Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Government statistics downplaying U.S. inflation

A recent survey found almost half of American parents taking on increased debt to buy their children's back-to-school supplies 

Another Reason to Ban Tik-Tok? | Ron Paul Institute | Ron Paul:

Aug 18, 2025 - "According to the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, prices rose by 2.7 percent over the past year, and by 3.1 percent when the 'volatile' food and housing sectors are removed from the calculation. Markets rose following the release of the CPI since the increase in price inflation was not as high as expected. This led to an increase in expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

"Of course, the CPI numbers are manipulated to understate the true rate, and effects, of inflation. One way this is done is by 'Chained CPI.' This is where the government does not consider consumers impacted by price increases that make their favorite products unaffordable if there are affordable substitutes available – as if government bureaucrats can determine what is and is not an adequate substitute for a good made unaffordable by the Federal Reserve.

"The official government figures do not take into account 'shrinkflation.' This is when a business responds to price inflation by reducing product size and otherwise reducing a good’s quality. Shrinkflation makes it appear that consumers are paying the same prices but in fact they are paying more since they are getting less of the product.

"Examples of 'shrinkflation” include increases in the size of cardboard toilet paper holders by 25 percent. This allows toilet paper companies to reduce the amount of paper per roll while maintaining the same number of rolls per package. 

"Other examples of shrinkflation include using wider bottles with concave bottoms for liquid soap, thus enabling soap manufacturers to hide the 15 percent reduction in the amount of soap per bottle, substituting cheaper vegetable oil for dairy milk in chocolates, and substituting foam pool noodles with an 'angel' hair noodle that contains 40 percent less material. Shrinkflation also exists in the airline industry. Ticket prices may have remained steady, or even declined, but travelers now must pay a fee for many 'frills‘ that used to be included with the ticket, such as baggage check-in, on-flight food and beverage service, and seat selection.

"Those looking for evidence of how inflation is affecting Americans might want to stop looking at CPI reports and instead go on Tik-Tok and other popular social media sites. There they will find videos of parents highlighting the burden placed on the family budget by the skyrocketing price of school supplies. A survey by Bankrate found that 29 percent of family budgets were strained by the growing costs of school supplies, while a survey by Intuit Credit Karma found that 44 percent of parents were going into, or increasing, their family’s debt in order to buy their children school supplies. School supplies prices have even risen at big box retailers like Wal-Mart and Target. Even Dollar Tree has raised some prices to over a dollar!

"The reason so many parents are struggling to afford school supplies is not corporate greed, but the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. The best thing Congress can do for America’s families is cut spending, thus reducing the pressure on the Fed to monetize the federal debt thus further weakening the dollar.

"Congress should also reform the monetary system by passing the Audit the Fed bill and repealing all laws that discourage the use of competing currencies such as precious metals and cryptocurrencies. 

"Sadly, even Tik-Tok videos of parents struggling to afford school supplies will likely not cause Congress to take these steps. Instead, the videos are more likely to cause Congress to renew efforts to ban Tok-Tok."

Copyright © 2025 The Ron Paul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
https://ronpaulinstitute.org/another-reason-to-ban-tik-tok/

Thursday, August 14, 2025

How gov't agencies can manipulate economic data

U.S. president Trump has accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of manipulating economic data for political reasons. Ron Paul says that would be nothing new. 

Newsflash: Governments Lie | Ron Paul Institute | Ron Paul:

August 11, 2025 - "Bureau of Labor Statistics head Dr. Erika McEntarfer is one of the latest persons President Trump has told 'you’re fired.' President Trump said this month that he fired Dr. McEntarfer because the president believed she manipulated jobs data. Manipulations, he stated, include the updated May and June BLS numbers showing the U.S. economy created 258,000 fewer jobs than originally reported, as well as the weaker than expected July jobs report. All of this, the president suggested, was designed to make President Trump look bad.

"Following Dr. McEntarfer’s firing, many commenters worried that President Trump’s actions would create the perception that government unemployment and inflation data is manipulated to produce the numbers desired by the president. A loss of confidence in government statistics could impact demand for US Treasuries ... increasing government’s interest payments.

"President Trump is correct that BLS manipulates statistics related to the economy, but it has been doing so since long before Donald Trump moved to the White House. For example, starting in 1994, the BLS stopped including 'discouraged' workers who have stopped looking for work in the official unemployment figures. The BLS also includes those working part-time as employed even if the only reason they are working part-time is they cannot find full-time work. According to John Williams, publisher of the website Shadow Stats, including discouraged and part-time workers who want full-time work in the unemployment figures increases the unemployment rate by almost 20 percent!

"The government also understates the effects of inflation. One way it does this is by using 'chained CPI.' Chained CPI means that even if price inflation has made steak unaffordable for most Americans, the government does not consider their standard of living lowered if they can buy a 'substitute' such as hamburger. This ignores the fact that if consumers viewed hamburger and steak as equivalent then they would likely have chosen cheaper hamburger before Federal Reserve-caused price inflation made steak unaffordable.... According to John Williams’s Shadow Stats, using a more accurate definition of inflation would increase the inflation rate to as much as 12 percent.

"Manipulating the unemployment and inflation rates allows the government to gaslight the people into believing that the economy is strong and any signs of weakness — such as rising prices or an increase in unemployment in their town — are anomalies that do not reflect the economy’s real condition. Manipulating the inflation figures to understate the true amount of inflation also lowers the 'cost of living' increases the government must provide for veterans, beneficiaries of Social Security, and others. This provides a way for government to cut spending without Congress members having politically difficult votes.

"President Trump has done a service by highlighting that government statistics regarding the economy are manipulated. Many of those criticizing President Trump for endangering the 'credibility' of government’s inflation and unemployment numbers are either unaware of, or more likely have no problem with, manipulating data to fool the public into thinking the welfare-warfare system and the fiat money system are 'working.' They only object to manipulating the data to benefit President Trump. President Trump should ensure the government’s unemployment and inflation figures are as accurate as possible by appointing John Williams of Shadow Stats to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

Copyright © 2025 The Ron Paul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.

https://ronpaulinstitute.org/newsflash-governments-lie/

Shadow Stats: https://www.shadowstats.com/