foreign exchange controls are to be lifted. Labor laws are to be liberalized.

"In a whirlwind of legislative activity reminiscent of Franklin Roosevelt’s First 100 Days, Ukraine’s new government is creating opportunities for billions of dollars of foreign and national investment in the 2020s. In a move bound to unleash years of pent up investment, the central bank promises to cut interest rates in half by the end of next year. Putting small government in practice, Ukraine’s new Prime Minister, Oleksiy Honcharuk last week cut the number of ministries by one third — from 25 to 17....

"Volodymyr Zelenskyy won an open, multiparty presidential race, emerging with ... 73 percent of the final presidential vote in April. Three months later, in parliamentary elections, he won a clear majority — 60 percent of Rada seats. In late August, Zelenskyy’s trust rating was 70 percent, according to a survey by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation. On the campaign trail, Zelenskyy was short on promises and short on interviews. Voters elected a black box. Last week, he jumped out of that box and proved to be a 41-year-old libertarian.

"Part of the shakeup is a generational turnover. The post-post-Soviet generation now run Ukraine. With the youngest cabinet in Europe, average age 39, Ukraine’s cabinet members order their food online, order their taxis online, order their vacations online, and pay in stores with contactless bank cards. Faster adapters to new technology, Ukrainians bought 56 percent of their railroad tickets online this summer....

"Creating the 'state in the smartphone,' is the task of Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s new deputy prime minister and minister for digital transformation. At 28, he shares the title of Europe’s youngest minister with Virginius Sinkevicius, Lithuania’s economy minister. Encapsulating Kyiv’s ambitious plans to create Estonia-style e-citizenship, Fedorov tells the Kyiv Post: 'Eventually, people will stop noticing the government. They’ll be using it like they use Uber or Booking.com — only when they need it.'

"Press reactions range from ho hum to skeptical to hostile. 'Vulgar libertarianism,' sniped one Kyiv economist. Traditional political scientists, trained to identify a revolution as a worker-peasant alliance taking over the telegraph office, do not see anything special going on. Many Ukrainian free marketers are sulking in the sidelines because they misread the Zelenskyy movement last spring. But with the government’s goals and deadlines clearly set, the prime minister reports that more and more Maidan-era talent are signing up to help."

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