Showing posts with label coronavirus testing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label coronavirus testing. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

New Covid variant wave met in USA with apathy

Headline, U.S. News & World Report, Apr. 4, 2022

America Is Staring Down Its First So What? Wave | The Atlantic - Katherine J. Wu:

April 5, 2022 - "If the United States has been riding a COVID-19 ’coaster for the past two-plus years, New York and a flush of states in the Northeast have consistently been seated in the train’s front car. And right now, in those parts of the country, coronavirus cases are, once again, going up. The rest of America may soon follow, now that BA.2 — the more annoying, faster-spreading sister of the original Omicron variant, BA.1 — has overtaken its sibling to become the nation’s dominant version of SARS-CoV-2.

"Technologically and immunologically speaking, Americans should be well prepared to duel a new iteration of SARS-CoV-2, with two years of vaccines, testing, treatment, masking, ventilation, and distancing know-how in hand. Our immunity from BA.1 is also relatively fresh, and the weather’s rapidly warming.... But ... the country’s capacity to track the coronavirus is on a decided downswing.... Testing is how individuals, communities, and experts stay on top of where the virus is and whom it’s impacting; it’s also one of the main bases of the CDC’s new guidance on when to mask up again. Without it, the nation’s ability to forecast whatever wave might come around next is bound to be clouded.

"'I keep thinking back to this idea of If we don’t measure it, it won’t happen,' says Shweta Bansal, an infectious-disease modeler at Georgetown University.... In reality, 'it’s very well happening, and we just don’t see it yet.' There is still no guarantee that the next wave is nigh — but if it is, the U.S. is poorly positioned to meet it. Americans’ motivational tanks are near empty.... The next wave may be less a BA.2 wave, and more a so what? wave — one many Americans care little to see, because, after two years of crisis, they care so little to respond.

"Colloquially, epidemiologically, a wave is a pretty squishy term, a 'know it when you see it' notion that gets subjective, fast. 'There is no technical definition,' says C. Brandon Ogbunu, a mathematical modeler studying infectious-disease dynamics at Yale. And with COVID-19, there’s no consensus among experts on exactly when waves begin or end, or how sharp or tall one must be to count.... That makes the start of a wave tough to identify even when testing data abound; no single inflection point guarantees a shift from not a wave to definitely a wave. Technically, the BA.1 wave that reached its zenith in mid-January may not have even ended yet, because experts haven’t decided what threshold it would need to reach to do so.... 

"Watching only the national curve can also be misleading. Country-wide data show only a gargantuan average; these numbers smooth and conceal the case rises that have already been erupting in isolated patchworks. That sort of variability is a product of where humans have carried this new subvariant; of the immune landscape that vaccinations and past versions of the virus have left behind; and of the local defenses, such as masking (or not), that people are leveraging against BA.2....

"And these more regional waves still matter, even if they seem at first easier to ignore. They will, in many cases, mark the places least prepared to weather another surge in infections. Tests, while more abundant, have remained inaccessible to many of those who need them; without tests, treatments, too, will drift out of reach.... Wastewater surveillance, which homes in on virus particles extruded in waste, could help — but these monitoring sides aren’t distributed evenly, either. As things stand, the national map of where the virus is moving is full of blank spots and dark patches. Even unmeasured waves, if they grow big enough, have ways of breaking over us. At worst, the virus could eventually surprise us with a rash of hospitalizations — a sign that the initial bump of cases, one we should have responded to, is already in our rearview mirror.

"Not all case rises have to spell disaster. Since November, when Omicron was first identified, more Americans have been vaccinated for the first time, or boosted, or infected; rapid tests have become more available; and the oral antiviral Paxlovid has hit far more pharmacy shelves. All these factors, plus a springtime flocking into the outdoors, especially in the northern U.S., could help blunt a potential wave’s peak; some may even help uncouple a rise in infections from a secondary surge in hospitalizations and deaths.... It’s certainly a reasonable future to hope for, but not an outcome that can be taken for granted.... 

"Human actions can slow rises in cases. They can also accelerate them. And when infections take off, it’s not always easy to tell who holds the steering wheel — pathogen or host. 'Every outbreak since the beginning of humankind has a behavioral component, an immunological component, and a viral component,' Yale’s Ogbunu told me. 'Where one ends and another begins is never completely clear.' But Americans are too far along in this pandemic, and too familiar with the tools we need to manage it, to shirk culpability entirely."

Read more: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/04/ba2-omicron-variant-covid-surge/629474/

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Record Covid cases & deaths in South Korea

South Korea COVID-19: Country records highest daily coronavirus deaths and more than 600,000 cases in 24 hours | Sky News:

17 March 17, 2022 - "South Korea has recorded the highest number of daily COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic as the country continues to battle a surge of Omicron cases. Health officials reported 429 deaths in the latest 24-hour period, nearly 140 more than the previous one-day record set on Tuesday. More than 621,000 new infections were reported, another record daily jump, shattering Wednesday's previous high of 400,624.

"The latest figures pushed the national caseload to more than 8.2 million, with 7.4 million cases recorded since the start of February. Despite the rise, government health authorities have maintained their message that Omicron is no deadlier than seasonal influenza for vaccinated people and believes the strain of coronavirus is nearing its peak. 

"The country still has a much lower rate of COVID deaths than the US or some European nations, in relation to population size. Officials attribute this to high vaccination rates, with more than 68% of the population having received booster jabs. However, some experts have criticised the country's government for easing social distancing rules and communicating to the public that Omicron causes mild symptoms....

"Speaking during a briefing, Lee Sang-won, a senior Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency official, said that health authorities feel 'apologetic' over the explosion of Omicron cases, which has been bigger than they had anticipated. He said around 70,000 of the new cases reported on Thursday were infections that were mistakenly omitted from Wednesday's tally, and that the real daily increase would be around 550,000.

"As a result of the Omicron surge, the country has been forced to focus its limited medical resources on priority groups, meaning stringent COVID response tests, contact tracing and quarantine have been abandoned."

Read more: https://news.sky.com/story/south-korea-covid-19-country-records-highest-daily-coronavirus-deaths-as-omicron-cases-surge-12568421

Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Covid, lockdown plans cause chaos in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Braces for Lockdown as Daily Cases Breach 55,000 | Bloomberg - Annie Lee and Michelle Fay Cortez:

March 1, 2022 - "Hong Kong reported a record of more than 55,000 daily new infections on Wednesday as the city’s spiraling outbreak sees thousands of residents flee while those remaining strip shelves of food and medicine. The figure is up from 32,597 a day earlier. Health authorities also announced 117 deaths, mostly people from care facilities, and said there are 64 patients in critical condition in hospital.

"The continued spike in cases comes amid growing chaos and confusion around the city’s plan to test the whole population of 7.4 million three times in March, with dueling local media reports about the length and strictness of the lockdown to occur while testing is conducted.  

On Wednesday afternoon, after over a week out of the public eye, Chief Executive Carrie Lam sought to reassure residents.... China will ensure Hong Kong has enough food and other supplies during the Covid outbreak, said Lam, urging residents to stop their panicked purchasing. There will also be unlimited supplies of medical equipment available, she said. Lam acknowledged that there won’t be enough beds to isolate everyone found to be infected with the virus during the city-wide testing program.... People will be able to get their needs met even during the mass testing effort, she said, ruling out a 'wholesale' city lockdown, though she did not clarify how the mass testing would be conducted and when....

"The uncertainty about how residents will be treated, and rising case and death rates, led U.S. authorities to warn against travel to the city. The U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory to a Level 4 - Do Not Travel - because of Covid and related restrictions, while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention bumped its travel alert two places to 'high.' The zero-tolerance approach to Covid-19 by Hong Kong and China 'severely impacts travel and access to public services,' the U.S. Consulate General Hong Kong and Macau said in an email. 'We especially want to note for families considering traveling to or residing in Hong Kong that in some cases, children in Hong Kong who test positive have been separated from their parents and kept in isolation until they meet local hospital discharge requirements'.... 

"Local media reports have differed on the details of the upcoming lockdown, sowing confusion. HK01 reported Wednesday that there would be a four-day limited lockdown at the end of March, and Cable TV said the city will set a time limit for residents to buy groceries. Stories from Sing Tao Daily and the South China Morning Post a day earlier triggered panic-buying with details of a strict nine-day lockdown planned for the middle of March.

"Many among the anxious population, which just two months ago were living in largely virus-free conditions, have had enough. There were 43,689 net departures from the city in the past two weeks, the most since the start of the pandemic, according to government data. In a bear case -- where the Covid outbreak peaks late in the second quarter -- Bank of America Corp. analysts estimate 2% to 3% of Hong Kong’s population could depart every month."

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/hong-kong-plans-four-day-lockdown-amid-mass-testing-hk01-says

Friday, February 11, 2022

Sweden ends vaccine pass, most Covid testing

Sweden ends COVID-19 testing as pandemic restrictions lifted | CTV News - David Keyton, Associated Press:

Image courtesy Al Jazeera

February 9, 2022 - "Sweden has halted wide-scale testing for COVID-19 even among people showing symptoms of an infection, putting an end to the mobile city-square tent sites, drive-in swab centres and home-delivered tests that became ubiquitous during the pandemic and provided essential data for tracking its spread. The move puts the Scandinavian nation at odds with most of Europe, but some experts say it could become the norm as costly testing yields fewer benefits with the easily transmissible but milder Omicron variant and as governments begin to consider treating COVID-19 like they do other endemic illnesses. 

"'We have reached a point where the cost and relevance of the testing is no longer justifiable.' Swedish Public Health Agency chief Karin Tegmark Wisell told the national broadcast SVT this week. 'If we were to have extensive testing adapted to everyone who has COVID-19, that would mean half a billion kronor a week (about US$55 million) and 2 billion a month ($220 million),' Tegmark Wisell added.

"Starting Wednesday, only health care and elderly care workers and the most vulnerable will be entitled to free PCR testing if they are symptomatic, while the rest of the population will simply be asked to stay home if they show symptoms that could be COVID-19. Antigen tests are readily available for purchase in supermarkets and pharmacies, but those results aren't reported to health authorities. Private health care providers can also perform tests and offer certificates for international travel, but the cost won't be reimbursed by the state or health insurance.

"High vaccination rates in Sweden are creating optimism among health officials and a late 2020 study released Tuesday show[ed] antibodies present in 85% of samples.

"Dr. Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter Medical School in Britain, said that with a substantial percentage of people vaccinated, 'an informed, educated and knowledgeable population' can be trusted to isolate if they show symptoms without the need for 'wholesale testing that is not going to be value for money.... Sweden is leading the way, and other nations will inevitably follow,' Pankhania said. 'We don't need extensive testing for the sake of testing, but we must look nevertheless in sensitive settings such as hospitals, nursing homes and other sensitive places where there are very vulnerable people.'

"In 2021, the region of Stockholm alone spent the equivalent of more than US$320 million on PCR tests, money the government says could be better spent elsewhere.

"For most of the pandemic, Sweden stood out among European nations for its comparatively hands-off response. It never went into lockdown or closed businesses, largely relying instead on individual responsibility to control infections. While coronavirus deaths were high compared with other Nordic countries, they were lower than many other places in Europe that did implement lockdowns.

"Also Wednesday, the country scrapped as of midnight its limits on how many people may gather at events or in restaurants, vaccine certificates can no longer be required and reduced operating hours have been cancelled for bars and eateries. Announcing the reopening last week, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that 'the pandemic is not over but has entered a totally new phase,' and while infection rates have risen, it is not overly burdening hospitals. That tracks with what's been happening in countries across Europe recently as authorities relax coronavirus restrictions that have dominated the continent for the past two years."

Read more: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/sweden-ends-covid-19-testing-as-pandemic-restrictions-lifted-1.5774210

Sunday, December 19, 2021

US struggles with at-home Covid test shortage

Where Are All the At-Home COVID Tests? | New York - Margaret Hartmann, Intelligencer:

Updated December 10, 2021 - "On February 21, the Washington Post published a story titled, 'A fast, at-home coronavirus test will be available to Americans this year.' At the time, public-health officials had been calling for fast, widely available at-home COVID-19 tests for months.... As the Post reported, the White House was finally making that a reality.... But as we approach the end of 2021, pharmacy shelves in the U.S. still aren’t teeming with COVID tests, even though President Biden announced in a televised September 9 address that he was making at-home testing a major element of his plan to manage the pandemic and using the Defense Production Act to increase test availability.... So why are these at-home COVID tests still sometimes hard to find — even if you’re willing to pay the full retail price?... 

"In many Asian and European countries, at-home COVID-19 tests are cheap and easy to find in stores. CBS News reported that home antigen tests are now used routinely in the U.K., where they are free and 'readily available at pretty much every pharmacy in the country.' The situation is drastically different here.... While some foreign governments moved quickly to encourage screening and subsidize the cost of at-home tests, the Food and Drug Administration’s approval process moved much more slowly. The FDA said it needed to ensure that the tests were accurate, but many scientists countered that the agency was letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Rapid tests can quickly identify around 98 percent of infectious COVID cases; they’re not as sensitive as PCR tests, which can catch even noninfectious cases but need to be sent to a lab for processing.... 

"Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina, who has been one of the most vocal proponents for mass testing throughout the pandemic, argued that U.S. officials focused too much on the accuracy of rapid antigen tests versus PCR tests, which obscured the former’s tremendous value. 'If the target is infectious people — which is really the most important public-health target — then these [rapid antigen] tests become extremely accurate,” 'Mina told Intelligencer in December 2020. “And that’s the issue — we shouldn’t be using a medical target, we should be using a public-health target. If they are being used for medical diagnostic purposes, they might not be as accurate as you would like, but as a public-health tool, they’re very accurate.'

"Due to these regulatory and messaging hurdles, the market for at-home antigen tests has been slow to develop in the U.S. For much of the last year, Americans couldn’t obtain the pricey tests, and their diagnostic value wasn’t clear to the public. Demand for the tests dropped even further in the spring of 2021, when ... the CDC said vaccinated people did not need to get tested if they were asymptomatic, even if they’d been exposed to someone who was COVID-positive.... Thus, when the Delta variant, breakthrough cases, and people returning to work and school drove up demand for at-home testing ... the U.S. was unprepared, and stores couldn’t keep the tests in stock....

"In September, the Biden administration responded with a new push toward making rapid tests more accessible and affordable, saying it would invoke the Defense Production Act and spend another $2 billion on about 280 million rapid tests.... However, the tests remained in short supply over the coming weeks, prompting the White House to announce on October 1 that it would invest an additional $1.2 billion to obtain millions more rapid tests from Abbott and Celltrion. In addition to ramping up production of tests already on the market, the government is also working to speed up the approval process. On ... October 25, the Department of Health and Human Services announced that the FDA will streamline its authorization process, and the National Institutes of Health will spend $70 million on a new program to 'establish an accelerated pathway' to aid test makers seeking approval for their products.... 

"In early December, President Biden announced plans to ramp up at-home testing by ensuring that the tests will be essentially free for Americans with health insurance, as part of a broader plan to combat emerging variants. (The Department of Health and Human Services will release formal guidance by January 15.) 'More than 150 million Americans on private health insurance will be able to submit receipts for at-home tests directly to their health insurance plans,' Jeff Zients, the White House COVID-19 coordinator, said. 'They can go to their local pharmacy, they can order online and then get reimbursed.' For those who don’t have health insurance, there will ostensibly be 'thousands of locations' such as clinics, health centers, and pharmacies where COVID-19 test kits are available for pickup.

"When White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki was asked at a press briefing on December 6 about why they administration chose such a complicated route for making free at-home tests more widely available, she gave a glib response, asking 'Should we just send one to every American?' In other, albeit much smaller, countries the government does mail out free tests. An anonymous HHS official also offered Politico an illogical answer on whether there’s much demand in America for at-home rapid tests. 'The primary channel people are getting tested isn’t at home,' the HHS spokesperson said. 'Samples are taken primarily at pharmacies and health care providers... [A]nother anonymous senior administration official offered a defensive response on why the U.S. does not have a clearer and more consistently available testing system.... 'Our pathway is multiple paths for people to get free tests. It’s less of the single, easy-to-grasp solution that people on Twitter like to hold up as a model'....

"Zients said the Biden administration’s latest $1.2 billion investment would quadruple the number of rapid tests available in the U.S. in the following weeks. That means that sometime in December, American consumers should have access to 200 million rapid at-home tests per month.... Still, in the U.S., at-home COVID testing may never be as cheap or as widespread as it is in places like the U.K. Dr. Michael Mina told NPR in October that while he’s happy to see the Biden administration devoting more resources toward rapid testing, 'it’s not enough, and it’s not fast enough. America is so far behind our peer nations.'"

Read more: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/at-home-covid-tests-accuracy-supply-issues.html

Photo: Decky, UK Covid home testing kit, 2020. CC BY-SA 4.0Wikimedia Commons.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Ex-adviser writes book on Trump and the virus

A President Betrayed by Bureaucrats: Scott Atlas’s Masterpiece on the Covid Disaster | Brownstone Institute - Jeffrey A. Tucker:

November 27, 2021 - "I’m a voracious reader of Covid books but nothing could have prepared me for Scott Atlas’s A Plague Upon Our House, a full and mind-blowing account of the famed scientist’s personal experience with the Covid era and a luridly detailed account of his time at the White House. The book is hot fire, from page one to the last, and will permanently affect your view of not only this pandemic and the policy response but also the workings of public health in general. 

"Atlas’s book has exposed a scandal for the ages. It is enormously valuable because it fully blows up what seems to be an emerging fake story involving a supposedly Covid-denying president who did nothing vs. heroic scientists in the White House who urged compulsory mitigating measures consistent with prevailing scientific opinion. Not one word of that is true. Atlas’s book, I hope, makes it impossible to tell such tall tales without embarrassment. Anyone who tells you this fictional story (including Deborah Birx) deserves to have this highly credible treatise tossed in his direction.... 

"Throughout the book, Atlas points to the enormous cost of the machinery of lockdowns, the preferred method of Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx: missed cancer screenings, missed surgeries, nearly two years of educational losses, bankrupted small business, depression and drug overdoses, overall citizen demoralization, violations of religious freedom, all while public health massively neglected the actual at-risk population in long-term care facilities. Essentially, they were willing to dismantle everything we called civilization in the name of bludgeoning one pathogen without regard to the consequences. 

"The fake science of population-wide 'models' drove policy instead of following the known information about risk profiles. 'The one unusual feature of this virus was the fact that children had an extraordinarily low risk,' writes Atlas. 'Yet this positive and reassuring news was never emphasized. Instead, with total disregard of the evidence of selective risk consistent with other respiratory viruses, public health officials recommended draconian isolation of everyone.'

"'Restrictions on liberty were also destructive by inflaming class distinctions with their differential impact,' he writes, 'exposing essential workers, sacrificing low-income families and kids, destroying single-parent homes, and eviscerating small businesses, while at the same time large companies were bailed out, elites worked from home with barely an interruption, and the ultra-rich got richer, leveraging their bully pulpit to demonize and cancel those who challenged their preferred policy options.'

"In the midst of continued chaos, in August 2020, Atlas was called by Trump to help, not as a political appointee, not as a PR man for Trump, not as a DC fixer but as the only person who in nearly a year of unfolding catastrophe had a health-policy focus. He made it clear from the outset that he would only say what he believed to be true; Trump agreed that this was precisely what he wanted and needed. Trump got an earful and gradually came around to a more rational view than that which caused him to wreck the American economy and society with his own hands and against his own instincts. 

"In Task Force meetings, Atlas was the only person who showed up with studies and on-the-ground information as opposed to mere charts of infections easily downloadable from popular websites. 'A bigger surprise was that Fauci did not present scientific research on the pandemic to the group that I witnessed. Likewise, I never heard him speak about his own critical analysis of any published research studies. This was stunning to me'.... 

"When Atlas spoke up, it was almost always to contradict Fauci/Birx but he received no backing during meetings, only to have many people in attendance later congratulate him for speaking out. Still, he did, by virtue of private meetings, have a convert in Trump himself, but by then it was too late: not even Trump could prevail against the wicked machine he had permissioned into operation.... 

"When Atlas would raise doubts about Birx, Jared Kushner would repeatedly assure him that 'she is 100% MAGA.' Yet we know for certain that this is not true. We know from a different book on the subject that she only took the position with the anticipation that Trump would lose the presidency in the November election....

"[O]n March 12, 2020 ... President Trump spoke to the nation and announced that there would be no more travel from Europe.... A day later (March 13), the HHS distributed its lockdown plans for the nation. That weekend, Trump met for many hours with Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, son-in-law Jared Kushner, and only a few others. He came around to the idea of shutting down the American economy for two weeks. He presided over the calamitous March 16, 2020, press conference, at which Trump promised to beat the virus through general lockdowns. Of course he had no power to do that directly but he could urge it to happen, all under the completely delusional promise that doing so would solve the virus problem. Two weeks later, the same gang persuaded him to extend the lockdowns. 

"Trump went along with the advice because it was the only advice he was fed at the time. They made it appear that the only choice that Trump had – if he wanted to beat the virus – was to wage war on his own policies that were pushing for a stronger, healthier economy.... Atlas writes: 'On this highly important criterion of presidential management — taking responsibility to fully take charge of policy coming from the White House — I believe the president made a massive error in judgment. Against his own gut feeling, he delegated authority to medical bureaucrats, and then he failed to correct that mistake.' The ... fact that both Republicans and Democrats do not want spoken about is that this whole calamity ... did indeed begin with Trump’s decision.....

"I was particularly struck by his chapter on testing, mainly because that whole racket mystified me throughout. From the outset, the CDC bungled the testing part of the pandemic story.... Once that was finally fixed, months too late, mass and indiscriminate PCR testing became the desiderata of success within the White House. The problem was not just with the testing method:

Fragments of dead virus hang around and can generate a positive test for many weeks or months, even though one is not generally contagious after two weeks. Moreover, PCR is extremely sensitive. It detects minute quantities of virus that do not transmit infection…. Even the New York Times wrote in August that 90 percent or more of positive PCR tests falsely implied that someone was contagious. Sadly, during my entire time at the White House, this crucial fact would never even be addressed by anyone other than me at the Task Force meetings, let alone because for any public recommendation, even after I distributed data proving this critical point.

"The other problem is the wide assumption that more testing (however inaccurate) of whomever, whenever was always better.... Early on, Fauci had clearly said that there was no reason to get tested if you had no symptoms. Later, that common-sense outlook was thrown out the window and replaced with an agenda to test as many people as possible regardless of risk and regardless of symptoms. The resulting data enabled Fauci/Birx to keep everyone in a constant state of alarm. More test positivity to them implied only one thing: more lockdowns.... That assumption became so entrenched that not even the president’s own wishes (which had changed from Spring to Summer) made any difference. 

"Atlas’s first job, then, was to challenge this whole indiscriminate testing agenda. To his mind, testing needed to be about more than accumulating endless amounts of data, much of it without meaning; instead, testing should be directed toward a public-health goal. The people who needed tests were the vulnerable populations, particularly those in nursing homes, with the goal of saving lives among those who were actually threatened with severe outcomes. This push to test, contact trace, and quarantine anyone and everyone regardless of known risk was a huge distraction, and also caused huge disruption in schooling and enterprise. 

"To fix it meant changing the CDC guidelines. Atlas’s story of attempting to do that is eye-opening. He wrestled with every manner of bureaucrat and managed to get new guidelines written, only to find that they had been mysteriously reverted to the old guidelines one week later. He caught the “error” and insisted that his version prevail. Once they were issued by the CDC, the national press was all over it, with the story that the White House was pressuring the scientists at the CDC in terrible ways. After a week-long media storm, the guidelines changed yet again. All of Atlas’s work was made null.... 

"It was this way throughout the lockdown period, a machinery in place to implement, encourage, and enforce endless restrictions but no one person in particular was there to take responsibility for the policies or the outcomes, even as the ostensible head of state (Trump) was on record both publicly and privately opposing the policies that no one could seem to stop. 

"As an example of this, Atlas tells the story of bringing some massively important scientists to the White House to speak with Trump: Martin Kulldorff, Jay Bhattacharya, Joseph Ladapo, and Cody Meissner. People around the president thought the idea was great. But somehow the meeting kept being delayed. Again and again. When it finally went ahead, the schedulers only allowed for 5 minutes. But once they met with Trump himself, the president had other ideas and prolonged the meeting for an hour and a half, asking the scientists all kinds of questions about viruses, policy, the initial lockdowns, the risks to individuals, and so on. The president was so impressed with their views and knowledge – what a dramatic change that must have been for him – that he invited filming to be done plus pictures to be taken. He wanted to make it a big public splash. It never happened. Literally. White House press somehow got the message that this meeting never happened. The first anyone will have known about it other than White House employees is from Atlas’s book.... 

"I can’t possibly cover the wealth of material in this book, and I expect this brief review to be one of several that I write. I do have a few disagreements. First, I think the author is too uncritical toward Operation Warp Speed and doesn’t really address how the vaccines were wildly oversold, to say nothing of growing concerns about safety, which were not addressed in the trials. Second, he seems to approve of Trump’s March 12th travel restrictions, which struck me as brutal and pointless, and the real beginning of the unfolding disaster. Third, Atlas inadvertently seems to perpetuate the distortion that Trump recommended ingesting bleach during a press conference. I know that this was all over the papers. But I’ve read the transcript of that press conference several times and find nothing like this. Trump actually makes clear that he was speaking about cleaning surfaces. This might be yet another case of outright media lies. 

"All that aside, this book reveals everything about the insanity of 2020 and 2021, years in which good sense, good science, historical precedent, human rights, and concerns for human liberty were all thrown into the trash, not just in the US but all over the world....

"Atlas experienced the slings, arrows, and worse. The media and the bureaucrats tried to shut him up, shut him down, and body bag him professionally and personally. Cancelled, meaning removed from the roster of functional, dignified human beings. Even colleagues at Stanford University joined in the lynch mob, much to their disgrace. And yet this book is that of a man who has prevailed against them. 

"In that sense, this book is easily the most crucial first-person account we have so far. It is gripping, revealing, devastating for the lockdowners and their vaccine-mandating successors, and a true classic that will stand the test of time. It’s simply not possible to write the history of this disaster without a close examination of this erudite first-hand account."

Read more: https://brownstone.org/articles/a-president-betrayed-by-bureaucrats-scott-atlass-masterpiece-on-the-covid-disaster/

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.


A Plague Upon Our House at Amazon.com.

Sunday, February 7, 2021

WHO tightens guidelines on use of PCR tests

Appropriate use of PCR needed for a focused response to the pandemic | The Hill - Tom Nicholson & Jay Bhattacharya:

January 29, 2021 - "On January 13, 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a little-noticed technical report that calls into question many of the policies that we have adopted to control the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. At the heart of all the data on COVID-19 cases is the reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, which can detect the virus in nasal swabs. The test is used, sensibly, to guide medical treatment for patients who display COVID-19 symptoms. Less sensibly, it is often used to identify people with no symptoms at all as positive 'cases' and impose long quarantine periods on them.

"The WHO’s guidance on the RT-PCR test emphasizes two things that have long been known in the scientific literature and public health practice but inexplicably ignored in COVID policy for almost a year. First, they point out that a positive COVID test does not necessarily mean that someone has any capacity of infecting someone else with the virus. Therefore, it instructs laboratories to report a key statistic that indicates how likely a positive test result actually constitutes infectious COVID-19. And second, the WHO warns against relying on a single test for patients without clinical COVID-19 symptoms....

"[T]he PCR test is not designed to identify active infectious disease but rather genetic material (dead, alive or partial) from the virus. PCR amplifies this material in samples to find traces of COVID-19, so while it often identifies people with active, infectious disease, it can also indicate people as 'positive' erroneously. Dead COVID-19 RNA in the nose or mouth of someone who was never sick could create a positive PCR result. Recovered patients who test negative and are non-infectious can still come up positive repeatedly in the following months. These are neither new cases nor infectious ones needing quarantine but could be incorrectly counted as such.

"Multiple studies show that the number of amplification or duplication 'cycles' performed via PCR to amplify the sample has a relationship with infectiousness — at a certain point, the more cycles needed to get positivity from a sample the generally less viral replication the sample shows. An article in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases found that among positive PCR samples with a cycle count over 35 – a common lab occurrence – only 3 percent of samples showed viral replication. Simply put, the cycle number next to the test is associated with the chances of infectiousness and should be available to the patient and the public. Thankfully, the WHO now explicitly recommends this.

"Setting aside the critical issue of purely false positives from contamination, reporting errors and lab deficiencies, there are many dangers of these 'weak' positive diagnoses (as the WHO terms them), which can waste resources and upend a family’s life. Among the harms include the obvious financial harm from needless isolation, social harm from misdirected public resources and psychological harm stemming from a positive diagnosis of COVID, and the stigma associated with it. And since the falsely identified 'case' is not actually infectious, there is no corresponding benefit in slowing disease spread by a forced quarantine period for the person and their contacts.

"Dr. Anthony Fauci himself told This Week in Virology in July, 'If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more ... the chances of it being replication-competent are minuscule.' Why then has our national testing standard never reflected this? PCR providers should work with other labs to perform a random viral culture on those who received positive results, to validate their tests in terms of being an indicator of infectiousness. Other states should emulate Florida in requiring laboratories to report cycle times to providers and to public health officials so they can provide better advice to patients and make more nuanced decisions about mandatory quarantine orders.

"The WHO’s second recommendation makes good sense as well. When the PCR test reports a weakly positive signal – a sample that requires so many amplification cycles that the likelihood of an infectious sample is unlikely – there should be an additional test conducted on the same patient before any determination by either clinicians or public health officials about COVID-19 infection is made.

"There are two possibilities indicated by a weak positive test. First, the patient is in the early stages of infection and the number of copies of the virus is growing. In that case, a second test, with a sample drawn 24 hours later, should produce a stronger positive signal. Second, if the patient is not infectious, a second test will register either the same weak positive signal or a negative signal. We can thus overcome the limitations of false positivity by repeat testing ... not exclusively relying on single PCR results, by combining results with symptom information for clinical decision-making, and considering risk factors."

Read more: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/536539-appropriate-use-of-pcr-needed-for-a-focused-response-to-pandemic

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Guess who wants to reopen his state?

Andrew Cuomo Makes an Infuriating Declaration for Those Living in His COVID-19 Dystopia | PJ Media - Stacey Lennox:

January 11, 2021 - "Governor Andrew Cuomo delivered his annual State of the State address on Monday. He has overseen some of the most draconian COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions in the country. Some of his more chilling moves were threatening to close churches and synagogues, yanking the licenses of business owners who defied his ridiculous orders, and covering up his own culpability in forcing COVID-19-positive patients into nursing homes. More recently, he has led what might be the most botched vaccine rollout in the country. Originally he had set strict rules about who would have priority to receive the vaccine, and threatened to levy fines of up to $1 million if a healthcare provider gave it outside of his specified hierarchy. When doses, which have a short shelf life, expired, they were thrown in the trash.

"Meanwhile, businesses are dying in the state, especially in New York City. As of August, the New York Times reported that up to one-third of the state’s small businesses were closing for good. In-person schooling has been an on-and-off affair thanks to the teachers’ unions insisting on a ridiculous 3% positivity rate to trigger closings.... Supposedly, according to Cuomo and many others, the vaccine was going to save us all, and everyone could get back to normal when a sufficient number of people were vaccinated. That was before the Electoral College vote was certified.

"Today he said: 'We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy, but we must do it smartly and safely'.... I predict he will be the first of many lockdown governors to say this.

"Here’s how I think things will go: Joe Biden will be inaugurated in nine days and make some proclamations about how he will defeat COVID-19 in the next 100 days. A national mask mandate and some other useless moves, like another “30 Days to Slow the Spread,” will be announced.

"During that time, the National Center for Health Statistics will change the way COVID-19 deaths are reported to mirror how influenza deaths are tracked. This will cause the death rate to fall. The cycle threshold on the PCR tests will be lowered to indicate active illness and the ability to transmit the disease. According to a New York Times analysis in August and a study by Jaafar et al., this means positive tests will gradually fall to about 10% of what we see now.

"I predict it will be underreported and ignored that states that ignore the national mandates, like Florida and South Dakota, will fare just as well, if not better. Governor Ron DeSantis has already said he will not lock Florida down again and Governor Kristi Noem has said she would not enforce any national COVID-19 mandate. Other governors whose states are open, like Georgia and Tennessee, will face backlash if they follow the mandates.

"Then Cuomo and the other governors — who did the Democrats’ bidding by crushing their economies and keeping people isolated and miserable and blaming it on President Trump — will get their due. Remember how Mitch McConnell and President Trump said they were not bailing out years of mismanagement in states like New York, California, and Illinois?.... With complete Democrat control in Washington, leaders in the state are looking for that bailout with renewed hope. In his speech, Cuomo said: 'Washington has savaged us for four years.... We expect basic fairness from Washington. Finally'....

"New York ... got the same resources from the federal government to manage the pandemic that are available to every state. Cuomo’s projected deficit comes from decreased tax revenue from business closures, people fleeing the state in record numbers, and unbridled spending. New York’s budget for 2020 was $177 billion. Florida, with a similar and slightly larger population, spent $93.2 billion.

"Cuomo is sure his deficit problems are solved now so he can 'safely' open. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will pay off New York’s debts with our tax dollars and higher inflation caused by the additional money we will print. That’s just  'fair,' according to Governor Cuomo. You have to wonder how the New York business owners and parents whose children have lost nearly a year of education will view it."

Read more: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2021/01/11/andrew-cuomo-makes-an-infuriating-declaration-for-those-living-in-his-covid-19-dystopia-n1331601

Sunday, December 27, 2020

A libertarian pandemic response

Libertarianism and the Coronavirus Pandemic | Cato @ Liberty - Andy Craig:

March 25, 2020 - In recent days, there has been snark from some quarters about the current crisis somehow catching libertarians flat‐​footed. The argument goes that the need for a big government response disproves a political ideology that is often, though in somewhat oversimplified fashion, summarized as favoring 'small government." A better description would be a government limited in scope but sufficient to meet that scope.

Libertarianism, properly understood, encompasses certain core functions as the proper role of government. It is not the libertarian view that government should be ineffective at protecting individual rights or dysfunctionally paralyzed in the face of a massive threat to people’s lives. Government has a role to play in responding to the pandemic in much the same way it is the government’s job to prosecute murderers or defend the country from invasion.

At the same time, libertarian principles and insights can provide some guideposts for how to respond in this unprecedented global emergency.

One thing to keep in mind is that some limits on government power are even more crucial now. Emergency powers should be limited in duration and limited to directly addressing the present situation based on the facts as best we know them. Such policy responses shouldn’t be larded up with a pre‐​existing wish list of unrelated concerns. It is essential to preserve constitutional liberal democracy and resist excessive long‐​term concentration of power in the executive.

Social distancing measures should rely on voluntary compliance to the greatest degree possible, and most people have been voluntarily complying. Even when enforcement is necessary, simply breaking up gatherings without citation or prosecution is possible and preferable in many cases. A heavy‐​handed reliance on coercive enforcement might not only be unnecessary in some regards, it can also backfire by sparking protest non‐​compliance, and it might also be redundant to all the other measures already in place.... For that reason, some states have so far rejected compulsory "stay at home" or "shelter in place" orders. There is no need to fuel further panic or distract police from their more important duties to worry about safe and benign activities like taking the family dog for a walk.

At the same time, many jurisdictions have moved to suspend petty arrests altogether, mostly for victimless crimes, in an effort to reduce jail populations. Also under consideration are proposals to release many of those individuals currently in jail awaiting trial for minor offenses. This is a welcome shift that should prompt us to reconsider the necessity of some of these laws, many of which have long been the target of libertarian ire.

Another insight comes from Nobel laureate, libertarian icon, and Cato Distinguished Senior Fellow, the late F.A. Hayek. In works such as The Constitution of Liberty, he wrote that good laws should be general, equal, and certain. That is a principle that is relevant even in something as far removed from the libertarian ideal as the emergency economic responses currently under consideration. Rather than targeted industry bailouts and micro‐​managed interventions, policy responses should be clear, simple, system‐​wide, and with a defined end date as soon as possible. Simple universal payments to individuals are also preferable to corporate bailouts. It is not feasible for the government to abruptly order massive shutdowns of so much economic activity without some kind of compensation, in much the same way we require just compensation for eminent domain. It is proper for the government to own the consequences of its orders and to soften the shock of this sudden disruption....

Libertarian criticisms of bad regulations have proven especially prescient. A crucial government failure has been the FDA’s [Food and Drug Administration's] inflexible and heavy‐​handed bureaucracy, which has held up tests and prevented thousands of private and academic labs from quickly increasing testing capacity. For most of February, the FDA required everybody to rely solely on tests produced by the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] and refused to grant permission to other labs. This proved to be catastrophically flawed when the first round of tests produced by the CDC didn’t work and had to be replaced. This failure is a large part of why America’s coronavirus testing response to date compares so unfavorably with South Korea’s.

Another example of a libertarian response to the pandemic has been the quick need to suspend many occupational licensing restrictions, such as by letting doctors practice interstate and upgrading the permissions of nurse practitioners and doctors’ assistants. Even mundane and trivial regulations of the sort that only libertarians would have worried about before have suddenly been cast aside. Two months ago, who would have thought it an urgent concern to suspend alcohol regulations so that restaurants can serve beverages to go for home delivery by rideshare drivers?

While we can welcome these wins, there is no doubt that we have also seen extreme impositions on personal freedom. Libertarians can find that loss especially painful. Even when these new rules are sadly necessary and justified by the facts, it is a cost we should carefully weigh as we eventually move to unwind restrictions and return to some kind of normalcy. In the name of saving lives from the immediate threat, governments around the world have suspended most international travel and heavily curtailed consumer freedoms and freedom of association. The acute loss of freedoms we’ve long taken for granted underscores how valuable they truly are. And some freedoms, like freedom of speech and the right to privacy, should remain sacrosanct and defended tenaciously even in the face of an emergency.

While much of the policy response so far has been in good faith (if often inept), the propensity for power grabs by authoritarian populists should not be discounted. Preserving the rule of law, checks and balances, and constitutional liberal democracy is essential. Elections should proceed on time and with whatever accommodations prove necessary. Legislatures and courts should be kept open for essential business, including by remote participation if necessary, and foundational constitutional structures should remain in place. We have no need of a dictator in the United States nor in other countries around the world.

And perhaps most importantly: emergency rules and powers should extend only for the duration of the emergency, and be repealed at the earliest feasible opportunity. We should be wary of the ratchet effect, where governments tend to retain powers and keep open programs long after their original justification has disappeared.

Freedom is precious, and in the grand sweep of human history it has often been fleeting and tenuous. Right now we are facing the greatest threat to a free and open society that most of us have ever witnessed, at least in the United States, if not in many other nations that have been through worse scourges of totalitarianism and major wars. So libertarians will continue as they always have, ready to defend the principles of human freedom at every turn."

https://www.cato.org/blog/libertarianism-coronavirus-pandemic


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Friday, December 11, 2020

Hundreds in UK given wrong Covid test results

Hundreds get wrong results due to Covid test error | BBC News:

November 27, 2020 - "Hundreds of people have been wrongly told they have coronavirus by NHS Test and Trace after a laboratory error. More than 1,300 people who gave samples between 19 and 23 November received positive results, when the tests were actually void. All of those affected will be told to take another test, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said.

"Duncan Larcombe, whose daughter received the wrong result, said it was 'more than an inconvenient mistake'. The PR company director, from Maidstone, Kent, said his two children, aged 14 and nine, were both sent home from school to self-isolate and he was unable to work. He said his 14-year-old daughter had not left her bedroom for four days, with meals being left outside her door, until the family learned the result was void on Thursday.... 

"Mr Larcombe, a former royal editor at the Sun newspaper, said the mistake 'brings into question for me whether or not this testing system is competent. 'The entire economy is relying on the competence of the testing laboratories and if they are not doing their job they need to be held to account,' he said.

"DHSC said it was an 'isolated incident' caused by an 'issue with a batch of testing chemicals' which had affected tests taken across the UK. It is 'being fully investigated to ensure this does not happen again,' the department said....

"Asked if the 1,311 incorrect results would affect regional figures for infection rates, which are represented as the number of cases per 100,000 people, DHSC issued a statement saying: 'Any impact on regional figures would be minimal, but in any event this incident was taken into account when the tiering discussions took place.'"

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-55107272

Sunday, October 25, 2020

How Iceland beat the coronavirus (for now)

 How Iceland Beat the Coronavirus | The New Yorker - Elizabeth Kolbert:

June 1, 2020 - "On the morning of Friday, February 28th, Ævar Pálmi Pálmason, a detective with the Reykjavík police department, was summoned by his boss. Iceland did not yet have a confirmed case of covid-19, but the country’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management wanted to be prepared....'We were just talking' ... Pálmason recalled. 'And then, two hours later, we got the call.' A man who’d recently been skiing in the Dolomites had become the country’s first known coronavirus patient....

"Anyone who’d spent more than fifteen minutes near the man in the days before he’d experienced his first symptoms was considered potentially infected. ('Near' was defined as within a radius of two metres, or just over six feet.) [Pálmason's] team came up with a list of fifty-six names. By midnight, all fifty-six contacts had been located and ordered to quarantine themselves for fourteen days.

"The first case was followed by three more cases, then by six, and then by an onslaught. By mid-March, confirmed covid cases in Iceland were increasing at a rate of sixty, seventy, even a hundred a day. As a proportion of the country’s population, this was far faster than the rate at which cases in the United States were growing. The number of people the tracing team was tracking down, meanwhile, was rising even more quickly.... All were sent into quarantine.... If you were returning to Iceland from overseas, you also got a call: put yourself in quarantine. At the same time, the country was aggressively testing for the virus — on a per-capita basis, at the highest rate in the world.

"Iceland never imposed a lockdown. Only a few types of businesses — night clubs and hair salons, for example — were ever ordered closed. Hardly anyone in Reykjavík wears a mask. And yet, by mid-May, when I went to talk to Pálmason, the tracing team had almost no one left to track. During the previous week, in all of Iceland, only two new coronavirus cases had been confirmed. The country hadn’t just managed to flatten the curve; it had, it seemed, virtually eliminated it....

"Iceland, which has three hundred and sixty-five thousand residents — about half the population of Denver — is a famously tight-knit country. Almost everyone, quite literally, is related to everyone else, and if two people want to know how exactly their families are intertwined they can consult a genealogy database run by an Icelandic biotech firm called deCODE Genetics. Iceland was able to test so many people because, at the height of the outbreak, deCODE turned its state-of-the-art facilities over to screening for the virus.... Iceland’s university hospital was already testing people who had symptoms of covid-19. But by testing people who had no symptoms, or only very mild ones, deCODE picked up many cases that otherwise would have been missed. These cases, too, were referred to the tracing team. By May 17th, Iceland had tested 15.5 per cent of its population for the virus. In the U.S., the figure was 3.4 per cent.

"Meanwhile, deCODE was also sequencing the virus from every Icelander whose test had come back positive. As the virus is passed from person to person, it picks up random mutations. By analyzing these, geneticists can map the disease’s spread.... By sequencing the virus from every person infected, researchers at deCODE could also make inferences about how it had spread. 'One of the very interesting things is that, in all our data, there are only two examples where a child infected a parent,' [deCODE head Kári] Stefánsson told me. 'But there are lots of examples where parents infected children.'

"[W]hen I asked Stefánsson about the Icelandic government’s response to covid-19, he had only kind words. 'This was done in an extremely balanced way,' he said at one point. 'And I think the authorities did pretty much everything right.' At another point, he told me, 'The remarkable thing in this whole affair is that in Iceland it has been run entirely by the public-health authorities. They came up with the plan, and they just instituted it. And we were fortunate that our politicians managed to control themselves.'"

Read more: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

PCR tests exaggerating COVID-19 case counts

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be | New York Times - By Apoorva Mandavilli:

Sept. 8, 2020 - "Some of the nation’s leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over coronavirus testing in the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus. Most of these people are not likely to be contagious, and identifying them may contribute to bottlenecks that prevent those who are contagious from being found in time....

"The most widely used diagnostic test for the new coronavirus, called a PCR test, provides a simple yes-no answer to the question of whether a patient is infected.... The PCR test amplifies genetic matter from the virus in cycles; the fewer cycles required, the greater the amount of virus, or viral load, in the sample. The greater the viral load, the more likely the patient is to be contagious. This number of amplification cycles needed to find the virus, called the cycle threshold, is never included in the results sent to doctors and coronavirus patients, although it could tell them how infectious the patients are.

"In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found. On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases.... If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.

"One solution would be to adjust the cycle threshold used now to decide that a patient is infected. Most tests set the limit at 40, a few at 37. This means that you are positive for the coronavirus if the test process required up to 40 cycles, or 37, to detect the virus. Tests with thresholds so high may detect not just live virus but also genetic fragments, leftovers from infection that pose no particular risk — akin to finding a hair in a room long after a person has left, Dr. [Michael] Mina [an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health] said.

"Any test with a cycle threshold above 35 is too sensitive, agreed Juliet Morrison, a virologist at the University of California, Riverside.... A more reasonable cutoff would be 30 to 35, she added. Dr. Mina said he would set the figure at 30, or even less. Those changes would mean the amount of genetic material in a patient’s sample would have to be 100-fold to 1,000-fold that of the current standard for the test to return a positive result .... The C.D.C.’s own calculations suggest that it is extremely difficult to detect any live virus in a sample above a threshold of 33 cycles.... 

"Officials at the Wadsworth Center, New York’s state lab, [have] identified 872 positive tests, based on a threshold of 40 cycles. With a cutoff of 35, about 43 percent of those tests would no longer qualify as positive. About 63 percent would no longer be judged positive if the cycles were limited to 30. In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. 'I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,' he said....

"The F.D.A. noted that people may have a low viral load when they are newly infected. A test with less sensitivity would miss these infections. But that problem is easily solved, Dr. Mina said: 'Test them again, six hours later or 15 hours later or whatever,' he said. A rapid test would find these patients quickly, even if it were less sensitive, because their viral loads would quickly rise....

"Highly sensitive PCR tests seemed like the best option for tracking the coronavirus at the start of the pandemic. But for the outbreaks raging now, he said, what’s needed are coronavirus tests that are fast, cheap and abundant enough to frequently test everyone who needs it — even if the tests are less sensitive. 'It might not catch every last one of the transmitting people, but it sure will catch the most transmissible people, including the superspreaders,' Dr. Mina said. 'That alone would drive epidemics practically to zero.'"

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Sunday, May 24, 2020

CDC drops the ball on COVID-19 testing again

The CDC Is Still Botching the Coronavirus Testing Process | Reason - Peter Suderman:

May 22, 2020 - "Over and over again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have bungled the response to COVID-19. The agency is supposed to stand at the forefront of the federal government's defense against pandemics, but in the effort to track, identify, and slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, it has repeatedly proven that it's not up to the task.

"The agency publishes statistics purporting to show the number of Americans tested, and the number of positive and negative results. In theory, this should provide a clear snapshot of both the spread of the virus and the number of people who have been tested. Yet as The Atlantic reported yesterday, the agency has been conflating the results of two very different tests: viral tests, which determine if an individual is sick right now, and antibody tests, which are designed to reveal whether an individual has ever been exposed to the pathogen. This makes it impossible to determine the true spread of the virus at any given moment....

'It isn't the first such error the CDC has made. At nearly every stage of the crisis, the agency has botched the job in small and large ways that continue to cripple our response....

"Early in February, the agency misreported the results from mislabeled test samples taken from a group of individuals who were being quarantined at a San Diego military base after being evacuated from Wuhan, China, where the virus originated. The CDC initially informed the group that, following testing, everyone was negative for the virus. But after the mislabeling was discovered, it turned out that one woman had tested positive....

'A far more consequential error also occurred in February, when the agency botched the development of the first batch of test kits that states were supposed to use to begin the testing process. The CDC had already declined to use a German test backed by the World Health Organization, preferring to create its own, as is typical for the agency. This cost several weeks during the time when the virus was just beginning to spread in the U.S. And when the CDC did send out test kits to states, the majority of those kits delivered faulty results....

"Only when the testing process was turned over to the private sector was it put back on track.... Eventually, an agency spokesperson admitted that the agency 'did not manufacture its test consistent with its own protocol'....

"Months later, as reporting snafus make clear, the CDC is still making easily avoidable mistakes. And they are still costing us time we do not have.

"The CDC is not alone in its errors. Several states have been blending their test results as well, rendering it difficult to determine the local impact of the virus. But the CDC's role as the officially designated first line of defense makes the agency's failure far more significant. Without clear, reliable, and accurate reporting from the CDC, it becomes nearly impossible to take stock of the pandemic's damage."

Read more: https://reason.com/2020/05/22/the-cdc-is-still-botching-the-coronavirus-testing-process/

Saturday, May 9, 2020

How South Korea beat COVID-19 - for now

Coronavirus and South Korea: How lives changed to beat the virus | BBC World News:

April 30, 2020 - "South Korea has recorded its first day with no locally transmitted cases of Covid-19 since the middle of February. It did record four new cases, but all were people coming from abroad, who were diagnosed and isolated on arrival. They brought the country's total number of confirmed cases to 10,765 [and  total deaths to 256, as of May 8 - gd]. It's a major milestone for a country that was once among the world's biggest virus hotspots, but it comes after significant efforts - and remarkably, without a total lockdown.

"South Korea saw a huge spike in the number of infections in February, after a religious group in the city of Daegu was identified as a virus cluster ... and thousands of cases were later linked back to the church. The government reacted by launching a massive testing campaign. As part of making tests freely available, drive-through clinics were set up throughout the country.... The huge number of tests meant South Korea's infection numbers grew quickly, but also that authorities were able early on to effectively find those who were infected, isolate and treat them.

"South Korea also started aggressively contact tracing, finding people who had interacted with a confirmed case, isolating and testing them too. When someone tested positive, authorities would send out an alert to those living or working nearby. People soon got used to receiving a flurry of these messages from authorities.

"All churches in South Korea were advised to shut as officials fought to rein in public gatherings. Today, churches have reopened, but worshippers are still required to keep a distance and keep their masks on. And those rules also applied to ... students ... sitting for their exams last week - making sure there's no chance of contact (and even less of a chance of cheating).

"Lunch is no longer a time for socialising and catching up with friends at ... company cafeteria[s] in South Korea. Protective screens have been put up and staggered lunch breaks introduced to keep people apart. However, it's not clear if all restaurants and cafes are adhering to such strict rules - though South Koreans have still been told to practice social distancing. People are out and about on the streets, but having to get their temperature taken before being let into events or buildings.

"But it was an election earlier this month that really tested South Korea's capacity to contain the virus. Thousands lined up in front of polling stations on 15 April to vote in the National Assembly elections. They were given plastic gloves, told to stand apart, and temperatures were checked before voters entered polling stations. There were fears that the vote could cause a spike in the number of cases, but two weeks on, it's clear this hasn't happened. And the ruling party won a resounding victory, indicating public support for their handing of the crisis....

"But officials are cautious. The Korean Centre for Disease Control has said that until there is a vaccine it is inevitable that this pandemic will return."

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52482553

Friday, April 24, 2020

FDA permits first at-home COVID-19 test kits

LabCorp’s at-home COVID-19 test kit is the first to be authorized by the FDA | Techcrunch - Darrell Etherington:

April 21, 2020 - "LabCorp’s at-home COVID-19 test, which is called ‘Pixel,’ has received the first Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for such a test issued by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The test is an at-home collection kit, which provides sample collection materials including a nasal swab to the user, who then uses the included shipping package to return the sample to a lab for testing.

"Until now, the FDA has not authorized any at-home testing or sample collection kits for use, and in fact clarified its guidelines to specifically note that their use was not authorized under its guidelines when a number of startup companies debuted similar products for at-home collection and round-trip testing with labs already certified to run molecular RT-PCR tests to detect the presence of COVID-19.

"The FDA notes that only LabCorp’s COVID-19 RT-PCR test has received this authorization, and that it still requires any such test to have an EUA before they can being offering services, whether or not the test is administered at home with the help of guidance from an authorized medical professional via telemedicine. Some labs facilitating at home serology tests using an exception in the FDA guidelines, but these are not viewed by the agency as tests that can confirm a case of COVID-19.

"Opening up at-home testing (even via just sample collection, vs. full at-home test administration) is a big step in terms of a change in the way the agency has operated thus far. The FDA has recently updated its guidelines to note that it is working with at-home test providers to determine the best way to make those available to the public, since it 'sees the public health value in expanding the availability of COVID-19 testing through safe and accurate tests that may include home collection'....

Testing for COVID-19 in the U.S. currently relies on drive-through sites, as well as in-clinic and hospital testing. These tests have a high bar for access in terms of risk profile and symptom presentation, and their administration also exposes the healthcare professionals running them to risk of contracting the infection themselves. At-home testing could increase overall testing rates, while decreasing risk to frontline healthcare workers, providing a better picture of the true extent and depth of the COVID-19 pandemic."

Monday, April 13, 2020

Coronavirus testing failure in Canada, too

The country doesn't have enough testing capacity, and might never get it | CBC News - Kelly Crowe:

April 9, 2020 - "'We're ready, we're prepared.' Those were the confident words from Dr. David Williams, Ontario's chief medical officer of health in a news briefing [January 25]. The province already had a 'specific and reliable' coronavirus test that could deliver results in 24 hours.... 'Folks, it will still be business as normal,' said Peter Donnelly, head of Public Health Ontario, at the same briefing. Through the unforgiving lens of hindsight, they could not have been more wrong....

"One week after the province closed schools, shops and prohibited large gatherings [on March 17] many labs were overwhelmed. By the first weekend, Ontario had a backlog of more than 7,200 tests. B.C. also reported a backlog, as did Alberta, Quebec and Manitoba. Almost immediately, provinces began restricting who could be tested — limiting it to front-line health-care workers, people with severe symptoms and those who work with vulnerable groups.

"Over the past week, the backlogs have cleared, but restrictions on testing still remain in most parts of Canada. And ... testing will continue to be limited, even in Ontario which has just announced it will soon be able to test 19,000 people a day.... 'Even when we're at 19,000 tests a day we're not going to be able to test everybody and that would be the same in every other jurisdiction,' said Vanessa Allen, chief of medical microbiology at Public Health Ontario, the government agency responsible for provincial labs....

"Media reports on Tuesday [April 7] revealed that Ontario's testing rate was dropping to just over 2,500 per day, but the province said it could run about 13,000. Why isn't Ontario testing more?

"The Ministry of Health had the accounting firm KPMG organize all the labs in the province that are capable of microbial testing. That includes 10 hospital networks, six public health labs and three private lab networks. Added up, they can do 13,000 tests per day, and expect to reach 19,000 in three weeks. But that extra capacity was created suddenly, which means there weren't enough patient samples waiting to be tested, because there are still testing restrictions in place....

"One consequence of the low level of testing across Canada is that no one has a clear idea how big the epidemic is in this country ... said Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist with the University of Toronto. The low rate is frustrating Tuite and other epidemiologists who are trying to create models of the disease, which politicians are using to support their decisions.... Right now, the reliability of the models is affected by the under-reporting of cases. 'Until we have a consistent amount of testing in the population I think it's hard for me to say that I have confidence in those projections,' said Tuite."

Read more: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/coronavirus-covid19-testing-canada-1.5527219

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Retired doctor's struggle to get a COVID-19 test

Coronavirus: One case lays bare America's testing failure | BBC News - Aleem Maqbool:

March 25, 2020 - "Claudia Bahorik ... a retired physician ... had recently been on a trip to New York with her great niece, and soon after developed a cough and a fever, though it appeared to subside. She carried on as planned, performing jury duty, attending the funeral of a friend and travelling to Washington DC for a medical appointment.

"While she cannot be certain when she got infected, in early March, Dr Bahorik became extremely ill. 'By 9 March I was coughing so hard and I could hardly walk, and at that point I really suspected I had the coronavirus.' So began Dr Bahorik's quest to get tested....
  • 9 March.... Bahorik sees her family doctor who agrees that she should have a coronavirus test. The local health system's protocol requires that he first carry out an influenza test, a test for RSV (Respiratory Syncytial Virus), a chest X-ray and some laboratory work to rule out other possibilities....
  • 10 March... The doctor informs Claudia that while tests ruled out the other causes, Pennsylvania Department of Health did not give approval for her to get a coronavirus test. She does not meet the criteria of having known exposure to someone who had tested positive for coronavirus, or travelled to a country deemed to be high risk.... 
  • Dr Bahorik calls the Department of Health. Despite exhibiting symptoms, and given her age and previous spells of pneumonia, they were inflexible....
  • [A] nurse suggests she speak to her congressman. She calls the office of Senator Bob Casey, where she is advised to contact the Department of Health.
  • 15 March.... After several terrible days of sickness, Dr Bahorik hears of eight coronavirus testing sites in the neighbouring county ... an hour's drive ... to the test centre in Macungie, Pennsylvania. Once again she is told that because she had not travelled to a high risk country or been in known contact with someone with coronavirus, she cannot have a test.
  • "Having once been a doctor in the US Army Reserve, Dr Bahorik contacts her Veterans Affairs hospital. They later tell her that they do not have Covid-19 testing kits.
  • 17 March.... Bahorik calls back her family doctor. She is told to go to the emergency room at nearby St Joseph's Hospital, where the clinician in charge has given assurances she can get a coronavirus test. At the hospital, she has to do another flu test and RSV test [but] this time, however, ... Dr Bahorik gets a [coronavirus] test.... She is sent home with antibiotics and told to wait 3-5 days for result....
  • 23 March.... Bahorik calls the hospital to be told that the wait for test results is now 10 days because the samples were sent off to laboratories that are currently overwhelmed. She has not responded to the antibiotics, and remains ill....
"'They keep reporting that there are so few cases in my county, but they are not testing,' Dr Bahorik tells me.... Bahorik accepts that a test would do nothing to help her condition, but if she does have coronavirus she could at least definitively tell that to all of those that she came into contact with in the early days.... 'If I was carrying it then I could have infected up to 150 people.... A lot of my friends want to know the result of my test.' But nothing has yet been done to trace where she might have got her infection or to isolate those she came into contact with....

"None of the hospitals or clinics Dr Bahorik visited were prepared to talk about the specifics of her case, but we did hear from the Pennsylvania Department of Health, which had twice denied her a test on the basis she was not eligible. 'We were following established criteria from the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention),' says Dr Rachel Levine, the Pennsylvania Health Secretary."

Read more: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52019509

Saturday, April 11, 2020

The coronavirus testing failure (video)

How the CDC and the FDA Wrecked the Economy | Reason - Jacob Sullum:

April 8, 2020 - "Public officials across the United States are flying blind against the COVID-19 epidemic. Because of a government-engineered testing fiasco, they do not know how fast the virus is spreading, how many people have been infected by it, how many will die as a result, or how many have developed immunity to it. The failure to implement early and wide testing, which was caused by a combination of short-sightedness, ineptitude, and bureaucratic intransigence, left politicians scrambling to avoid a hospital crisis by imposing broad business closure and stay-at-home orders....

"At first, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) monopolized COVID-19 tests. When the CDC began shipping test kits to state laboratories in early February, they turned out to be defective.

"The CDC and the Food and Drug Administration initially blocked efforts by universities and businesses to develop and conduct tests before relaxing the restrictions ... [and] the CDC set irrationally narrow criteria for testing, which meant that carriers without severe symptoms or obvious risk factors escaped detection.

"The CDC still insists that 'not everyone needs to be tested for COVID-19.' But without testing everyone — or at least representative samples — for both the virus itself and the antibodies to it, we can do little better than guess its prevalence, its lethality, and the extent of immunity among the general public.

"Even now, months after the Wuhan outbreak and the first reported case in the U.S., we have managed to test less than 1 percent of the population, and those tests have been limited mainly to people with symptoms severe enough for them to seek treatment. Since people infected by COVID-19 typically experience mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, that's a real problem....  Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimates that 'somewhere between 25 percent and 50 percent' of COVID-19 carriers are asymptomatic. But he cautions that 'right now we are just guessing'....

"Our ignorance about COVID-19 will have profound consequences, potentially leading to an overreaction that wrecks the economy while saving relatively few lives or (less likely, given the current political climate) an underreaction that costs many lives and allows hospitals to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases. You can thank the same agencies on which we are relying to guide us through this crisis."

Read more: https://reason.com/2020/04/08/how-the-cdc-and-the-fda-wrecked-the-economy/
'via Blog this'



Also read: Coronavirus testing failure in Canada, too

Friday, April 10, 2020

Ending CDC monopoly = better COVID-19 testing

A Government Monopoly Led to Botched COVID-19 Test Kits, but Private Labs Are Now Saving the Day | Foundation for Economic Education - Ben Johnson:

March 16, 2020 - "The World Health Organization has declared the coronavirus a global pandemic. As of Friday afternoon, there are 132,000 diagnosed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the global death toll has topped 5,000 people. The fast-spreading virus claimed 196 lives in Italy, on Tuesday alone....

"As the rampaging virus wields its way around the globe, prevention and early detection are key to limiting its reach.... [But] government regulations needlessly slowed the detection process for weeks. Federal regulations barred any labs outside the federal government from developing a test to diagnose coronavirus. When the CDC sent out its test[s] on February 5, it soon learned many of them were defective. The kits produced false positives. The MIT Technology Review explains: ...
FDA rules initially prevented state and commercial labs from developing their own coronavirus diagnostic tests, even if they could develop coronavirus PCR [Polymerase chain reaction] primers on their own. So when the only available test suddenly turned out to be bunk, no one could actually say what primer sets worked.
"The government reversed course on February 29 and allowed private labs to begin developing their own tests. The results have been spectacular.

"The old tests took two to seven days to process.... Within a matter of days of the government dropping its restriction, the Cleveland Clinic developed a test that delivered results within eight hours. The change is due directly to the 'federal government being responsive by changing those regulations,' said Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, at a press conference on Tuesday. The newly instituted, 'unbelievable waiver system' has increased competition by 'bringing the super-large, high throughput companies into the system'....

"An artificial federal government monopoly on testing produced a faulty kit and slowed progress in detecting and fighting the coronavirus. Socialism is an instituted government monopoly, not just on medicine, but on all economic life. The results are inefficiency, a sterile-sounding word until it means that Americans will lose their lives.

"'The great strength the US has always had, not just in virology, is that we’ve always had a wide variety of people and groups working on any given problem,' Keith Jerome, the head of virology at the University of Washington, told the MIT Technology Review. 'When we decided all coronavirus testing had to be done by a single entity, even one as outstanding as CDC, we basically gave away our greatest strength.'

"The basic economic truth that competition improves results lies at the heart of all human endeavor. The enormity of the coronavirus has driven this truth home in grim and unforgettable ways."

Monday, March 30, 2020

Private sector tackling coronavirus emergency

The Private Sector's Heartening Response to COVID-19 | Reason - Veronique de Rugy:

March 26, 2020 - "It's easy to feel depressed and scared these days. News about the impact and death toll of the new coronavirus, COVID-19, is constant. Government responses have been chaotic, ranging from near-indifference to suddenly shutting down the economy, with politicians offering to pay for everything. Yet we shouldn't lose sight of the exceptional vitality that the private sector is demonstrating during this mess. It will make a difference....

"After what can only be described as a multilevel government failure that resulted in the United States having practically no coronavirus tests available for weeks after the onset of the pandemic, the private sector ramped up its production so much that we're now testing 65,000 people every day. This number is bound to grow..... Singapore's Veredus Laboratories, for example, said it will soon release "Lab-on-Chip" kits to test patients for three kinds of coronavirus within two hours. Four American startups had also launched at-home tests for COVID-19, until the Food and Drug Administration unwisely demanded they stop....

"[O]nly a few weeks after the beginning of this outbreak in the United States, many pharmaceutical firms worked at lightning speed to develop a vaccine. Last week, the first doses of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine were administered to a group of volunteers....

"Companies nationwide are shifting resources to produce more masks. The firm 3M, for instance, announced that it 'ramped up to maximum production levels of N95 respirators and doubled our global output to a rate of more than 1.1 billion per year'.... A group of American apparel and textile companies like Fruit of the Loom and Hanesbrands came together almost overnight to create a medical face mask supply chain....

"Researchers trying to understand where best to send supplies or how to mitigate outbreaks are now being helped by Facebook's disease prevention maps that display population density, demographics, and travel patterns. As George Mason University's Tyler Cowen also explains for Bloomberg, 'Skype and Zoom sessions will replace many a class, and the textbook companies are stepping forward with electronic portals that present classroom materials, interactive exercises and grade student answers'....

"In Canada, an anesthetist managed to turn one life-saving ventilator into nine. In Italy, a company used its 3-D printer to manufacture much-needed ventilator valves to be used in that country's overwhelmed hospitals. These entrepreneurs then ... modified 'a snorkeling mask already on the market to create a ventilation-assisted mask for hospitals in need of additional equipment, which was successful when the hospital tested it on a patient in need.' And where I live in Virginia, a couple has been 3D-printing shields to protect N95 masks. The Washingtonian reports, 'For each request received, the Filkos are covering shipping costs and sending four free masks to doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers'....

"Burger King is giving out two free kids' meals to everyone who orders food through their app. U-Haul is providing one month of free storage for students displaced from their universities by the virus."

Read more: https://reason.com/2020/03/26/the-private-sectors-heartening-response-to-covid-19/